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+---- Thread: *S11 QB Fantasy Rankings (/showthread.php?tid=10722)
*S11 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 10-15-2018
With NSFL fantasy drafting underway, I figured I would release a quick prediction of QB fantasy rankings. Obviously @Trautner already put together a really solid fantasy guide. It’s a great place to go if you want to sanity check any of your picks. Naturally, though, I spend a lot more time looking at QBs.
#1: Ryan Applehort
This one might surprise you a little as Maximus is the better QB, and don’t worry, he’ll show up soon. Applehort, however, is in for a year. The 5th year QB has earned enough TPE to effectively hit his peak, making the difference between him and Maximus almost negligible. It’s the offense around him that really makes the difference. It begins with a full complement of T4 OL, giving him plenty of time to pass. On top of that, add 2 TEs (L’Alto and Harp), who are both maxed in blocking. For those who didn’t read my TANY/A wrap-up last season, Blocksdale benefitted heavily from that outside blocking, leading the league in rushing. That was with a slightly lower TPE OL. Applehort should easily lead in rushing among QBs this year and find himself the least-sacked. Well, that’s nice, but what about actually passing the ball? Trey Willie is still one of the premier wide receivers in the league. Opposite him is Vinny Valentine, a minor downgrade from last year’s Browning and, admittedly, the weakest part of the offense (which say more about the offense). On the inside, L’Alto and Harp provide not only great blocking, but are also better receivers than any team has on the inside. Finally, Nagasawa will be available to rake in catches in depth, not bad for a #5 receiver. The only downside is that I expect a lot of volume from Taylor, who should come close to 5 YPC this year. That will cut slightly into Applehort’s volume, but having the best TD:INT ratio should make up for it.#2: Borkus Maximus
Yeah, I told you he wouldn’t fall far. As the highest TPE QB, Maximus is easily the safe go-to, and they tend to run a high-volume passing offense, which is great for fantasy. Adding Fyodorovich at #1 WR is a big add, ensuring he still has a dominant primary target for big plays. Charlie Law returns as the #2, and while regression is starting to affect him, he is still the #2 #2 in the league (yeah, I had to write it that way). LeClair returns for one last hurrah as a very reliable #3, giving him a better complement of outside receivers than Applehort. Unfortunately, moving the chains will be more difficult. DiMirio returns as the featured TE, likely with Yobanna-whoever working as the TE2 and #5 receiver or the rookie Halvorsen slotting in instead. Comparing these two to L’Alto and Harp just isn’t fair, as they fail to measure up as blockers or receivers. Finally, while they haven’t been purchased yet, it doesn’t seem that NOLA can afford full T4. Expect the most yardage from Maximus, but also more INTs than the other top tier QBs, and likely #2 in TDs.#3: Micycle McCormick
It’s really easy to sleep on this guy with the Yeti burning down around him, but thus far the offense is not only intact, it’s the best it’s ever been. To be fair, Trautner acknowledged in his rankings that should Aaron remain, McCormick was deserving of 3rd or 4th place. I’m only going slightly bolder. If Aaron stays, McCormick is #3. If not…he’s still #4 easily. The Yeti fail to offer the most exciting weapons, but Howard Miller and Dwayne Aaron still look to be a far more than adequate combo. Fox North, Alvin Chipmunk, and Brian Wheat are all adequate for the role required of them. However, the biggest reason for ranking McCormick this high is the offensive line. Along with Baltimore, Colorado boasts a full line of T4 OL. The former kicker isn’t particularly mobile, but with that kind of blocking, he won’t have to be. His receivers will have all day to get open, which counts for a lot. Honestly, I think Colorado currently has a better offense for a QB to thrive in than New Orleans. Again, even if they lose Aaron, they are still a top half offense. Finally, look at McCormick himself. He’s comparable to Applehort in TPE, though, due to re-allocation limits, isn’t as efficiently built. Still, that puts him on par with Pennington in quality. #4: Gus T.T. Showbiz
