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+---- Thread: *What is Philly Doing? (/showthread.php?tid=10724)
*What is Philly Doing? - iamslm22 - 10-15-2018
The Philadelphia Liberty have gone through a true bottom out rebuild over the past several seasons. After winning the Ultimus in S7 they competed in S8 until deciding to tear it down completely in the middle of the season missing the playoffs. Their decision to tear the team down has been discussed at length, and that is certainly not what I'm going to talk about here. I'm going to talk about two trades they made over the past season that don't make much sense. The first trade they made was semi-defensible in the moment, but now looks absolutely terrible. The second trade is completely indefensible right now, and by the off season could look even worse.
THE FIRST TRADE
PHILLY RECEIVES
The Rights to draft Achilles Hondo
BALTIMORE RECEIVES
4M in Cap Room in S10
16 Overall Pick in the S10 draft
S11 Colorado Yeti 1st round pick
Now this is what the trade was when it was made, but the pieces traded by Philly been taken or traded
What Baltimore wound up with was even better. Baltimore traded the S11 COL first rounder to the Second Line to move down one spot in the draft and pick up a third rounder.
This means Baltimore got the following in Return for Achilles Hondo
4M in Cap Room
Kwame Mbanefo
Damian Arnold
S12 New Orleans 3rd round pick
This is a crazy haul for any player. Lets first discuss the cap space, because while this had value for Baltimore it was irrelevant for Philadelphia. Everyone knew they were not competing in S10 so they had no reason to spend it. It did help Baltimore build a beast Offensive Line that lead to the Ultimus title, but that didn't matter. Lets now discuss the players Baltimore received.
While I love HEOB, trading all this value for a full back was a bold move in the moment, and kind of a crazy one in retrospect. HEOB brings good value to a locker room, but so does @Rabidsponge21. Rabid is a class behind HEOB, but plays a significantly more valuable position, and is already only 60 TPE behind Hondo. I would not trade Mbanefo for Hondo one for one at all. Now add in @Grapehead 's player and it's even worse. Grapehead has been slowly and surely earning TPE for us, and will be playing Nickle Cornerback this year. He is a selfless guy willing to play any defensive position. He is the kind of guy Philly certainly could use on defense.
Those two players alone would make this a great deal, but adding in the fact that Baltimore was able to move down from 6 to 7 because the second line wanted to grab @Ben allowed the Hawks to pick up an extra 3rd rounder. Philly would certainly have been able to make that same exact trade that Baltimore did.
While this trade is largely discussed with hind sight an important thing to remember is that there were serious questions as to how good Colorado would be last year. Philly gave up Colorado's pick while there was at least a 30% chance that pick was in the top 4. It wound up being 6th, but Yellowknife was incredible unlucky, and a couple more breaks their way and this pick wound up at 4th instead of 6th, thus offering potentially even more value in a trade down situation.
But that's the one trade from last season that I wanted to discuss. A rebuilding team going full process should not have traded multiple assets for a full back, no matter how good that full back is. I want to talk about a trade that just happened, and quite frankly its one I don't understand.
THE SECOND TRADE
Philadelphia Receives
Andre Bly Jr.
Eli Kamaka
Colorado Receives
S12 Second Round Pick
OK so before going into the merits of this trade, lets discuss what young assets philly currently has. They have two potential stars at safety in Garnett and Cobalt to along with Lucari Felix. They got a monster steal at DT in @Evok - to go along with a dynamite DE in Brock Weathers III. They have the reigning offensive rookie of the year in Marquise Brown, and some other young dynamic pieces on offense, especially future star Adriana Falconi, with Rogert Batoff and Jordan Van Mott. But this team is not done building. They have two promising Linebackers, but certainly need another future DB and Linebacker along with more help on their defensive line. This team has a young core that seems built well for the future, but they need more pieces for their presumptive S14 title window.
