![[DEV] ISFL Forums](http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/images/emerald/logo.png "[DEV] ISFL Forums"){kind=logo}
+- [DEV] ISFL Forums (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums)
+-- Forum: Community (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff (/showthread.php?tid=20617)
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - mithrandir - 03-30-2020
Building on the fantastic work of @FurFurFurson, this Draft class analysis will examine in further depth his idea of biggest TPE drop-offs at each position, henceforth called the TPE cliff. It is apparent in furfurfurson's work Positional Breakdown(found here) that this draft class has clear tiers demarcated by large TPE cliffs, most notably between max earner and steady earner. These tiers are:
1. Elite early builds (usually TPE 200+)
2. Max earning rookies (TPE from 160-200 depending on position)
3. Latecomers or steady earning rookies (TPE 120-150)
4. Low earners (TPE <120 depending on position)
When combined with Team Needsteam needs (most teams are looking for defensive players), this tier information will create a framework for predicting approximate draft position for all 150 or so active players.
Team needs by position from @benstackinpaper (didn't list OL or K so I estimated)
DE: 10
CB: 9
DT: 7
S: 6
LB: 5
TE: 5
OL: 5
QB: 3
RB: 3
WR: 3
K: 2
Please note: I only listed the players that furfurfurson noted were active in the last 14 days. Without further ado, I will break down each position by tier (including TPE as of last update) and project the approximate rounds for the players in that tier:
DE:
Elite early builds (TPE 201) Projected Round: 1
1. Troen Egghands, 201 TPE @[Troen] - Myrtle Beach
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 164-185) Projected Round 1-4
2. Sandro Ryeu, 185 TPE @[s4ndr0p] - London
3. Patrik Money, 175 TPE @[PMoney] - Kansas City
4. Slinky Claxton, 168 TPE @[Shiznit19] - Portland
5. James Cho, 164 TPE @[cho1325] - Dallas
Latecomers or steady earning rookies (TPE 110-136) Projected Round 5-7
6. Simeon Works, 136 TPE @[juicychase] - London
7. Mario VonPebbles, 120 TPE @[Jangorhino] - Minnesota
8. Ismael Sanchez, 113 TPE @[Ismael8907] - Kansas City
9. Jimmy Frackerson, 110 TPE @[popop143] - Myrtle Beach
Low Earners (TPE 62-88) Projected Round 8+
10. Buster Brownce, 88 TPE @[Jacob.bilyeu18] - Norfolk
11. Beef Buckets, 67 TPE @[Dropology] - Dallas
12. Anthony Brewer, 62 TPE @[NoahFinn] - Myrtle Beach
DE Analysis:
This position group has huge cliffs that easily demarcate the tiers. If you miss out on elite Egghands, then there is a 16 pt drop off to the next tier. Don't wait too long if you need a DE, because there are only four in the max earners tier, followed by a 28 pt cliff!
CB:
Elite early builds: (TPE 215) Projected Round: 1
1. Tyler Oles, Jr., 215 TPE @[To12143] - Portland
Max Earning Rookies: (TPE 166-200) Projected Round 1-5
2. Brandon Booker, 200 TPE @[Memento Mori] - Myrtle Beach
3. Zamir Kehla, 195 TPE @[retrospace111] - Portland
4. Eldrick Avery, 195 TPE @[RansackTheUniverse] - London
5. Thubba Bumper, 193 TPE @[baueranthony9] - Norfolk
6. Cadillac Harris, 183 TPE @[tractorcito_grande] - London
7. Chester Sweets, 182 TPE @[revuhlution] - Kansas City
8. Andrew Witten, 180 TPE @[mithrandir] - Tijuana
9. Colt Mendoza, 180 TPE @[iStegosauruz] - Dallas
10. Ben Stackinpaper, 166 TPE @[benstackinpaper] - London
Latecomers or steady earning rookies (TPE 137-148) Projected Round 5-7
11. Jonathan Altidor, 148 TPE @[ralams123] - Myrtle Beach
12. Alexander Hamilton II, 143 TPE @[Alexander Hamilton II] - Portland
13. Bayden Brosley, 137 TPE @[sensual-snickers-bar] - Norfolk
Low Earners (TPE 66-109) Projected Round 8+
14. Ozamataz Buckshank, 109 TPE @[Ozamataz] - Tijuana
15. Matt Krause, 104 TPE @[Reaper11B] - Minnesota
16. Tyron Shields, 71 TPE @[TheCC] - Minnesota
17. Cody Martin, 66 TPE @[ThiccestBaboon] - Kansas City
18. Ricky Boomhauer, 59 TPE @[Ktown93] - Minnesota
CB Analysis:
Oles, like Egghands, sits alone atop the elite tier at his position. Unlike DE, however, there is a wealth of players in the max earners tier. The next nine CBs are all great players, and this is seen as the deepest position group in the draft, which is lucky for the many teams who need CBs. The cliff is quite stark in this group: If you take out outlier Ben Stackinpaper at 166, there is a 32 pt cliff from 9th to 11th between tiers.
