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+---- Thread: *S10 Predictions (/showthread.php?tid=10289)
*S10 Predictions - kckolbe - 09-04-2018
By request (yes, from @Dawegg again), here are my season predictions.
NSFC
#1: Baltimore Hawks
Like a lot of sportswriters who don't understand the game that well, I focus a lot on QBs. Well, here's a list of NSFC QBs: Blocksdale, Applehort, Pennington, Noble. For what it's worth, I think Applehort is only slightly worse, and would be in the same tier were the two teams equal in offensive weapons. But, they aren't. Baltimore boasts the best offensive weapons in the entire league, with both the top receiver (Willie), the best overall top 3 WRs (Willie, Browning, Valentine) and the best TE (L'Alto). Of course, should he find himself against a strong pass defense, he can dump off to the best RB (Taylor). Their defense isn't as impressive, however. Despite a strong DL and solid linebackers, the secondary is pretty weak. If the pass rush doesn't work, the coverage will break down pretty easily. However, with the #1 offense and the #2 defense (a very close grouping), Baltimore is easily the best team in the NSFC, for one more season, at least.
#2: Colorado Yeti
After one of the roughest starts to a QB career, Applehort had a great breakout 3rd season (seems to be the trend), and is now recognized as one of the top 3 QBs in the league. On top of that, he has a respectable pair of receivers in Howard Miller and Dwayne Aaron to throw to, giving the Yeti the 3rd best offense in the league. The No Bly Zone intimidates half the field, but the remaining secondary is more liability than anything, giving opposing QBs about a 50% chance of exploiting the pass coverage. #3 offense, #3 defense.
#3: Yellowknife Wraiths
It's a shame to say that Pennington is an upgrade to Akselsen, because last year Pennington was horrible and Akselsen mediocre. This year, Pennington is going to do what Applehort did last year, only likely a little better, while Akselsen regresses in a painful to watch way. I think Yellowknife has the #4 offense this season, with Kennedy and Atwell proving to be very significant upgrades and Lavelle spelling in as well for the occasional big play. On defense, Lavelle and Taylor are solid defenders, but with such a weak defensive line, I just don't see a lot of bad passes being forced. I'd call them the #5 defense. As you can see, there is a significant gap between Colorado and Yellowknife.
#4: Philadelphia Liberty
The only thing this team has won its freedom from is postseason work. Philadelphia will be the worst team in the league this year, though they may not be the worst offense, even with Logan Noble in at QB. He'll suck, but his turnovers will be pretty low for how bad he is. And Marquise Brown will be an upgrade over Darlane Farlane. He could actually challenge the league rushing yards record with all the carries he'll get, especially with a solid OL blocking for him. Add in what somehow isn't the worst WR corps in the league (thanks, Arizona!) due to Carter Bush, I think I have to give them some serious consideration for the #7 offense. Unfortunately, I just see too many drives failing. On defense...Brock has potential, but that's it. #8, and not close.
AFSC
#1: New Orleans Second Line
I think Maximus is the best QB in the league, and with Charlie Law and one last year of Evans, (and little more of Jackson, LeClair, Savea, and DiMirio), he has plenty of options and depth for days. In addition, Darren Smallwood returns at runningback, balancing out the offense. I rank them #2 on offense. On defense, this secondary is amazing. Benson Bayley and Vladimir Fyodorovich will both be dominant on the sides, and Blackford Oakes is ideal for slot coverage. With an adequate pass rush/run stopping line, New Orleans is the best defense in the league.
#2: Orange County Otters
The Boss is gone, but Orange County isn't done (sorry if you expected to see San Jose here, gonna be a rough read). Showbiz, while lower TPE, appears to be no worse than Boss was last year, which actually wasn't that great. What made Boss look top tier was the combination of Crush, Westfield, and Atwell, with Phelps as depth/TE. This year, Atwell is gone, Westfield will regress very hard, but Crush will still be a top guy. All in all, it will be a noticeable drop off for OC (perhaps bigger depending on what happens to Westfield), so I have them as #5 offense overall. On defense, look for Broxton and Winchester to prevent big plays, but for most plays to be successful. I'd rate them the #4 defense.
#3: Arizona Outlaws
Fitzpatrick was a Noble away from being the worst QB in the league last year, and now Chess and Mackworthy have regressed. So why do I have Arizona above San Jose? Blocking. With the best OL in the league, plus a great blocking from TE Crindy, both Fitz and Mackworthy will have a very clean backfield to work out of. In addition, both Crindy and Squanch are improved from last year, not to mention a huge improvement from the QB himself. Expect the offense to take a big step forward, moving up to a close #6. On defense, things are a bit different, and they are hurting outside of Barnes and Morris, and Morris will see snaps on offense. I rank them #7. The number 6 offense and number 7 defense should be last in the conference, but bear with me.
#4: San Jose SaberCats
Yes, I am aware of their acquisition of Akselsen. And their DSFL call-ups. Xavier Flash and Kazimir Oles give Akselsen something Pennington didn't have last year: options. Shane Weston, last year's WR1, now moves to WR3, where he should be at his TPE. Akselsen is 200 TPE ahead of Fitzpatrick, has slightly better WRs (not by much at all), and a slightly worse receiving TE. That said, I have them #7 on offense, and strongly considered them #8, due to expected turnovers. Lagerfield and Akselsen combined for 5 fumbles in one game. When Akselsen was acquired via trade, he was regressed down in intelligence and hands. Lagerfield, their RB, is a fumble machine. Between the two, the turnovers will be unreal, and they won't be behind the kind of OL other bad teams have since they are looking long term and paying their young players well. SJS will have the yards, but the turnovers will hurt big time. On defense, no one stands out, but the additions of Poopsie, Deringer, and Troyski will make an impact. The lack of big playmakers limits them to #6 defense, however. Bear in mind that PA will tell a different story, as turnovers will put that D in difficult situations often.