Now lets look at the players they got in this trade. They got Eli Kamaka. A great rental player. He's certainly going to help them in S11 and @PDXBaller is a great LR guy for sure, but PDX has already recreated. Is Philly trying to make the playoffs in S11? I don't think so. So they made this trade, at least partially with S11 in mind. Before going into the merits of that, lets go on to real prize of the trade for Philly - Andre Bly Jr.
Bly is certainly incredible valuable. At 975 TPE Bly is a top flight first rate CB. He's going to help Philly a ton and is going to be amazing for a long time even if he never earns a single bit of TPE. In S12 he's going to be 780 TPE. S13 he'll be 585. S14 he'll be 409 TPE. So that's 4 seasons of a very valuable cornerback. (If Philly is to be contending in S15 they better hope they're not starting a 245 TPE Inactive Corner). So Bly has value to be sure, but is he valuable enough for this kind of haul? With a QB as young as Falconi (and to be clear Falconi is currently 8 out of 8 quarterbacks in TPE), are the Liberty going to be competing in S11-13? That's when Bly will be at his most valuable - so it's definitely a questionable move on its face to trade a second round pick that is almost certainly going to be a top 13 pick (Philly's best case scenario is that this trade boosts them over Yellowknife and Colorado to make the playoffs. If they do then they would certainly be major under dogs in Baltimore, and would almost certainly have a worse record than the two ASFC teams). In the S11 NSFL draft that pick would've gotten you your choice of Yulic Nagasawa, Josh Parker or plenty of others. That's very important to a team that is clearly rebuilding still.
The biggest problem I have with this trade is that it is a complete half measure. All we heard from the Liberty when this sim league version of the process was going down is that the wins are meaningless, all they wanted was good stats for their players and signs of improvement. In S11 they would have seen those things, along with some wins without making this trade. This is a complete derailment of the process, giving up a second round pick for two inactives who likely will not help the Liberty win the Ultimus.
Now I am sure that some Liberty players are going to come in here and trash this article as biased, but I haven't even stated the biggest reason why @dropbear and @infinitempg should be arrested for robbery for this trade. And that starts and ends with @sapp2013.
Has Philly not been paying any attention? They may have just traded a second round pick for two rental players that might not even help them make the playoffs. Sapp was on the site last night, Sapp was in the twitch for the NSFL draft, Sapp attempted to leave Colorado to go to Yellowknife. Do you think Sapp is going to want to stay in Philadelphia? No way. If he manages to make a post within a 14 days of Free agency there's a great chance Philly loses Bly for nothing. Which would mean Philly traded a 2nd round pick for two rental players. For a team like Baltimore, Orange County or New Orleans who are trying to win the Ultimus that would make sense. But for a team like Philly? It's illogical. It makes no sense.
Philly had trusted the process for two and a half seasons. Much like the real life process the management got impatient and abandoned it too early. Good job by Colorado on this trade (and good job by me on the other trade), but really don't get what Philly is doing. I would say prove me wrong, but looking at process over result - this last trade is a loser from the beginning.
*What is Philly Doing? - kckolbe - 10-15-2018
I've written some pretty harsh trade reviews in my day, but this...is pretty spot-on.
Whenever overhauling a team, the first question you have to ask is: are we going for sustained relevance or a championship? If a championship, when would our window be? You then ignore all acquisitions that would cease to be useful prior to that window.
I had Philly's window as beginning S14. Kamaka, therefore, has just over 0 value. Not only will he not be on the team for the championship, he won't be on the team for the preceding seasons to even help attract FAs and show upward momentum. The only reason to sign him would be to boost morale of defensive players who are becoming upset at lack of stats. Well, BWIII is their only veteran defender, and he is a GM. Is the GM losing hope? If so, that is a major problem.
As for Bly, I don't think a 409 TPE CB is of high value. Granted, it's a spot on the roster on any team, but the S12 draft class is guaranteed to have a 2nd round DB who will well exceed that value by S14.