DT:
Elite early builds: (TPE 236) Projected Round: 1
1. Phat Boi, 236 TPE @[BadLck] - Kansas City
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 169-198) Projected Round: 1-4
2. Magnus Rikiya, 198 TPE @[Tesla] - Norfolk
3. Octavio Clemente, 197 TPE @[Billybolo53] - Myrtle Beach
4. Deshun Jones, 193 TPE @[Forty Jordy] - Dallas
5. Mo “Mamba” Magic, 188 TPE @[thevoicelesscreator] - Minnesota
6. Big Edd, 169 TPE @[Big Edd] - Dallas
Latecomers and steady earners (TPE 132-135) Projected Round 6-7
7. Nuniq Annastesia, 135 TPE @[Brucehum] - Kansas City
8. Hank Steel, 132 TPE @[DrChops] - Portland
Low Earners (TPE 67-101) Projected Round 8+
9. Tristan Gronlie, 101 TPE @[WateringCan] - London
10. Claude Miller II, 92 TPE @[Bruins10] - London
11. Clayton Jones, 71 TPE @[SweetPot8erFrys] - London
12. Godrick Fallstrum, 67 TPE @[infyy] - Norfolk
DT Analysis: Phat Boi is so far ahead of the rest of the position group. As the top TPE earner at one of the most needed positions right now, Boi is in the running for the first overall pick. There is a solid group of 5 max earners behind him, with a cliff of 34 points between tiers.
S:
Elite early builds: None
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 174-200) Projected Round: 1-4
1. Matt “Son of Havoc” Cross, 200 TPE @[J0EB] - Norfolk
2. Buck Thornton, 195 TPE @[FurFurFurson] - Minnesota
3. Johnny Hellzapoppin, 194 TPE @[Colabear] - Myrtle Beach
4. Quinn Hughes, 190 TPE @[Isidore94] - London
5. Wesley Eriksen, 178 TPE @[Lightnoir] - Norfolk
6. Eric Barlow, 178 TPE @[Thiath] - Dallas
7. Sebastian Vettel, 174 TPE @[Phalanx32] - Minnesota
Latecomers or steady earners (TPE 145-149) Projected Round 5-6
8. Shawn Dawkins, 149 TPE @[Number 82] - Portland
9. Hamish MacAndrew, 147 TPE @[IthicaHawk] - Dallas
10. LiterallyJust A. Hexagon, 145 TPE @[JPach] - Tijuana
Low Earners (TPE 73-127) Projected Round 7+
11. Magnus Valdyr, 127 TPE @[KamiCommie] - Tijuana
12. Brendan Lanier, 116 TPE @[jdourtled] - Myrtle Beach
13. Abbas Muhammad, 103 TPE @[stupiduglyidiot] - Dallas
14. Ed Ball, 85 TPE @[Qball100] - London
15. Michael Lee, 73 TPE @[Sorrel] - Norfolk
S Analysis:
The safety position lacks an elite player at the top, but has a deep pool of max earners. There is a clear top 7 before the cliff of 26 pts between Vettel and Dawkins. If you miss out on one of the top 7, consider grabbing one of the Steady earners. Hexagon got a late start on earning, but will be a good player at the next level.
