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+---- Thread: *Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up (/showthread.php?tid=10356)
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*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - kckolbe - 09-15-2018
Okay, @Dawegg didn’t request this, but he probably would have. Here is a mid-ish season follow-up to my initial season predictions.
NSFC
Baltimore Hawks
Initial Prediction: #1 Offense, #2 Defense, #1 in NSFC.
PF: 229 (1st), PA: 104 (2nd), PD: +125 (1st)
Baltimore has been looking strong this season, especially after a Week 2 win over Colorado on the road. Their strength appears to be a defensive line that not only shuts down the run, but gets to the QB in time to prevent the passing game from hurting them. On offense, Owen Taylor is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and is second in the league for rushing yards. At this point, Baltimore appears to have no weaknesses, but they’ve yet to face Maximus, so their defense might get exploited there.
Colorado Yeti
Initial Prediction: #3 Offense, #3 Defense, #2 in NSFC.
PF: 158 (3rd), PA: 149 (5th), PD: +9 (5th)
Colorado has definitely failed to live up to expectations as a possible contender. I could own being wrong, but not really feeling it. I made my picks based on talent, not knowing the two GMs would go MIA on game planning. Technically, Colorado has improved from last year, when they finished with a -14 point differential. However, their remaining schedule actually appears slightly harder, so they will probably slip a bit more.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Initial Prediction: #4 Offense, #5 Defense, #3 in NSFC
PF: 152 (4th), PA: 131 (4th), PD: +21 (4th)
At this point, both Colorado and Yellowknife are tied 3-3, and Yellowknife appears to have the edge, though it should be noted that Colorado and Yellowknife have played each other once, and it was at Yellowknife, so it could very well come down to PF, making it very much a coin flip. The addition of Tegan Atwell, however expensive, has proven to be a valuable one, boosting their passing offense to second in the league. Their pass coverage, however, is 6th in the league, despite the combination of Lavelle and Taylor.
Philadelphia Liberty
Initial Prediction: #8 Offense, #8 Defense, #4 in NSFC
PF: 64 (8th), PA: 240 (8th), PA: -176 (8th)
Remember last year when Philadelphia tried to tank but luck got in the way? This year, they’ve worked out the kinks, and are now on pace for the worst overall season in NSFL history (by point differential). What’s amazing is that Marquise Brown is on track to shatter the current rushing yards record with over 300 yards to spare. However, he still won’t crack the top 4 in fantasy due to lack of touchdowns. The sad part is that next year their defense is actually going to get worse, as about half of it auto-retires after this season.
ASFC
New Orleans Second Line
Initial Prediction: #2 Offense, #1 Defense, #1 in ASFC
PF: 207 (2nd), PA: 103 (1st), PD: +104 (2nd)
I really can’t wait until Baltimore and New Orleans meet this year, as neither of the two match-ups have occurred yet. This year, the talk of the city is Vladimir Fyodorovich, who has finally become relevant on defense, and has exercised his option. This could be a huge damper on the team’s long term hopes, but for the rest of the year, NOLA still boasts the best secondary in the league. After seeing Baltimore’s pass rush, though, I’m not sure New Orleans is still my favorite for the Ultimus.
Orange County Otters
Initial Prediction: #5 Offense, #4 Defense, #2 ASFC
PF: 142 (5th), PA: 108 (3rd), PD: +34 (3rd)
As I mentioned in my QB TANY/A article yesterday, Showbiz has been on fire…when he actually throws the ball. Some of that is due to a combination of Carlito Crush (who should be the undisputed best receiver in the league next season) and Bradley Westfield (who used to be the greatest receiver in the league, but is now just some guy who got away with cheating). Naturally, keeping the defense off the field has helped a lot, but their defense has actually been more than competent, leading the league in pass deflections. All in all, this team has once again proven better than expected.
Arizona Outlaws
Initial Prediction: #6 Offense, #7 Defense, #3 ASFC
PF: 128 (6th), PA: 157 (6th), PD: -29 (6th)
By rank, Arizona is no better than they finished last year, a disturbing sight for an improving team dying to show progress. By record, they are looking about the same, too (though this year they beat Philly). However, the biggest example of their progress is in points. Last year, their offense was 114 points behind the next worst. This year, they are on pace to finish only about 30 points behind. Last year, their defense was 86 points behind the next worst team. This year, on pace for only about 20 points. Considering they currently hold the #2, #3, #10, and #11 picks, Arizona should take a big step forward next year.
San Jose SaberCats
Initial Prediction: #7 Offense, #6 Defense, #4 ASFC
PF: 98 (7th), PA: 186 (7th), PD: -88 (7th)
There were a couple of folks who expected SJS to look a lot better this year. Hell, even I expected them to be slightly better than they’ve actually performed, and I was considered to have been too low on them. As with Colorado, I think strategy is the biggest factor here. I say this at a risky time, since the Outlaws travel to San Jose for their next game, but Arizona appears to have passed San Jose overall, and given SJS’ lack of picks in the first two rounds of the draft, I just don’t see them catching up for many, many seasons.
