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*Expansion Draft Analysis - PMoney - 03-23-2020

With the recently released NSFL Expansion news 2 new teams are entering the fray. The chosen GM’s are:

Expansion 1
GM ADwyer87 and CoGM Raven – Honolulu

Expansion 2
GM Frostbite and CoGM RainDelay – TBA

In order for these new teams to enter on a more level playing field, an expansion draft is taking place that you can read about here.

In this post, I will be looking into how the expansion draft might look, through the eyes of each of the current teams and through the expansion GM’s. First, for each of the teams I will be going over their top TPE players in their squad and looking at who they should have on their initial protection lists. Factors like draft year, TPE and recent activity are all important for the players. For the teams, certain positions may be in more need of securing in order to not leave a team with gigantic holes that they can’t fill in the regular draft. Although we won’t know who’s going to be drafted, this should give an idea of who has a lot to lose. Then I will go over the top prospects in each position who are likely to be available to the expansion teams. While the entire roster won’t be filled out from the expansion draft, it’s likely the starting players will be mainly from this draft. The S22 draft class will provide the future for the expansion teams but for next season they need players who can help them win games now. The GM’s will already know their own positional values, but this should give my view on who is likely to get picked

For the purposes on this expansion analysis, I will be looking at the raw stats. Locker room presence and personality are as important as stats, but much harder to quantify. I expect to see different picks to the ones outlined below but without an in-depth knowledge of every friendship in the NSFL, it would be near impossible to factor this into my analysis. I may produce a Mock expansion draft but with so many variables at each pick, it would likely be highly inaccurate.
Lets jump into the teams.

BAL Baltimore Hawks
Automatic Pick: Raven – Corvo Havran QB
The Co-GM for the Honolulu side will automatically be selected from the Hawks. A veteran QB to start the team out will fill the biggest position of need, and potentially the best protected, for an Expansion team. Regression has already set in so this isn’t a long-term solution, but the current second highest TPE QB will be a nice start to the team. On the other side Baltimore have already selected their QB of the future in current Kansas City QB and GM Starboy. Their S21 draft pick will prove to be even more important than they initially thought.
Top 7 TPE players
S15 Walt Green S 1276
S12 Errol Maddox WR 952
S15 Marquees Acho CB 900
S15 Logan Uchiha S 867
S15 Apollo Reed RB 806
S18 Fabricio Baldari DE 588
S12 Raymond Vans LB 576
Notable others
S20 Darrel Williams RB 526
S18 Asher Quinn WR 488

Not having your QB to protect gives Baltimore a little more breathing room in their initial 7 protected players. The first thing to notice from the top 7, is 2 players from the S12 draft class. With the regression for another season and knowing that there are very few seasons of production left from some of these players, some of the older players may miss out on protected status for new rising players. Errol Maddox is still the 7th highest TPE WR in the league and had the highest peak of any player currently in the NSFL. That may very well be the sort of production that secures a protection place but with up and coming receivers Asher Quinn and Chris Kross, Baltimore may still decide to move on. Darrel Williams is the best earner of the entire S20 class and should certainly warrant a spot, probably at the expensive of aging LB Raymond Vans. Protecting 2 running backs could be costly, but the extra protection slot gained from the loss of QB will probably allow them to keep most keep the rest of the team together.

CHI Chicago Butchers
Top 7 TPE
S15 Ryan Leaf Jr RB 1180
S14 Rose Jenkins QB 1036
S15 Ahri Es. WR 1014
S15 Farley Hank RB 768
S12 Thorian Skarsgard DT 739
S19 Sean O’Leary WR 671
S18 Mike Hockhertz LB 658
Notables
S15 Jack Rambo S 631
S14 Leighton Lee LB 556

One of the less interesting lists, but interesting situations. At the top of their TPE standings, Ryan Leaf Jr has made it clear that he wants a trade out of Chicago and in stepping down as GM, is no longer required to be protected in an expansion draft. As a valuable asset in a trade, Chicago couldn’t feasibly let him be drafted in the expansion draft. DT Thorian Skarsgard is the only S12 draftee with serious regression as of now and may be worth moving on from, especially with a strong DT class in S22. However, Chicago are without their 1st and 2nd round picks in the draft and without an active backup, will be trying to retain all the talent they can in their win-now period.