LB:
Elite early builds (TPE 205-229) Projected Round: 1
1. Stanislaw Koniecpolski, 229 TPE @[majesiu] - Dallas
2. Derred de Ville, 205 TPE @[Exilizer] - London
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 169-178) Projected Round: 3-5
3. Lawrence Bass, 178 TPE @[RussDrivesTheBus] - Minnesota
4. Fawn Dillmiballs, 171 TPE @[enforcer] - Kansas City
5. Haha Mango-Panda, 169 TPE @[furiousPanda] - Dallas
Latecomers or Steady Earners (TPE 137-157) Projected Round 6-7
6. Mark Radson, 157 TPE @[Ayyylmao] - Myrtle Beach
7. Benson Bayley, Jr., 153 TPE @[BayleyIsland] - Dallas
8. George ‘Corpse Grinder’ Fisher, 147 TPE @[AL_GRINGO] - Tijuana
9. Jack Banks, 137 TPE @[TheRocheLimit] - Norfolk
Low Earners (TPE 90-125) Projected Round 8+
10. Spike Suzuki, 125 TPE @[xbijin] - Norfolk
11. Lloyd Collins, 117 TPE @[SalmonFormula] - Portland
12. Dex Kennedy, 106 TPE @[Dagumpa] - Minnesota
13. Devaunte Sackpieder, 97 TPE @[devaunte] - Tijuana
14. Samuel L. Sackson, Sr., 91 TPE @[Ortecam] - Minnesota
15. Nat Wright, 90 TPE @[nated4444] - Tijuana
LB Analysis:
This position did not have the same cliff between max earners and steady earners that other position groups have had. Instead, the major cliff is between the two elites and the rest of the field, with a 27 pt cliff between de Ville and Bass. If you miss out on the top two prospects, be patient, as there is not a large cliff later on and LBs can be had at any round.
TE:
Elite early builds (TPE 228) Projected Round: 2
1. Jeffrey Phillips, 228 TPE @[DrunkenTeddy] - Dallas
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 182-195) Projected Round: 3-5
2. Heath Evans, 195 TPE @[Feeler] - Myrtle Beach
3. Daniel George, 182 TPE @[dk87gaming] - Portland
Latecomers and Steady earners (TPE 134-151) Projected Round 6
4. James Angler, 151 TPE @[tMuse] - Myrtle Beach
5. Donatello Arrabiata, 134 TPE @[Iamboalfredo] - London
Low Earners (TPE 65-109) Projected Round 9+
6. Von Hayes, 109 TPE @[LimJahey] - Portland
7. Zee Rechs, 92 TPE @[ZootTX] - Dallas
8. Nick Marksman, 81 TPE @[nick900] - Portland
9. Shawn Ansari, 81 TPE @[sreddy969] - Minnesota
10. Douglas MacArthur, 72 TPE @[KingAmazing] - London
11. Tristan Hex - 65 TPE @[hexify] - Dallas
TE Analysis:
Our first offensive position is tight end, which Stackinpaper lists as a need for 5 teams. There are a clear top five in this class, but there are big cliffs between number one Phillips to number two Evans (33 pts), and between max earners and steady earners (31 pts).
OL:
Elite early builds: None
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 167-184) Projected Round: 4-5
1. Calvin Golladay, 184 TPE @[CalvinGolladay] - Tijuana
2. Bruce Buckley, 179 TPE @[NicholasTheGreat] - Myrtle Beach
3. Byron Dolls, 176 TPE @[Symmetrik] - Portland
4. Tommy Sacamano, 167 TPE @[TommyThaMan] - Portland
Latecomers or steady earners (TPE 133) Projected Round 6
5. Joey McCabe, 133 TPE @[Benthicc_Biomancer] - Portland
Low Earners (TPE 60-86) Projected Round 9+
6. Sylvester Berlin, 86 TPE @[Epitaxi] - Tijuana
7. James Carson, 69 TPE @[gold2855] - Tijuana
8. Jorcher Minor, 60 TPE @[ACEPATS] - Myrtle Beach
OL Analysis:
Often left off draft media, these guys deserve credit for the work they've put in. Though it is hard to project which teams will actually pursue drafting offensive linemen, there are four great options at the top of the board, headlined by my awesome teammate Calvin. Once those four are gone, there is a 34 pt cliff to mid rounder McCabe, and a 47 pt cliff down to the low earners. If you didn't get one of the top 4, snatch McCabe up before the OL cupboard is bare.
