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+---- Thread: *S11 Way Too Early Outlook (/showthread.php?tid=10507)
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*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - kckolbe - 10-02-2018
With the season over and free agency kicking off the day after tomorrow, I thought it might interest some folks to get a sneak peek at next year’s outlook.
Philadelphia Liberty
S10 Record: 0-14
PF: 162
PA: 475
PD: -313
It would be foolish to not at least mention a wonderful article by @BWIII. If you haven’t seen it, check it out. Short version: Noble is being replaced with Falconi (huge upgrade), Stormblessed and Slax will be replaced by Felix Hasselhoff and Jordan Von Matt (combined huge upgrade), Achilles Hondo will be added in as fullback and likely see snaps at TE or maybe backup RB as well (moderate upgrade). I expect their offensive line to lose a bit of TPE as well now that they have folks worth paying, but that should result in nothing more than a slight decrease in run efficiency. Given that Brown will be more efficient due to fewer carries and a passing offense worthy of a bit of attention, that seems a negligible decrease, but I had to mention it. On defense, Nathan Hall will be the sole call-up, moving into an important role at LB. Unfortunately, for a team losing 3 DBs and a DE to retirement, that’s just not enough. Expect Carter Bush to play both sides of the ball, which they now have the offensive depth to get away with. Between call-ups and a deep draft, Philly should easily fill the holes their retirements create. I am not expecting any significant changes due to FA.
Way too early S11 prediction:: 2.5 wins. With San Jose also sporting a second-year QB in Christ, I see those two splitting the series, and I expect a win over Colorado as well. The extra half-win comes from Yellowknife, who they might beat in Philly.
San Jose SaberCats
S10 Record: 4-10
PF: 258
PA: 447
PD: -189
4 wins sounds like one hell of a season for SJS, but according to @timeconsumer’s re-sims and a negative 189 point differential, maybe they overachieved. After a season of…inconsistent performances from Mat Akselsen, San Jose will start by calling up another mobile QB in Joliet Christ. Christ should prove only a slight downgrade, but with another season of improvement from Xavier Flash, Kazimir Oles, and Zapp Brannigan, I think Christ will actually outplay Akselsen by a small amount. Their run game is currently on pace to take a hit with the loss of Lagerfield, but they can rely on the passing game without losing much efficiency. On defense, they lose John Canton, but the call up of Xandra Troski will more than make up for it. They also lose LB Stephen Harrison, but they will pick 18th and 26th, which should be enough to snag a semi-active LB and RB. All in all, San Jose should improve by only a marginal amount. They have a very significant FA in LB Ben Horne, but I have no clue what his plans are. The current #2 LB might be unhappy due to the recent struggles with Pennington as well as being stuck behind Deringer for stats, but he hasn’t voiced it. If he does leave, pretty much every team is in play. Since I can’t make a reasonable prediction as to where he ends up, I am assuming he stays.
Way too early S11 prediction:: 3.5 wins. The huge improvement from Philly will take away one of their wins from last year, but they should make up for it with a win over Colorado. In addition, I think they only have half a shot of beating Arizona at home in S11.
Arizona Outlaws
S10 Record: 4-10
PF: 293
PA: 349
PD: -56
Another 4 win team in the real world of fake sports, Arizona showed, perhaps, the biggest improvement from last year, even if it wasn’t reflected in their record. However, going into S11, they have some big losses to cover. On offense, CA Chess will no longer be available as a depth wide receiver, Mackworthy will be reduced to a shell of his former self, and the offensive line will take a significant step back. LaMarcus Strike might be called up to serve as a backup RB, and ShaDarrien LaMellana will slot in at wide receiver. Improvement from Fitzpatrick, Squanch, and Crindy should boost the passing offense enough to make up for the drop off in the ground game, but changing an offense’s identity isn’t easy. Defense is where things get rocky. DT Ramrio, LBs Hackett, Ernston, and Tiernan, and S Floggity all auto-retire, and S Davis barely dodges the cutoff. Arizona has no one worthwhile to call up, but they do have 4 of the first 11 picks in the S11 draft, plus 19 and 27 as well. That’s 6 picks to replace 5 players, so I just don’t see them struggling.
Way too early S11 prediction:: 7.5 wins. The biggest change comes from Colorado, who gave ARI 0 wins in S10, but I have marked for 1.5 this year. Add in .5 from OCO and an additional .5 from SJS, BAL, and NO, and Arizona has a very decent chance of breaking .500 next year.