COL Colorado Yeti
Top 7 TPE
S15 Mo Berry LB 1322
S16 Wolfie McDummy QB 1195
S16 Laszlo Forty-Two WR 1124
S17 Bubba Thumper DT 1006
S17 Ashley Owens RB 848
S18 Louisiana Purchase CB 800
S12 James Bishop WR 790
Notables
S15 Tony Gabagool LB 729
S18 Pete Parker S 714
S18 Earl Sauce TE 652
S18 Steco Ocewilder DE 523

A strong top 7 with a variety of positional talent. Unfortunately for the Yeti, they may very well be losing some of this talent. Their S18 class has excelled so far but with only so many protection spots, Pete Parker, Earl Sauce and Steco Ocewilder may be at risk. Aging WR James Bishop will probably not make the cut, but that still only makes room for 1 of these 3, even if it doesn’t go to LB Tony Gabagool. Tough decisions ahead for Colorado.

PHI Philadelphia Liberty
Top 7 TPE
S15 Nacho Varga WR 1309
S15 Richard D’Attoria V S 1181
S16 Sam Torenson RB 1131
S15 Emondov Emoji CB 1069
S15 Lamont McKinnie S 1000
S17 Julian McMorris CB 644
S19 Brock Phoenix QB 626
Notables
S15 Ricardo Morris DT 606
S18 ILove Gimmy DE 541
S18 Fuzzy Dotson RB 541
S20 Venus Powers K/P 522
S20 Randy Vuxta WR 408

The majority of this squad is made up of the S15/16 draftees who are hitting the peak of their TPE before regression hits in a couple of seasons. QB Brock Phoenix is a more recent draftee and has high potential while this group is around. The main question is whether any of the more recent additions can stick around through the expansion draft as they are unlikely to gain the initial protection. With the Butchers first and second round pick in the draft, they should be able to replace any talent they lose.
Edit: With ILove Gimmy being a GM, one of the top 7 is at risk, possibly Julian McMorris

YKW Yellowknife Wraiths
Automatic Pick: RainDelay – Rayne Gordon WR
The Co-GM for the second expansion team will be taken from Yellowknife. The current second highest TPE WR from the S19 class, a solid starting block for an expansion’s offence and a piece for the next few years as an S19 draftee. Yellowknife still have 2 WR’s at a higher TPE than Gordon and although Nate Swift wont be around forever as a S13 draftee, they will still have a solid WR 1-2 for the next couple of seasons and may very well look to drafting WR in the stacked S22 class.
Top 7 TPE
S15 Nero Alexander DE 1389
S14 Cooter Bigsby QB 1088
S13 Johnny Snuggles CB 1038
S13 Nate Swift WR 1003
S15 Giannis Kroustis DT 919
S17 Mervin Leonard CB 895
S18 Maurice Virtanen LB 881
Notables
S18 Mathias Hanyadi RB 700
S18 Bender B Rodriguez WR 691

With 9 players at very high TPE, it will be a difficult decision for YKW. The loss of Rayne Gordon will give them an 8th protection, but there isn’t a good choice for who misses out. Depending on whether the Wraiths are looking to the future, we could see one of the S13 vets allowed to be picked up, with Nate swift having a possible replacement in Bender Rodriguez. The depth behind these initial 9 though means Yellowknife are likely to only lose 1 player.

ARI Arizona Outlaws
Top 7 TPE
S15 Lucas Knight CB 1096
S18 Jay Cue QB 877
S17 Saba Donut WR 871
S15 Jammerson Irving TE 800
S20 Galf Wilf LB 504
S18 Ruff Ruff RB 500
S17 Shane Masters DT 486
Notables
S20 Desmond Scarlett CB 479
S20 Jah Bur’Berry WR 409

A couple of high earning S20 players may make decisions difficult for Arizona. CB Desmond Scarlett and top S20 WR Jah Bur’Berry are both vying for protection and would surely get picked up in the draft if available. This may mean players like Shane Masters miss out on protection as a slightly less glamorous position in an attempt to retain as much talent as possible.

Edit: Desmond Scarlett is a GM player so has to be protected making Jah Bur'Berry more vulnerable

AUS Austin Copperheads
Top 7 TPE
S16 Dermot Lavelle Jr. CB 1231
S16 Easton Cole QB 1159
S16 Mako Mendonca RB 1086
S15 Rod Tidwell WR 1027
S15 Chase Jensen S 893 IA
S17 Honda Edmond LB 764
S16 Peter Larson TE 728
Notables
S18 Net Gaines WR 679
S15 Edmond Beaver-Dantes OL 535
S20 Kyle Idlewyld DE 422
S20 Awkward Sexjoke S 420

Net Gaines may very well slip into the 7 as Safety Chase Jensen appears inactive. Promising S20 recruits have potential to be protected as players of the future of the franchise, but it’s uncertain who you could move out of the 7 and not have immediately snapped up. Both Idlewyld and Sexjoke look like very promising prospects but have a way to go in TPE so may be risked for the known members of the Austin Locker room. None of the top 7 are from any earlier than S15 so the Copperheads are not in need of culling any regressing members unlike some other teams may.