*What is Philly Doing? - iamslm22 - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 12:21 PM)kckolbe Wrote:I've written some pretty harsh trade reviews in my day, but this...is pretty spot-on.
Whenever overhauling a team, the first question you have to ask is: are we going for sustained relevance or a championship? If a championship, when would our window be? You then ignore all acquisitions that would cease to be useful prior to that window.
I had Philly's window as beginning S14. Kamaka, therefore, has just over 0 value. Not only will he not be on the team for the championship, he won't be on the team for the preceding seasons to even help attract FAs and show upward momentum. The only reason to sign him would be to boost morale of defensive players who are becoming upset at lack of stats. Well, BWIII is their only veteran defender, and he is a GM. Is the GM losing hope? If so, that is a major problem.
As for Bly, I don't think a 409 TPE CB is of high value. Granted, it's a spot on the roster on any team, but the S12 draft class is guaranteed to have a 2nd round DB who will well exceed that value by S14.
Yea I completely agree about the CB. I didn't even think about it as a one for one trade of a CB. Lets say they chose a DB there, you're right that they would certainly be in better position to draft a better CB than Bly. And that's IF Sapp stays there. I wouldn't even say the LR was getting impatient, because most of them have been in the DSFL. Brown seems fine with losing for now - and the rest of their team who weren't GMs were in the DSFL. So yea - I really don't get this trade.
*What is Philly Doing? - bovovovo - 10-15-2018
While I largely agree with the points made in this article one perspective is that liberty has to show that they are improving somewhat if they’re going to keep people active and potentially attract FAs
This was pretty much what I did in NOLA... never tanked purposefully and tried to squeeze out the wins where I could because if you get less than like 3 wins a season for multiple seasons no one is going to want to come. I think a prime example is the Yeti who went full rebuild, went 0-14 twice in a row, but had a very hard time keeping people active, not losing players in FA, and attracting FAs.
I personally hate the Bly trade for the reasons you stated but I can at least see what I think is the thought behind it
*What is Philly Doing? - DeathOnReddit - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 12:33 PM)bovovovo Wrote:While I largely agree with the points made in this article one perspective is that liberty has to show that they are improving somewhat if they’re going to keep people active and potentially attract FAs
This was pretty much what I did in NOLA... never tanked purposefully and tried to squeeze out the wins where I could because if you get less than like 3 wins a season for multiple seasons no one is going to want to come. I think a prime example is the Yeti who went full rebuild, went 0-14 twice in a row, but had a very hard time keeping people active, not losing players in FA, and attracting FAs.
I personally hate the Bly trade for the reasons you stated but I can at least see what I think is the thought behind it
I disagree. The bly trade, to me atleast, is a team that thinks theyll make a run sooner. I dont think they will, but idk im not the gm
*What is Philly Doing? - iamslm22 - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 12:33 PM)bovovovo Wrote:While I largely agree with the points made in this article one perspective is that liberty has to show that they are improving somewhat if they’re going to keep people active and potentially attract FAs
This was pretty much what I did in NOLA... never tanked purposefully and tried to squeeze out the wins where I could because if you get less than like 3 wins a season for multiple seasons no one is going to want to come. I think a prime example is the Yeti who went full rebuild, went 0-14 twice in a row, but had a very hard time keeping people active, not losing players in FA, and attracting FAs.