Overall, I was quite pleased to see each team’s points for match up with my assessment of offensive ability. On defense, however, I was an average of 0.75 off of reality. Of course, points for and points against aren’t exactly comparable to squad performance on each side of the field, and not every team has faced a comparable schedule.
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - manicmav36 - 09-15-2018
Great analysis, as always. Nice work!
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - timeconsumer - 09-15-2018
(09-15-2018, 10:14 PM)kckolbe Wrote:Bradley Westfield (who used to be the greatest receiver in the league, but is now just some guy who got away with cheating)
Dear god, go through every major/minor/inconsequential scandal or error thread this league has ever had and there's Kolbe chirping for us to hang them all. Give it a rest man.
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - Daybe - 09-16-2018
(09-15-2018, 09:59 PM)timeconsumer Wrote:Dear god, go through every major/minor/inconsequential scandal or error thread this league has ever had and there's Kolbe chirping for us to hang them all. Give it a rest man.
BURN THE WITCHES
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - kckolbe - 09-16-2018
(09-15-2018, 09:59 PM)timeconsumer Wrote:Dear god, go through every major/minor/inconsequential scandal or error thread this league has ever had and there's Kolbe chirping for us to hang them all. Give it a rest man.
Hang them? I'm asking for a 50% TPE penalty, the exact same standard we use for cap violations, which is also generally unintentional. Sorry, TC, but you are just in the wrong on this. Just because someone's a good guy doesn't mean breaking the rules is okay. Also, having rules is meaningless if there's no consequence for breaking them. Finally, this wasn't a couple of TPE, or something that lasted for a game or two. This was two seasons of TPE that allowed multiple attributes to be increased. This should be punished using a scaling system like what I proposed.
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - Dangles13 - 09-16-2018
(09-16-2018, 07:07 AM)kckolbe Wrote:Hang them? I'm asking for a 50% TPE penalty, the exact same standard we use for cap violations, which is also generally unintentional. Sorry, TC, but you are just in the wrong on this. Just because someone's a good guy doesn't mean breaking the rules is okay. Also, having rules is meaningless if there's no consequence for breaking them. Finally, this wasn't a couple of TPE, or something that lasted for a game or two. This was two seasons of TPE that allowed multiple attributes to be increased. This should be punished using a scaling system like what I proposed.
If it was accidental then what is the purpose of the punishment?
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - kckolbe - 09-16-2018
(09-16-2018, 07:32 AM)Dangles13 Wrote:If it was accidental then what is the purpose of the punishment?
1) You can never truly know whether or not these kinds of issues are accidental.
2) Even if accidental, the punishment serves as a reminder to pay attention to the rules.
3) Where was this logic with salary cap violations? Really, I am proposing the EXACT SAME system as that, which has been on the books since Season Three and is still employed in the same manner.
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - Dangles13 - 09-16-2018
(09-16-2018, 08:40 AM)kckolbe Wrote:1) You can never truly know whether or not these kinds of issues are accidental.
2) Even if accidental, the punishment serves as a reminder to pay attention to the rules.
3) Where was this logic with salary cap violations? Really, I am proposing the EXACT SAME system as that, which has been on the books since Season Three and is still employed in the same manner.
I'm not too familiar with your proposal, it just seems odd to suggest we punish someone for an accident. If they didn't mean to do it then consequencing them won't make them not make an error again. Instead, we should look to ways to avoid errors like automated updates.
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - kckolbe - 09-16-2018
(09-16-2018, 03:06 PM)Dangles13 Wrote:I'm not too familiar with your proposal, it just seems odd to suggest we punish someone for an accident. If they didn't mean to do it then consequencing them won't make them not make an error again. Instead, we should look to ways to avoid errors like automated updates.
We punish teams every year for accidents, with the exact same scale.
*Kinda Mid-Season Follow-up - 37thchamber - 09-17-2018
(09-16-2018, 11:06 PM)Dangles13 Wrote:Instead, we should look to ways to avoid errors like automated updates.Suggested this a while ago, along with moving to a hosting platform that isn't jcink (so we'd actually have the freedom to do things like that), but there didn't seem to be much follow-up discussion around it. At least not with me.
I know something similar to what I imagined was built for EFL (don't know if it was ever finished tbh, but it looked solid to me), and I know SHL moved the forums to another host and platform, so I know it's all doable, and there are people in the sim league community with the knowledge.
I also proposed a system to avoid budget/cap issues going forward too, at the request of HO.
*shrug*
Though it should probably be noted that a lot of the errors we've seen in the league so far wouldn't be prevented by automating processes anyway. There's a limit to how much we can realistically automate, and there would still need to be human oversight -- which is where most of the errors seem to occur. Best we can hope for is to minimise the opportunity for error by building in checks and balances to alert human end-users when something looks off. Writing code to definitively identify and prevent those issues is nigh impossible in many cases, though, as far as I can tell.