QB:
Elite early builds Projected Round: 2-5
1. Colby Jack, 222 TPE @[flyeaglesfly29] - London
2. Monterey “Monty” Jack, 205 TPE @[Rradum] - Dallas
3. Jim Waters, 190 TPE @[siddhus] - Tijuana
4. Ben Slothlisberger, 184 TPE @[slothfacekilla] - Tijuana
Max Earning Rookies Projected Round 8+
5. Luke Skywalker, 172 TPE @[muse316] - Norfolk
6. Tom Sofa, 161 TPE @[NamelessNate] - Myrtle Beach
Latecomers or Steady Earners Projected Round 11+
7. Suleiman Ramza, 134 TPE @[Blasoon] - Norfolk
Low Earners Projected Round 13+
8. Sim SnowBow, 85 TPE @[SnowyWolfz] - Minnesota
QB Analysis:
QB is a weird position to project. While we know that the Jack brothers will both go in the second round as obligatory GM picks, it is uncertain how many teams will be pursuing a franchise QB this season. Waters and Slothlisberger are the clear options available for those teams that are in the market, so perhaps we'll see them go to an expansion team. After those four, it seems unlikely that the others will receive much interest in the draft, though credit Mr. Irrelevant and famed Tim Couch impersonator Tom Sofa for making much of his low draft position.
WR:
Elite early builds: None
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 177-197) Projected Round: 2-5
1. William Lim, 197 TPE @[yonggarius] - Dallas
2. Eddie Jeeta, 195 TPE @[QuirkyTurtle] - Kansas City
3. Michael Witheblock, 191 TPE @[sakrosankt] - Kansas City
4. Thomas Passmann, 186 TPE @[StamkosFan] - Tijuana
5. Susan Cash, Jr., 177 TPE @[2Burkeulosis] - London
Latecomers and Steady Earners (TPE 142-166) Projected Round 5-6
6. William Alexander, 166 TPE @[morsy] - Minnesota
7. Nick Kaepercolin, 163 TPE @[Highhaschdi] - London
8. Kevin Koh, 154 TPE @[Coterminity] - Norfolk
9. Mike Lee, 146 TPE @[youngcricket] - Dallas
10. Leeroy Jenkins, 145 TPE @[dahayn] - Myrtle Beach
11. Garfield Despacito, Jr., 142 TPE @[Gwdjohnson] - Myrtle Beach
Low Earners (TPE 74-119) Projected Round 8+
12. Tan Johnson, 119 TPE @[tan5o4] - Kansas City
13. Daymond Brooks, 83 TPE @[ForSucksFake] - Minnesota
14. Friedrich Vequain, 80 TPE @[Sutj] - Tijuana
15. Sean Snyder, 75 TPE @[DatSmolBoi] - Portland
16. Blake Alexander, 74 TPE @[AlexF] - London
WR Analysis:
Wide receiver, like linebacker, is one of the few positions without a cliff between max earners and steady earners. With apologies to Alexander and company, I chose to group the top five receivers in the top tier, though value can be had throughout the top 11, so teams need not reach when the first tier starts drying up. There is still quite a cliff after Despacito at 11th.
RB:
Elite early builds (TPE 221) Projected Round: 2
1. White Goodman, 221 TPE @[gucci] - Dallas
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 172-199) Projected Round: 3-5
2. Acura Skyline, 199 TPE @[Skyline] - London
3. Kichwa Jones, 196 TPE @[howsour] - Dallas
4. Tatsu Nakamura, 193 TPE @[qWest] - Portland
5. Jamar Lackson, 173 TPE @[BenDover] - Minnesota
6. Richard Gilbert, 172 TPE @[SwankyPants31] - Tijuana
Latecomers or steady earners (TPE 137) Projected Round 6
7. Julio Tirtawidjaja, 137 TPE @[indonesianhusker] - Tijuana
Low Earners (TPE 87-122) Projected Round 8+
8. J.B. Apollo, 122 TPE @[Apollo] - Myrtle Beach
9. Kevin Fakon, 117 TPE @[Toastydata] - Kansas City
10. Jacoby Batista, 117 TPE @[Tigerfan895] - London
11. Aaron Feels, 105 TPE @[Soup_man89] - Dallas
12. Zed Keppler, 87 TPE @[sayitundefined] - Portland
RB Analysis:
I sympathize with running backs. They put in hard work just like the rest of us, but they have shorter careers and no one seems to want them. They are one of the lowest prioritized positions in the draft, but there is some good talent in this class. Goodman is alone at the top. Next, there are five great players before a cliff of 35 points between Tijuana teammates Gilbert and Tirtawidjaja. I have it on good authority, however, that Julio T. has a big update coming that is about to put him in the conversation with those others, eliminating the middle tier entirely. Once the update goes through, there will likely be a 40+ pt cliff between #7 Tirtawidjaja and #8 Apollo.
