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+---- Thread: Should the draft be changed? (/showthread.php?tid=2221)
Should the draft be changed? - Ben - 07-16-2017
(07-17-2017, 01:00 PM)Darnellthebeast Wrote:I feel like this problem will virtually disappear as average TPE increases. Maybe one or two lineman pickups for season 2 but I doubt we'll see any by season 3
This is what I was thinking. As everyone's TPE increases there won't be any value in the new rookies joining, I think this problem is an new league issue and will go away as the league itself grows and by then hopefully the college system will be in place anyway.
In regards to the regression and a "free season" I would hardly call what I got a season of play so I'm not sure where the cut off is going to be if there is something put in place for that. In real life different players find themselves in different circumstances. Chance and opportunity play a huge role in players careers regardless of how good they are so I think that's just life basically. It only affects a small percentage of the league and once the college system is in place after a few more seasons that problem is removed
Should the draft be changed? - manicmav36 - 07-16-2017
I think the real issue that most seem to be over looking is, what is essentially an extra season of play before regression kicks in. That has an effect on everyone, not just those who are being drafted. Sure it would be great to be drafted higher, but as pointed out, it really makes no difference as long as you actually get drafted.
Should the draft be changed? - Blaster - 07-17-2017
But at the same time, is it fair to the "experienced" rookie to be on the same regression as a S1 when they don't have access to the same amount of TPE that a S1 had? (Later time, training camps, etc.)
Should the draft be changed? - manicmav36 - 07-17-2017
(07-17-2017, 12:23 AM)Blaster Wrote:But at the same time, is it fair to the "experienced" rookie to be on the same regression as a S1 when they don't have access to the same amount of TPE that a S1 had? (Later time, training camps, etc.)Valid point, I would say not. Your point does reinforce the argument against the obvious disparity in TPE available to players who didn't join in the middle of S1.
There would have to be some way to limit the amount of TPE earned until it is officially your rookie season. Maybe 1/2 of the usual amount awarded until then? That way you still get rewarded for your work and there isn't a big TPE advantage once regression rolls around.
Should the draft be changed? - Admin - 07-17-2017
How would you feel about two types of rookies when it came to awards and accolades. Something like "True Rookies" and then whatever we would call rookies who have played games already. Could have a true rookie of the year award as well as a normal one. Just spitballing here.
Should the draft be changed? - Jogn - 07-17-2017
(07-16-2017, 10:22 PM)Ballerstorm Wrote:How would you feel about two types of rookies when it came to awards and accolades. Something like "True Rookies" and then whatever we would call rookies who have played games already. Could have a true rookie of the year award as well as a normal one. Just spitballing here.
Tbh I'd rather wait a couple of weeks into the season and see if there's a clear discrepancy in performance.
Should the draft be changed? - 37thchamber - 07-17-2017
(07-17-2017, 06:23 AM)Blaster Wrote:But at the same time, is it fair to the "experienced" rookie to be on the same regression as a S1 when they don't have access to the same amount of TPE that a S1 had? (Later time, training camps, etc.)Maybe implement something that says if you had access to x% of available TPE for a season, it counts as your rookie year? Really it would depend on how much of a disparity we're willing to consider "fair" since there will ALWAYS be one. It's just not possible to avoid, as far as I can tell.
I reckon it would be fairer to say any player who has access to ... let's say 60% or more of the available TPE in their "first" season should be considered a rookie of that season when it comes to regression. Considering a little more than half of all season one players (88/161 by my count) had over 100 TPE at the end of season 1, while a quarter never updated (39/161 still have 50 TPE) and about a quarter (43/161) had 160 TPE or more, I think that might be a better way to address that particular problem.
If you plot the TPE distribution of season one players (using bands of ten points, i.e. 51-60, 61-70 etc etc) according to my records last week on a graph, there are two "clusters": one where you have about 40 players or so in the 80-120 range, and another of about 50 players in the 150-190 range. The mean TPE (ignoring any player with 50 TPE as a player who never updated) is about 135, so 85 TPE earned.
However, assuming the second cluster is people who remained active (because some whose activity dropped off would fall into the first cluster) I would estimate the "true mean" of TPE earned to be about 100, while the highest had about 160. If we take this as an indicator, it looks like the average active player picks up about half of available TPE*. So a player who has access to say... 60-70% of all TPE for a season likely isn't really at a disadvantage later on down the line compared to the others in their draft class. Assuming they get the average yield of TPE, they're maybe 25-30 points behind (2 activity checks * 2pts, 4 predictions * 3pts average inc participation pts, and 3 PTs * 4pts = 28 pts)... Which isn't far off the potential gap between players who sign up on the last day of season one and those who sign up in the week of the draft.
So maybe the trade deadline is a good cutoff for deciding which season is a player's first for regression purposes, actually, and you don't have to worry about calculating % available after all.
I dunno.
* Disclaimer: I didn't go and check how much TPE was actually available in season one, but I'm making educated guesses here. I figure there was about 200, based on the average amount earned and typical success rates on prediction threads etc.
Should the draft be changed? - kckolbe - 07-17-2017
@37thchamber
Your response could be its own article with a bit more work. Great information. Great suggestion.
Should the draft be changed? - manicmav36 - 07-17-2017
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7btPCcdNniyf0ArS/giphy.gif)
Seriously, well done.