This is where I see a lot of folks reaching. I get it. Crush and Atwell comprise the best WR duo in the league this year, and adding Sunnycursed for depth certainly won’t hurt. But…you guys know he’s still not in the same tier as the guys above him, right? Last year he had Carlito Crush and Bradley Westfield for 10 games, and during that span he was still significantly below average, and that was an average that included Logan Noble and a sabotaged Mat Akselsen (btw, this should be the best season of average QB play in league history. No Pierno, Noble or even true rookie QBs). He will improve considerably, but do you really think he’ll play at the same level as Applehort or Maximus? At any rate, the offense around him is, I’d say, about equal to New Orleans, around 3rd best. #5: Kevin Fitzpatrick
So…a lot of what I just said about Showbiz applies here as well. Fitzpatrick is a marginally better QB than Showbiz, and outperformed him last year despite weaker weapons. However, this year, with a worse OL and only the addition of Budda Browning to offset it, I am expecting him to…not regress, as he will improve in both efficiency and volume, but to not improve as much as Showbiz. Squanch and Browning will be a far better top 2 than Squanch and Wachter, and Crindy gives him something only one other QB on this list so far has: a good TE. Crindy went all-in on blocking his first two seasons, resulting in only 2 TDs in three seasons of play. However, this offseason was all about becoming a receiver, adding a very valuable weapon up the middle. In addition, Mackworthy will be taking a smaller share of the offense this season (and is someone you want to avoid taking too early, because this year will not be the same).#6: Brad Pennington
His #1 WR, by process of elimination, is Bailey Cook. Granted, he has a couple of great athletes on defense with Lavelle and Taylor, but several other QBs have DBs to call on as well. Pennington will be relying on them. Glenn McPoyal should easily lead the team (and maybe the league) in receptions. Further depth should come from Rainey and Gore, possibly even Summer as well (yeah, the Yellowknife backfield is a bit of a gamble this season). Pennington is a big gamble. He is, in personal talent, better than the next 2 QBs above him, and effectively even with the one above them. He doesn’t need much around him to perform adequately, but with that many targets to receivers with poor hands, I am expecting a horrible completion percentage and interception rate, and he may not get much volume, either, as Yellowknife has the personnel to be the best rushing team in the league if they get the OL for it.#7: Joliet Christ
I won’t spend long on these, since only 6 QBs per group will be picked, but some folks may be wary of Pennington and want to know where to go instead. Well, when in doubt, turn to Christ. That’s something I’ve now said. With Oles and Flash as his primary weapons, the weapons are clearly there. Brannigan has proven himself to be a viable receiver at TE, and the team also added Ty Justice, and still even has Shane Weston for high-volume depth. The weapons are definitely there. The only limitation is the QB himself. Christ is building pretty well as a dedicated pocket passer, and should thrive in a West Coast system, which he has the personnel for, but that’s about all you can ask of him. His arm lacks deep ball strength, and he doesn’t have the pocket mobility to wait for long routes to develop. Being a good one trick pony can get you to adequacy, but don’t expect big numbers. #8: Adriana Falconi:
I can’t say anything about Falconi’s build except that there’s about 170 TPE waiting to be spent. As for the system, the receivers need another year. Bush is a solid WR1, and will likely be the focus of the passing game, but Hasselhoff and VonMatt are developing wonderfully. Another two seasons, and this should be an impressive offense. Unfortunately, there are too many aspects in need of development, and I am expecting Brown to carry most of the burden for another season.*S11 QB Fantasy Rankings - Moosecop - 10-15-2018
Didn't even mention your own 3rd receiver Darren Morris.
*S11 QB Fantasy Rankings - iamslm22 - 10-15-2018
I agree with your rankings here, and I think Apple and Borkus will be very close at seasons end.
*S11 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 11:14 AM)Moosecop Wrote:Didn't even mention your own 3rd receiver Darren Morris.
Several teams use their DBs as receivers. I only barely mentioned it for Yellowknife because they had no other receivers to mention.
*S11 QB Fantasy Rankings - manicmav36 - 10-15-2018
Well there goes my sneaky QB pick.
Thanks. Thanks a lot.
*S11 QB Fantasy Rankings - kckolbe - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 12:45 PM)manicmav36 Wrote:Well there goes my sneaky QB pick.
Thanks. Thanks a lot.
Our group had 4 QBs picked before I posted this
*S11 QB Fantasy Rankings - manicmav36 - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 05:07 PM)kckolbe Wrote:Our group had 4 QBs picked before I posted this
Nope, I reject your reality and substitute my own. Still your fault.