I personally hate the Bly trade for the reasons you stated but I can at least see what I think is the thought behind it
Right but like you said - you never purposefully tanked. If you think the team is better off keeping players then it makes their past trades indefensible. The S12 draft is certainly better than the S10 draft - so how do you explain trading this http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showtopic=9204 and then making the Bly trade. King is more valuable than Kamaka right now. DiMirio also still has value. They never should've completely tanked if they weren't going all in. This trade reeks of desperation
*What is Philly Doing? - bovovovo - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 12:40 PM)iamslm22 Wrote:Right but like you said - you never purposefully tanked. If you think the team is better off keeping players then it makes their past trades indefensible. The S12 draft is certainly better than the S10 draft - so how do you explain trading this http://nsfl.jcink.net/index.php?showtopic=9204 and then making the Bly trade. King is more valuable than Kamaka right now. DiMirio also still has value. They never should've completely tanked if they weren't going all in. This trade reeks of desperation
Never said I agree with anything they’ve done just adding in another perspective that might have been what they were thinking... for better or worse lol I agree that the direction is kinda questionable
*What is Philly Doing? - YoungTB - 10-15-2018
Sure the first trade might be bad in hindsight, but I don't see what there is to hate. We'll absolutely be a run first team for a couple of season while Falconi develops, so why not grab a fantastic young fullback to support the run game for a long time?
Your criticism of the second trade however, I fully disagree with. For one, you're relying on a "What if Bly leaves?" to support your argument which is kinda bogus. Bly wanted out of COL, which is completely understandable after Daybe and general mismanagement by their front office. I'm pretty sure anyone would want out of COL. Bly is coming in as easily the best DB we have right now, hell, he'll be the entire defense's leader. For a needy defense, Bly is a huge steal for us and will be essential in potentially making a run down the line. But, Bly's value for us is for something completely different; acquiring FAs. The process in of itself is a way for us to get better players and to win. We do this by tanking, and building a young core, but how do you expect Philly to sign big name FAs after missing out last season with Fyodovich and others? Well, we need to either constantly be improving or be looking like a team that can win with the help of a big name free agent. Bly along with our other acquisitions from our last two drafts, will absolutely give us wins, and I see us as a fringe playoff team this year. All of this with growth from our incredible young core, we'd need just one big name FA to be legit contenders. I'm not sure what free agency is looking like next year, but if we can get just one high earner, then Philly is suddenly looking like a great team. All of this comes back to the acquisition of a 975 TPE Bly to prime us for becoming a destination team.
*What is Philly Doing? - iamslm22 - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 12:57 PM)YoungTB Wrote:Sure the first trade might be bad in hindsight, but I don't see what there is to hate. We'll absolutely be a run first team for a couple of season while Falconi develops, so why not grab a fantastic young fullback to support the run game for a long time?
Your criticism of the second trade however, I fully disagree with. For one, you're relying on a "What if Bly leaves?" to support your argument which is kinda bogus. Bly wanted out of COL, which is completely understandable after Daybe and general mismanagement by their front office. I'm pretty sure anyone would want out of COL. Bly is coming in as easily the best DB we have right now, hell, he'll be the entire defense's leader. For a needy defense, Bly is a huge steal for us and will be essential in potentially making a run down the line. But, Bly's value for us is for something completely different; acquiring FAs. The process in of itself is a way for us to get better players and to win. We do this by tanking, and building a young core, but how do you expect Philly to sign big name FAs after missing out last season with Fyodovich and others? Well, we need to either constantly be improving or be looking like a team that can win with the help of a big name free agent. Bly along with our other acquisitions from our last two drafts, will absolutely give us wins, and I see us as a fringe playoff team this year. All of this with growth from our incredible young core, we'd need just one big name FA to be legit contenders. I'm not sure what free agency is looking like next year, but if we can get just one high earner, then Philly is suddenly looking like a great team. All of this comes back to the acquisition of a 975 TPE Bly to prime us for becoming a destination team.
I mean ...... is an IA CB really going to convince a big name FA to come to you? If that's what happens then I guess it could be correct. But I think you're underselling the chance Bly leaves. That risk alone makes it not worth a 2nd round pick.
*What is Philly Doing? - Waters - 10-15-2018
(10-15-2018, 01:08 PM)iamslm22 Wrote:I mean ...... is an IA CB really going to convince a big name FA to come to you? If that's what happens then I guess it could be correct. But I think you're underselling the chance Bly leaves. That risk alone makes it not worth a 2nd round pick.I thinl what he meant was that it's not the player itself that has FA value, it's the improvement that a player like that helps bring.