Orange County Otters
S10 Record: 7-7
PF: 247
PA: 299
PD: -52
Showbiz had a rough year. Despite the combination of Crush and Westfield for most of the year, he just couldn’t seem to find a rhythm. In S11, with the loss of Bradley Westfield, he would seem unlikely to improve, but 3rd year QBs tend to really hit their stride, so I think he’ll be better despite the loss of a significant weapon, and there are plenty of WRs to pick from deep in the draft. Honestly, though, I am expecting the bigger improvement to come from the running game. As Seer Zephyrous most likely moves to TE, RB Ricky Adams should become both more efficient and more involved. They may even draft another RB, using Adams as a FB, TE2, and RB2 as well. Either way, expect the run game to ease the burden on Showbiz, leading to a much more efficient and versatile offense. In addition, it looks like Atwell will be returning now that there is room on the offense for her. On defense, the biggest loss is easily Marc Spector. With no call-up to replace him, OC will have to draft a DB to take the spot, and I expect their defense to drop off just a little. They also lose kicker Madlad…but is it really a loss? Just as with SJS, there is a major FA in Carlito Crush. Based solely on how little he was traded away for, I believe OCO believes he is coming back or that they had no chance at all of retaining him. The latter seems unlikely, since they fed him pretty well in S9.
Way too early S11 prediction:: 9 wins. Of all the predictions so far, this may seem the most bold, but this was a better team than they appeared to be in the sims.
Yellowknife Wraiths
S10 Record: 8-6
PF: 373
PA: 319
PD: +54
Well, Pennington’s finally decent. He wasn’t exactly blowing it out of the water, but his chemistry with Tegan Atwell seemed to work for both of them, propelling him easily to average QB status. His improvement will likely plateau, however, with the retirement of Brett Kennedy and further regression from Bailey Cook. On defense, however, things are much worse, losing DT Rodriguez, as well as Boss Tweed and Wallace Stone at LB. They do have a cornerback in Jake Verden who will be ready to be called up, but Yellowknife won’t be able to replace close to what they are losing. Tegan Atwell and Robby Rainey are both free agents, and I really didn’t see either going anywhere. However, an article published by Jiggly after I’d damn near finished this really changes that.
Way too early S11 prediction:: 5 wins. While not a good team, I do expect this to be enough to sneak into the playoffs, which will be unfortunate for them as it will hurt their draft picks in a pretty good class.
Colorado Yeti
S10 Record: 9-5
PF: 403
PA: 286
PD: +117
Let me get this out of the way early. I don’t expect Applehort to remain with the team after this year. He’s been pretty vocal about his unhappiness, and the team’s outlook has not gotten brighter since then, with many of their future franchise pieces going inactive. While these appear to be the result of real life demands, it doesn’t change the fact that Applehort is one of only 3 active players. In addition, he didn’t just let his contract run out, but actually opted out. It could be for more money, but he already has close to 30 million in his account, so I think he wants to leave. He would be an upgrade for a lot of teams, but I think the best fit is Baltimore. Blocksdale is coming to the end of his career, but the team has drafted well, and appears to be a playoff contender through S14 with Applehort at QB. So that leaves a kicker and a wide receiver in Baltimore. It’s possible one of them switches to QB, but I am expecting they trade for Wozy or Metaxas and go into another rebuild. Yeah, it’s a painful thought, but Ramero, Sapp, Grau, and Aaron have value to other teams and are unlikely to be part of a championship run in Colorado. Devo Cansino, their one expected call-up next year, could very well end up challenging Brown’s brand new rushing record. Either way, their offense will regress considerably. On defense, the loss of LB Jonathan Saint, who I hope makes the Hall of Fame, CB Terrell Brister, and S Ryan Flock will hurt a bit, but really they will just be a mediocre defense with no real offense.
Way too early S11 prediction:: 3.5 wins. Colorado is in for a rough haul, but with only one remaining semi-active 1st round pick since S7 (Thibault), what else can they really do?
