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+---- Thread: (S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios (/showthread.php?tid=6193)
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - bovovovo - 11-28-2017
In the NSFC, there are three teams who have a shot at the playoffs: The Baltimore Hawks (who need just one win to secure their spot), the Yellowknife Wraiths (who need just one win to secure their spot), and the Philadelphia Liberty (who need to win both of their last two games and need either the Hawks or Wraiths to lose both of their last two games). The Hawks and Wraiths, barring a number of unexpected outcomes, have their playoffs spots locked up and are now battling for home field advantage when they face each other in the playoffs.
Over in the ASFC, the Arizona Outlaws have secured their playoff position, and need just one win to secure home field advantage all the way to the championship. The Otters just need one win to secure their spot, and the Sabercats need the Otters to lose both of their remaining games in order to have any hope of making the playoffs.
The biggest storyline as we prepare for the playoffs is how the Yellowknife Wraiths, a team that lost several key players and was the only team in the league to suffer a “net loss” in the offseason free agency, are in the running to be the #1 NSFC seed.
(209 words)
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - kckolbe - 11-28-2017
Well, let’s talk playoff picture. I’m most likely not gonna be in it. Great question. From now on, can we have players from the Yeti write the prompts? Okay, technically, the Philadelphia Liberty have a chance at the playoffs. Right now the Liberty are a depressing 5-7, sitting in 3rd place in the NSFC. The Hawks and Wraiths, who you would probably rather hear about, are both 7-5, though both have multiple conference losses. The Hawks have lost 3 conference games, one to each opponent, while the Wraiths have lost 2, one at home versus the Liberty, one on the road to the Hawks. The Wraiths are currently the favorites to win the conference, having one game on the road versus Philadelphia, but then basically gets a free win at home versus the Yeti. That would finish them at 8-6 (a record they will have finished at 3 times in 4 seasons) and a conference record of 3-3. The Hawks have a tough road game against the Otters, but then a home game against Philadelphia. The Hawks are heavy underdogs in the first game, but not heavy favorites in the second. The game is effectively a playoff game for Baltimore and Philadelphia.
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - Bzerkap - 11-29-2017
The playoffs are going to hopefully be a bit different this year, with the Wraiths possibly hosting a playoff game and the SaberCats possibly making their first playoff.
In the NSFC we have the Wraiths at the top of the NSFC standings due to a conference record of 2-2 over the Hawks 2-3. After conference record the deciding metric is points for, which the Wraiths have a solid lead in at 314 to the Hawks 275. Realistically there is only one way for the Hawks to get the #1 seed:
Hawks win both games and Wraiths lose at least one game.
This is unlikely due to the Hawks facing the Otters on the road in one matchup and at home against the Liberty in the other. They will probably lose one of these games. The Wraiths also will realistically only lose one game as they face the Liberty on the road and the Yeti at home.
The Liberty could make the playoffs if either the Wraiths or Hawks lose both of their matchups and the Liberty win both of their matchups. This would put both teams at 7-7, however the Liberty have a far superior conference record at 4-0, so any tie would have them breaking that tie. There are actually two scenarios that would allow the Liberty to get into the playoffs:
1. Liberty beat both the Hawks and Wraiths, moving to 7-7. The Hawks also lose to the Otters, moving to 7-7.
This was mentioned before but allows the Liberty to move into second place with a superior conference record. 6-0 vs 2-5
2. Liberty win both games. Wraiths and Hawks lose both games.
Now we have three teams at 7-7. Liberty would be in 1st place with a 6-0 conference record. The Hawks and Wraiths would both have a 2-4 conference record, with points for being the decider. The Wraiths already have a 39 point lead in this category, so it stands to reason that they would be the second team.
Here is how I view the last two weeks playing out:
Week 13
Wraiths lose to Liberty on the road (Wraiths 7-6(2-3), Liberty 6-7(5-0))
Hawks lose to Otters on the road (Hawks 7-6(2-3))
1. Wraiths
2. Hawks
------------
3. Liberty
Week 14
Wraiths beat Yeti at home (Wraiths 8-6(3-3))
Liberty lose to Hawks at home (Hawks 8-6(3-3), Liberty 6-8(5-1))
1. Wraiths on Points For
2. Hawks
-------------
3. Liberty
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - ExemplaryChad - 11-29-2017
Obviously, as a Yeti, my focus has to be on my team. At 1-11, we’ve long been eliminated from playoff contention. A potential reason to watch the playoffs now is for talent scouting. Who might we add in free agency? Who might be available via trade? Who are some backups on other teams that might have a role on our team? Another, more viable, reason for us is watching for the performance of rebuilding teams.