K/P:
Elite early builds: None
Max Earning Rookies (TPE 176) Projected Round: 6-7
1. Matthew McDairmid, 176 TPE @[Matty7478] - Kansas City
Steady Earners (TPE 115-121) Projected Round 11+
2. Kal Solarin, 121 TPE @[Kalakar] - Myrtle Beach
3. Sam Sidekick, 115 TPE @[Evok] - Norfolk
Low Earners (TPE 59-94) Projected Round 13+
4. Jacob Small, 94 TPE @[bjkman] - Tijuana
5. Pseudo QB, 59 TPE @[xxxbruhxxx] - Portland
Kicker is the least valued position in the league, because each team only needs one. That being said, the addition of two expansion teams means that at least McDairmid should draw interest as a solid player.
Conclusions:
Elite Tier
If you are currently over 200 TPE, you will be drafted in the first two rounds; likely in the first round if you are a defensive player.
Max Tier
Excluding K/P, if you are listed in the max earning rookies category for your position, you are likely going to be drafted in the first five rounds. There are 55 of those players and they will probably fill fifty or so of the top 60 picks in the first five rounds. Depending on position, your tier is higher or lower due to supply and demand. Running backs and OL will be in the later rounds of the top sixty, while the max defensive linemen will likely all be gone by the middle of round four. Expect defensive backs to dominate the early rounds, since there is both high supply and high demand. I project over a quarter of the picks made in the first five rounds will be defensive backs. Likely one of the last max tier player selected, I expect kicker McDairmid to still receive interest and get drafted in round six or seven, well before the two max tier QBs, who will likely plummet down draft boards.
Steady Tier
Rounds 5-7 will be filled out by the steady tier. Expect to see a run on deeper positions without clear cliffs such as wide receiver and linebacker in rounds five and six. After teams have drafted top talent at positions of need in the first four rounds, teams will start taking best player available, and LB and WR will have some solid mid-tier value left. Also expect teams to start reaching for players at really thin position groups such as OL and TE. The rest of the steady tier excluding kicker and QB will fill out the rest of rounds six and seven, as teams take fliers on some depth players at defensive line and defensive back.
Low Tier
If you find yourself in this tier, you're definitely waiting till at least the seventh round, but likely longer. With such a deep draft class, some people that are active will fall all the way to the 12th or 13th round. If you happen to be reading this as a member of this tier and want to boost your draft stock, my advice to you is to reach out to GMs and scouts. Let them know that you plan on remaining active. Talk to your DSFL GMs and have them help you earn some TPE. Given how many players there are, you will get lost in the noise, so establish a relationship with a scout or GM so that when their draft board looks empty, they remember that you are an active player.
Unlisted
There are many reasons you might be unlisted. Maybe you have been inactive because you had to move or lost your job because of shutdowns. Maybe I just made a mistake and missed you. Either way, you can also boost your draft stock by following the same advice in the low tier section. Good luck on draft day everyone!
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - slothfacekilla - 03-30-2020
Very impressive stuff
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - DrunkenTeddy - 03-30-2020
Great write-up
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - Matty7478 - 03-30-2020
Love the article, nice job!
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - Exilizer - 03-30-2020
This is what should be getting views, not all the Chicago Drama. Good job, great insight. Thanks!
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - Naosu - 03-30-2020
Nice article but I find it slightly offensive. Why can't I be in elite recreate tier as a rookie?
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - mithrandir - 03-30-2020
Because recreates got an extra couple weeks of earning.
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - Naosu - 03-30-2020
(03-30-2020, 04:06 PM)mithrandir Wrote:Because recreates got an extra couple weeks of earning.
Did I miss out on something? I wasn't allowed to create as S23 until late last week.
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - Billybolo53 - 03-30-2020
(03-30-2020, 11:23 PM)Naosu Wrote:Did I miss out on something? I wasn't allowed to create as S23 until late last week.
No Naosu, you actually get to be the elite recreate for S23 if you max earn. This is for the NSFL S22 draft. You'll be S23
*The Max Earner to Steady Earner TPE Cliff - Ben - 03-31-2020
(03-31-2020, 08:11 AM)slothfacekilla Wrote:Very impressive stuff
Unlike ur tpe level u bum