New Orleans Second Line
S10 Record: 11-3
PF: 505
PA: 279
PD: +226
Man, so weird to think that the reigning Ultimus champion used to be the Las Vegas Legion. On offense, Maximus will basically be at his peak (though still has all of S12 to earn as well). The offense around him, however, is another story. Savea is retired, and will likely be replaced by call-up Yobanna-Kanayochukwu, who isn’t quite ready. Mayran Jackson is now retired as well, leaving a gap at WR3. Law and LeClair will still be a completely viable 1/2 WR duo, but both are in clear decline. Smallwood, despite fighting time as well, should still have no issue with running game for one more season. All in all, expect a small decline on the offense, but still one of the best offenses in the league. On defense, however, the trenches are exposed. Jayce Tuck and Juan Andres are retired, and Joseph Askins and Godfrey King are both declining. S10 rookie Lo Rax should be a big part of the defense, but he and Askins have their work cut out for them. New Orleans is still a dominant team, but their window is quickly closing. The biggest question mark is CB Fyodorovich, who is reportedly considering leaving. I don’t see it happening. The only team that looks as likely to win in S11 as NOLA is Baltimore, where he would get very few looks as a receiver. Unless the Second Line sign Crush, which is a possibility, then expect the dominant secondary to remain intact.
Way too early S11 prediction:: 13 wins
Baltimore Hawks
S10 Record: 13-1
PF: 486
PA: 273
PD: +213
Hard to believe Baltimore won two more games despite having a worse point differential than New Orleans. They will have home field advantage in the upcoming Ultimus for a game I am very much looking forward to. As for next year, they currently have to deal with regression from Blocksdale, Taylor, and Willie, and Carter Bush will be returning to Philadelphia. In addition, Bubba Nuck will be retiring. However, Vinny Valentine and Declan Harp have shown they are more than ready for a larger role. And that’s assuming that Blocksdale doesn’t retire to make room for the potential addition of Ryan Applehort. On defense, things are…actually pretty stable as well. Antoine Delacour and Vikain Marmeladov are retiring, and Rove and Turner each take a step back. Fortunately for Baltimore, Damien Arnold and Steven Oats are both available to be called up. All in all, Baltimore appears to be in great position for S11.
Way too early S11 prediction: 12 wins
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - iamslm22 - 10-02-2018
Great read as always! Love it. Turner will unfortunately be retiring as well. I think there are a lot of bold predictions, especially about the Wraiths. I think they'll be better than that by a lot.
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - kckolbe - 10-02-2018
(10-02-2018, 03:27 PM)iamslm22 Wrote:Great read as always! Love it. Turner will unfortunately be retiring as well. I think there are a lot of bold predictions, especially about the Wraiths. I think they'll be better than that by a lot.
It's definitely possible, with Pennington being the 3rd-best QB next year in raw ability, but losing Atwell, Kennedy, Tweed, Stone, and Rodriguez is a lot of damage for a team that was already just one win above 500.
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - speculadora - 10-02-2018
I don't.... disagree... with that much of this. I'd probably go 10-11 wins for BAL as they have some secondary questions to answer but the offense is elite. Also would probably say 11-12 for NOLA as their offense goes deeper into regression, even though that defense is still gonna be scary.
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - kckolbe - 10-02-2018
(10-02-2018, 05:02 PM)speculadora Wrote:I don't.... disagree... with that much of this. I'd probably go 10-11 wins for BAL as they have some secondary questions to answer but the offense is elite. Also would probably say 11-12 for NOLA as their offense goes deeper into regression, even though that defense is still gonna be scary.
BAL has the best pass rush in the league, though, which helps their secondary a lot. Also, Willie and Valentine will likely help out on D.
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - ItsJustBarry - 10-02-2018
(10-02-2018, 07:34 PM)kckolbe Wrote:BAL has the best pass rush in the league, though, which helps their secondary a lot. Also, Willie and Valentine will likely help out on D.
Willie is always willing to help with the D
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - kckolbe - 10-02-2018
(10-02-2018, 05:42 PM)ItsJustBarry Wrote:Willie is always willing to help with the D
You are such a momma's boy.
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - majesiu - 10-03-2018
A really helpful article, both for choosing the next FA destination (though re-signing Crush would rather be a boost to chances that I go back to NOLA than otherwise) and especially with probable call-ups as a DSFL GM.
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - Muford - 10-03-2018
(10-02-2018, 04:02 PM)kckolbe Wrote:They have a very significant FA in LB Ben Horne, but I have no clue what his plans are. The current #2 LB might be unhappy due to the recent struggles with Pennington as well as being stuck behind Deringer for stats, but he hasn’t voiced it. If he does leave, pretty much every team is in play. Since I can’t make a reasonable prediction as to where he ends up, I am assuming he stays.
Ben Horne re-signed on the 29th of September, and there's no Pennington in San Jose
*S11 Way Too Early Outlook - Raven - 10-03-2018
(10-02-2018, 11:02 PM)kckolbe Wrote:As for next year, they currently have to deal with regression from Blocksdale, Taylor, and Willie.
No respect for the kickers