Arizona is, as always, the team to beat right now. They have the most talent, and so they could be a wellspring of players for less competitive teams to take advantage of. Except, wait, that’s not really what happens. Most of them have chosen to stay on for extremely meager contracts in order to help out the team. As fun as it could be to watch Arizona, they will have little to offer in terms of helping the Yeti roster in the coming years. They’re not the only team in this category, either. Most players have, thus far, been willing to stay on for new, team-friendly contracts in the league’s first real free agency period (as rookie contracts were expiring).
So there’s some potential for talent scouting in the playoffs, but not enough to warrant watching extra closely, perhaps. This brings us to the second thing to watch for: successful rebuilds around the league. I’m looking especially at the Sabercats. While they’ve never made the playoffs before, it’s looking quite possible this year, as they’ve managed to stay ahead of the Legion by a whopping four games and are within striking distance of the Otters. At 7-5, they’ve performed as well as both the Hawks and the Wraiths in the NSFC. How have they rebuilt this year? How are they looking right now? And what can we emulate to have more success in the coming seasons?
Word count: 304
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - Roly - 11-29-2017
The DSFL playoffs are almost upon the league as the final Weeks 13 and 14 will be simmed on this Thursday. As the final two weeks come into focus, the Portland Pythons have solidified their grasp on first in the league with a 23-16 win against the favoured East powerhouse San Antonio Marshals. The Marshals, however, are in for a fight in the East with the surging Tijuana Luchadores upsetting the entire league over the course of 7 weeks with 7 wins in a row to nab the first in the East heading into the final two weeks.
With the Chicago Blues and Kansas City Coyotes looking less and less likely to upset a playoff birth, the first two rounds are already clear. The Portland Pythons will face the Norfolk Seawolves, the former on home turf and the latter looking to avenge a horrible regular season series against their West rivals. In the East division, the Marshals will be fighting to snatch home field from the Luchadores who are 1 win up heading into Week 13. Home field advantage hangs in the balance as the final two weeks come to a close, but the Marshals will have to find a way to stop the surging Luchadores regardless.
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207 words(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - ItsJustBarry - 11-29-2017
On the ASFC side of things, the Arizona Outlaws will be the #1 seed per usual. For the #2 seed, The Otters are currently in line for another playoff appearance. Their schedule finishes up with them hosting Baltimore then traveling to San Jose. The Otters have always had the Hawks number and the same can be expected for their week 13 match up. San Jose finishes their season with a trip to Las Vegas followed by a home game against the Otters. Based on my understanding of how tie breakers work, the Otters would need to lose both their games while the Sabercats win out or the Sabercats would need to beat the Otters by 70+ points if the Otters are victorious against the Hawks.
On the NSFC side, it’s a little more hectic. The Wraiths are in 1st place with their last 2 games being at Philadelphia and then hosting the Yeti. If the Wraiths beat Philly, the Hawks clinch their 3rd consecutive playoff berth. If Philly can manage a win against the Wraiths, then the winner of the Hawks / Liberty game will claim the #2 seed. Baltimore can the #1 seed by winning both of their last 2 games and Yellowknife losing at least 1 of their remaining games but I wouldn’t bet any money on this happening.
221 words
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - JohnWachter - 11-29-2017
I think it's safe to assume the Baltimore Hawks wish is was week 6 again. After an undefeated preseason (Which doesn't matter in the standings but is impressibe regardless), they opened the season 5-1. They were the favorites to win the NSFC and looked impressive doing it. Since then, disaster has struck. Baltimore has lost 3 of it's last 4, and 4 of it's last 6. A hopeful season now hangs in the balance.