Let me know what you think!
*S10 Predictions - ItsJustBarry - 09-05-2018
TL;DR
Offense rank
BAL
NOLA
COL
YKW
OCO
ARI
PHI SJS ?
Defensive Rank
NOLA
BAL
COL
OCO
YKW
SJS
ARI
PHI
In depth analysis but I wouldn't expect much less from you. In NSFC, I think you are spot on. It's Baltimore division to lose but as history has shown, we don't make it easy on ourselves. It had to start with a change in the front office but COL is in a position to compete and be relevant for a while.
While I feel the predictions are accurate for the ASFC, I think OCO may not be as potent as you predict but it won't matter if ARI and SJS can't exploit this window of opportunity. Best case scenario, OCO makes the playoffs one more time but their post-season streak will end at 10 for sure.
*S10 Predictions - kckolbe - 09-05-2018
(09-05-2018, 05:48 AM)ItsJustBarry Wrote:TL;DR
Offense rank
BAL
NOLA
COL
YKW
OCO
ARI
PHI SJS ?
Defensive Rank
NOLA
BAL
COL
OCO
YKW
SJS
ARI
PHI
In depth analysis but I wouldn't expect much less from you. In NSFC, I think you are spot on. It's Baltimore division to lose but as history has shown, we don't make it easy on ourselves. It had to start with a change in the front office but COL is in a position to compete and be relevant for a while.
While I feel the predictions are accurate for the ASFC, I think OCO may not be as potent as you predict but it won't matter if ARI and SJS can't exploit this window of opportunity. Best case scenario, OCO makes the playoffs one more time but their post-season streak will end at 10 for sure.
I did end up putting SJS above PHI in offense. As for OCO, they are in the same tier as ARI, as defenses drop off pretty hard after #3. I don't think they are dominant, and they will likely be the 5th best team in the league, though still enough to make the playoffs due to ASFC process of elimination. By S12, ARI will likely be the top team there, but the conference should be very exciting to watch, as all 4 should be competent.
Thanks for the complement, btw.
*S10 Predictions - ItsJustBarry - 09-05-2018
(09-05-2018, 08:05 AM)kckolbe Wrote:they will likely be the 5th best team in the league, though still enough to make the playoffs due to ASFC process of elimination.
Depending on which rules HO chooses to enforce this season, we could see OCO on the outside looking in as the 5th best team. Not likely but I don't write the rules, I just point out how shitty they're worded.
*S10 Predictions - kckolbe - 09-05-2018
(09-05-2018, 06:09 AM)ItsJustBarry Wrote:Depending on which rules HO chooses to enforce this season, we could see OCO on the outside looking in as the 5th best team. Not likely but I don't write the rules, I just point out how shitty they're worded.
I just can't see OCO missing the playoffs. If Westfield got suspended the entire season (which I am not advocating, btw, I just want a TPE penalty), OCO would still be about even with ARI.
*S10 Predictions - speculadora - 09-05-2018
I mean... we'll probably be better next season than we are this season. We lose Westfield, Spector, and Wright, but immediately replace one of the three with a recreate. Arizona and San Jose are going to sustain some serious losses to their defenses just in terms of volume to regression, and SJS will take a slight step back if for no other reason than their QB transition. I like Christ, but he's a mobile build and it'll take him a while to get up to speed.
*S10 Predictions - ItsJustBarry - 09-05-2018
(09-05-2018, 08:25 AM)kckolbe Wrote:I just can't see OCO missing the playoffs. If Westfield got suspended the entire season (which I am not advocating, btw, I just want a TPE penalty), OCO would still be about even with ARI.
If YKW can edge OCO out record wise, per the rule book we could see our first 3 NSFC team representation in the playoffs. Once again not likely, but rules are sometimes rules around here so nothing surprises me anymore.
*S10 Predictions - timeconsumer - 09-05-2018
(09-05-2018, 09:39 AM)ItsJustBarry Wrote:If YKW can edge OCO out record wise, per the rule book we could see our first 3 NSFC team representation in the playoffs. Once again not likely, but rules are sometimes rules around here so nothing surprises me anymore.
Doesn't work that way in the sim
*S10 Predictions - ItsJustBarry - 09-05-2018
(09-05-2018, 09:00 AM)timeconsumer Wrote:Doesn't work that way in the sim
I know that but my point is fix the rule book. Everything doesn't have to open to interpretation or a gray area but HO too busy chasing down 3rd round draft pick leaks when they should be celebrating there was even an active available to draft in the 3rd round.
*S10 Predictions - DeathOnReddit - 09-05-2018
(09-05-2018, 09:11 AM)ItsJustBarry Wrote:I know that but my point is fix the rule book. Everything doesn't have to open to interpretation or a gray area but HO too busy chasing down 3rd round draft pick leaks when they should be celebrating there was even an active available to draft in the 3rd round.
Ok