NOLA New Orleans Second Line
Top 7 TPE
S15 Forrest Gump RB 1318
S15 Quenton Bode LB 1210
S15 Johnny Slothface LB 1021 Retiring
S14 Stan Francisco QB 997
S15 Deon Taylor CB 916
S18 David Rector CB 835
S18 Bjorn Ironside DT 792

Notables
S18 Marcella T?riki RB 782
S18 GIvussafare Rubbe OL 771
S16 Blake Faux DT 734
S15 Brave Ulysses OL 727
S19 Austin McCormick TE 712
S19 Mason Blaylock S 655
S18 Xavien Adams CB 592
S17 Jordan Andrews CB 585
S13 Bona’beri Jones WR 561
S19 Jed Podolak WR 536
S19 Mack Arianlacher LB 529
S16 Ben Tu’inukuafe DE 509

When I initially set my bar at roughly 500 TPE for players who may be worth protecting in the initial 7, I didn’t take NOLA into account. With 12 players above this but not top 7, and most of them from more recent draft classes and still active, NOLA are going to be glad of the 3 players taken per team rule. It also highlights some of the reasons behind NOLA’s undefeated start to the season as they look one of the favourites for the S21 Ultimus. Johnny Slothface’s retirement will be leaving a hole in the NOLA LB corps but may be well timed for them as with so many prospects, it may allow them to keep someone who would otherwise be drafted. If they were to go purely off TPE this would then protect Marcella T?riki. This may not be the best move positionally, as T?riki is still the second RB in the depth chart behind Forrest Gump, but keeping the commissioner seems like a safe bet. The top earner of S19 and 3rd overall Tight end Austin McCormick also looks like a player who NOLA would be dying to keep in addition to their top safety and S19 player Mason Blaylock. Something will have to give in NOLA and they look likely to be the first team to 3 players selected. Their strong OL may manage to be kept intact due to how many other potential picks they have.

OCO Orange County Otters
Top 7 TPE
S15 Franklin Armstrong QB 1342
S15 Lanzer Grievous LB 1141
S16 Hugh Mongo WR 1131
S15 AJ Lattimer CB 1073
S18 Tyrone Biggums S 862
S17 Dexter Banks II WR 860
S18 Korrin Abernathy CB 821
Notables
S19 Kacey Dream CB 706
S15 Alex D. K/P 621
S15 Ludicolo Bigby RB 543
S16 Jaylen Storm LB 531
S13 Johnny Blaze TE 510

OCO have a very solid top 7 so may make breaking into it hard. Kacey Dream is an excellent TPE earner in the S19 class, second overall, but may struggle to push out AJ Lattimer and GM Korrin Abernathy who must use a spot. As the only player from S19 or 20 on the Otters top earners, it may be worth keeping Dream for the future if possible. I’m not sure any team would protect a kicker and while most teams will be protecting their RB1, Ludicolo Bigby won’t be quite as lucky with so many players needing protection in the behemoth of Orange County.

SJS San Jose Sabercats
Top 7 TPE
S15 Dan Wright QB 1042
S17 Tyron Brackenridge LB 928
S17 Brayden Ennis DT 810
S12 Freezer Riposte DT 670
S17 Action Jackson WR 624
S12 Trey Staley S 601
S19 Deondre Thomas-Fox WR 473
Notables
S18 Joseph Wozniak S 345 IA
S20 Inspectah Deck LB 312

Fortunately (or possibly unfortunately), the expansion draft may not be a massive worry for the Sabercats this year. The top 7 has a couple of S12 vets who on a different team may be looking at potentially missing out on a spot for more recent draftees with high TPE potential. However, a lot of these players are S21 draftee’s and so are exempt from the draft anyway. This should be a team without too many hard decisions to make on their initial draft list.


Positional rankings
For the new expansion teams, they will be wanting to fill as many of the important positions as possible. The S22 draft will help, but big-name starters will take a few years to develop from there, so expansion drafting is key. Here is a list of each position and my potential top prospects from each. It’s possible not all of these will be available initially and they certainly won’t all be available once teams get to protect more players. It should give an indication of which teams are likely to lose players though.