They still have a chance for the #1 seed in their division, but they'd need to win their last 2 games and have the Wraiths lose at least 1. Winning out won't be easy however, as a tough home stretch awaits them. Next week the play the Otters IN Orange County, a game I expect them to drop. That means all eyes should be on their week 14 matchup against the Liberty.
As things stand, Philadelphia is 2 games behind Baltimore. But with the Hawks expected to lose to Orange County, a win against Yellowknife in Philly would have them controlling their destiny. If they win their last 2 games and Baltimore loses to both them in the Otters, they sneak into the last playoff spot.
In fact, no spot has been clinched in the NSFC as of right now: If Baltimore beats the Otters and loses to the Liberty, as well as having the Liberty win out and Yellowknife losing out, it'll be Baltimore and Philly as the top 2 seeds once again. One Baltimore win means their in, one Yellowknife win means they're in, and scenarios exist where Baltimore loses out and still makes it, as well as Yellowknife.
ANYTHING can happen in the NSFC, and the next set of streams will be must-see (Twitch.)tv.
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - Daybe - 11-29-2017
Written: Must include 200 words. The season is winding down and the playoff picture is getting a bit more clear. Write about some scenarios that could unfold based on the final weeks of play. Who's already eliminated? What needs to happen for a team in the hunt to steal a playoff berth? How's home field shaping up? Etc.
For the Colorado Yeti, their season is all but over. But they won't be playing like it. The Yeti will likely make a full on push to disrupt the playoff picture. Why? Well, they're already guaranteed Andre Bly Jr. in the first round. Unfortunately for the Yeti, it's been a quiet past two seasons, and they're looking to impress the fanbase, and nothing more would stand out to them if they went on a hot streak. Perhaps it would increase ticket sales. Perhaps it would help out locker room morale. But ever since the arrival of co-GM Matthew Vincent, the team has been improving and improving on the gridiron. With Darlane Farlane in the picture for the Yeti now, they have a solid flex option who can be placed in the slot and back up Tweed. Their win over Baltimore cemented those goals, as they certainly aren't backing down at this point. With games with playoff implications coming up, the Yeti could distort some team's chances of their home run Ultimus goals, or prevent a top team from taking home field advantage for the championship game. Only time will tell how talented this team really is, but things are looking up for this Yeti team that actually has reasons to play for all of a sudden.
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - Vikain - 11-29-2017
As of week 12 the playoff picture is pretty interesting to watch. In the NSFC the Colorado Yeti are eliminated from the playoffs with a record of 1 and 11 and fans would be surprised if the team gets another win before the end of the season. Philly has struggled and is sitting in third with a record of 5 and 7 but can see a grace of God if they win both their games and either Yellowknife or Baltimore to lose both of theirs. Philly would have the tiebreaker as they are 4 and 0 in their conference. For Baltimore and Yellowknife they just need to win a game to lock their run in the playoffs. On the other side in ASFC Arizona have clinched the top seed (of course) and Orange County and San Jose are battling their way for the last place. If Orange County wins both games they clinch it, if they win one game and San Jose does not win both their games Orange County clinches it. While the Las Vegas Legion are out with a record of 3 and 9. This should be an interesting two games, the fans will have their eyes glued to the teams and standings.
(S4) - PT #6 - Playoff Scenarios - manicmav36 - 11-29-2017
After back to back NSFC championships, the Baltimore Hawks were finally gaining some much-deserved respect in the NSFL. With only two weeks left in the season, the Hawks are in a pretty decent position to make their third straight playoff. Not great, but decent. For their first game, the will play the Orange County Otters, in Orange County. In 7 games, the Hawks are 2-5 against the Otters, with both win coming while they were at home. The Hawks have never won in Orange County and the word on the street is that the chances of the Hawks pulling it off this season are low. Essentially what it all boils down to is the performance of the Philadelphia Liberty. In order for the Hawks to miss the playoffs, the Liberty must win both of their last 2 games, the first against the Yellowknife Wraiths at home, the second against the Hawks in Baltimore. If the Hawks win at home against the Liberty, they’re in no matter what. If they win both of their games, they have a solid chance at securing home-filed advantage for the NSFC Championship. If the Hawks win out and Wraiths lose either of their games, the Hawks will, for the third straight season, secure homefield advantage for the NSFC Championship game.