QB rankings
1. Jack Vega - CHI
2. That’s it

The QB position will be the most well protected in the draft but with Corvo Havran being an automatic selection, only 1 QB is needed. The only QB likely to be unprotected is the current Minnesota Grey Ducks QB, Jack Vega. Recently he has announced he will position switch next year, but an opportunity to lead a new NSFL team could change his mind. Drafted in S19 by the Outlaws, Vega hadn’t been able to take the starting position from Jay Cue and moved to Chicago, it is likely Chicago will give the expansion teams the opportunity to draft him given his unhappiness there. After several successful seasons in the DSFL, it could be time to see if he can run an NSFL offence if Frostbite and RainDelay want to give a more veteran QB the reigns. This may be a pick for a later round as with Honolulu already having it’s QB and Arizona without a lot of top available players, may be available late on. It is more than possible they also look to the regular draft for one of the top QB prospects as they will be at the top of the draft.

RB
1. Fuzzy Dotson – PHI
2. Michael Vincent – COL
3. Ludicolo Bigby - OCO
4. Oriel Drake – YKW

As with QB, most of the top RB’s will be protected. Frostbite will be bringing himself to the second expansion team through the regular draft which will shore up any future RB worries for them, but they may still want to pick up a veteran RB. Fuzzy Dotson is a promising S18 player who may just miss out on protection from Philadelphia as their RB2 but will become a strong RB1 for either expansion team. The 11th highest TPE running back but only 3 of the higher RB’s are from the same season. Activity issues may concern the GM’s without an update in March and having recently stepped down as the Tijuana GM, it is unsure how much Dotson may be around.
Michael Vincent from the Yeti is almost 100 TPE behind but looks to be active and could be a potential RB for the future. Ludicolo Bigby may be the highest TPE RB available and will by a solid running back but appears to be even more inactive so won’t be looked at as a long-term solution for either of the new franchises. Oriel Drake rounds up my RB prospects as another 400+ TPE running back who could help a new franchise but is unlikely to get picked up in the 12 rounds. Watch out for Marcella T?riki though, if the second line decide not to protect their RB2 and commissioner, that could be the #1 pick in this draft.

WR
1. Jed Podolak - NOLA
2. Asher Quinn - BAL
3. Jah Bur’Berry - ARI
4. Randy Vuxta - PHI
5. Jake Dropson - PHI

Rayne Gordon is likely WR1 for the second expansion team, but a position of need for both teams with several WR needed. Jed Podolak is virtually WR1 for the Second Line, but in their stacked squad, may slip through the cracks and become a steal for an expansion team. With 517 yards and 3TD’s in the first 7 games of this season, if he does become available, expect this to be a very high pick. Depending on how Baltimore chooses to proceed with its WR corps, Asher Quinn could be on the board as another high potential WR. With Chris Kross protected as an S21 draftee, protecting both Errol Maddox and Asher Quinn may prove to be too much capital. Quinn has 335 yards on the season and 2 TD’s so would be a welcome addition. If they do protect him, Maddox could easily be on the board as an instant impact starter, if only for a limited time.
Jah Bur’Berry is the top WR from S20 and if the Outlaws don’t protect him, expect him to be a potential pick for an expansion team looking to the future. Randy Vuxta is on his tail for S20, 1 TPE behind and may prove to be more difficult to protect for Philadelphia that Bur’Berry is for Arizona. Dropson is the other Philadelphia WR who makes this list as the promising young receivers for Liberty could be on the move.

TE
1. Austin McCormick - NOLA
2. Earl Sauce - COL
3. Avon Blocksdale Jr. – PHI
4. Johnny Blaze - OCO

Potential picks at TE are all blockbuster players. All 4 of these are above 500 TPE and 3 from S18 or later. Austin McCormick as the top earner in S19 would be an absolute steal if NOLA can’t find a way to protect him and even as a TE could be a heavily contested pick. Earl Sauce and Avon Blocksdale Jr. are both excellent TE’s and we will really see how much the new GM’s value the position. The 4 potentially available players are in the top 6 for all TE’s. Teams may find a way to protect these guys even at the cost of higher TPE players, but with only 1 TE needed per team, 2 might be available.

OL
1. Givussafare Rubbe - NOLA
2. Brave Ulysses - NOLA
3. Edmond Beaver-Dantes - AUS

Although I’m not expecting a rush on OL in the expansion draft, all 3 of the NSFL O Lineman may be up for grabs. Rubbe has an impressive 47 pancakes and 0 sacks allowed in the first 7 games of the season so don’t count the big guy out just yet.

DE
1. ILove Gimmy - PHI Edit: GM player
2. Steco Ocewilder - COL
3. Kyle Idlewyld - AUS
4.Ben Tu’inukuafe – NOLA

A few promising DE may be available to the expansion teams in S18 draftees ILove Gimmy and Steco Ocewilder. 3 and 4 overall for DE, these players would certainly make for a strong D Line if expansion GM’s choose to. Ocewilder has 3 sacks and while Gimmy only has 1 so far, they have poiential to be even better in a few seasons time. Idlewyld has 2 sacks and 6 TFL which from an S20 draftee is already great production. While 100 TPE behind the first 2 on this list, he will more than make up for it by the time he gets a couple more seasons under his belt. A pick for the building of a franchise. Ben Tu’inukuafe should be available to a team drafting heavy DL, but NOLA may be closed for business by then anyway.

DT
1. Bjorn Ironside - NOLA
2. Blake Faux – NOLA
3. Ricardo Morris – PHI
4. Shane Masters - ARI

Think NOLA with DT as Bjorn Ironside may just drop out of protection if they decide to go with Austin McCormick but even if he doesn’t, Blake Faux is a great pickup for a D Line. Ricardo Morris and Shane Masters may both just miss the cut on protection and be available but Faux is the only DT that will certainly be available if the expansion GM’s want DT. It’s also worth mentioning that the current consensus #1 pick in the draft is DT Phat Boi from KCC, and with both the teams having the start of the first round picks, DT may be less on their minds in the expansion draft.

LB
1) Tony Gabagool - COL
2) Mack Arianlacher - NOLA
3) Warren Stephens - PHI
4) Leighton Lee – CHI

Gabagool is likely to be the highest TPE LB available and a solid pickup in the expansion. Future high potential picks in Arianlacher and Stephens could prove popular if GM’s look to the future. Leighton Lee should be available if not.

CB
1) Kacey Dream - OCO
2) Desmond Scarlett - ARI Edit: GM player
3) Xavien Adams - NOLA
4) Jordan Andrews - NOLA
5) Quentin Sinclair - COL

If Kacey Dream fails to get protected as I predict, a S19 CB with that much TPE will get picked up by one of the expansion teams. S20 draftee Desmond Scarlett may be protected but will be a solid CB for the future if not. The pair of NOLA CB’s may well be kept safe by the CB’s and other NOLA players with higher draft importance but would certainly be solid options. Sinclair from Colorado is close in TPE to even Dream, but a couple more seasons under his belt has him slide in my rankings, thankfully for the Yeti.

S
1) Mason Blaylock - NOLA
2) Pete Parker - COL
3) Awkward Sexjoke - AUS
4) Jack Rambo – CHI

Potentially could be some high-ranking Safeties from recent draft classes available. The second highest safety from S18 and the highest from S19 and 20 could be on the initial board if expansion GM’s see it as a position of need.

K/P
1) Venus Powers - PHI
2) Alex D. - OCO

Kickers are people too. Another unlikely role to be picked up inside the 12 but there will be some talent available if the GM’s have had a few too many drinks.

And that’s the lot, I’m sure there are some wild inaccuracies here, but it should shape up to an interesting expansion draft. Aside from QB and possibly RB, there will be a lot of talent initially available before more protection is available and with experienced FO’s in both expansion teams, they should both be ready to rumble in S22. NOLA, PHI and COL look to have the most to lose but with 24 picks and only 3 loses per team, all the teams are going to take a hit.

(4044)

*Expansion Draft Analysis - siddhus - 03-23-2020

very nice article, u beat me to making it Sad

*Expansion Draft Analysis - RotticusScott - 03-23-2020

Sad Yeti noises

*Expansion Draft Analysis - PMoney - 03-23-2020

(03-23-2020, 07:38 PM)siddhus Wrote:very nice article, u beat me to making it Sad
I knew I had to get it out quick Smile
Would love to see your analysis on it too, especially having a bit more experience with some of the teams

*Expansion Draft Analysis - Brucehum - 03-23-2020

Really good indeed.

Has made me rethink what teams I like into the question: "What team would I like to co-GM or GM in the future?" That's a good way to really know what team you like.


*Expansion Draft Analysis - Raven - 03-23-2020

[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=5417262]

*Expansion Draft Analysis - Memento Mori - 03-23-2020

This is great content, appreciate you putting this together.

*Expansion Draft Analysis - speculadora - 03-23-2020

I just scanned this, but Desmond Scarlett is the player of AZ's GM (Unicorn). and ILove Gimmy is - I think - PHI's GM.

*Expansion Draft Analysis - AdamS - 03-23-2020

Goddamn. I thought I at least had til today before someone else wrote this.

I'm still gonna write one but kudos for being first.

*Expansion Draft Analysis - PMoney - 03-23-2020

(03-23-2020, 08:15 PM)speculadora Wrote:I just scanned this, but Desmond Scarlett is the player of AZ's GM (Unicorn). and ILove Gimmy is - I think - PHI's GM.
Damn thanks, for this, I knew some of those GM picks would get me