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*W14 Madness - The Possibilities - infinitempg - 11-12-2018

If you hadn't noticed previously, this year's schedule is exactly the same as S10 - but that doesn't mean it hasn't packed excitement going into the last game! We've got all sorts of possibilities for the 4 playoff positions, where HFA can still go in a few different ways. The draft order can also change slightly depending on how those games go.

STANDINGS:
ASFC
1. NOLA 10-3 (5-1) - 424 PF
2. OCO 9-4 (4-2) - 362 PF
3. ARI 5-8 (2-3) - 349 PF
4. SJS 1-12 (0-5) - 212 PF

NSFC
1. BAL 9-4 (4-2) - 379 PF
2. COL 8-5 (4-2) - 391 PF
3. PHI 6-7 (3-2) - 275 PF
4. YKW 4-8 (0-5) - 323 PF

THE GAMES
BAL @ NOLA (NOLA -4.90, O/U 51.59)
OCO @ COL (OCO -2.25, O/U 62.29)
PHI @ YKW (YKW -6.06, O/U 44.13)
ARI @ SJS (ARI -12.04, O/U 46.67)
lines are generated using W13 strategies and depth charts over 200 simulations

WHAT'S CLINCHED?
ASFC Playoff Teams: NOLA, OCO
NSFC Playoff Teams: BAL, COL
ASFC HFA: NOLA (on Conference Record)
Overall HFA: NOLA (on Conference Record)
1OA Pick: SJS

WHAT'S AT STAKE?
NSFC HFA
With both Baltimore and Colorado finishing their conference slate at 4-2 each, it all comes down to the PF if they end with a tied record. Baltimore obviously have the advantage being a game ahead, but Colorado do have the PF advantage. Colorado look to defend their perfect home record against the red hot Otters, while Baltimore travel to New Orleans to take on a formidable Second Line.

BAL clinch with:
BAL W
BAL L + COL L
BAL L + COL W + BAL have more PF

COL clinch with:
COL W + BAL L + COL have more PF

Secondary HFA
If New Orleans lose to Orange County in the ASFC Championship game, the Ultimus could be held at any of the other three cities. Orange County also has the same conference record as both Colorado and Baltimore, meaning in the case of a three way tie we go to a PF fight with Colorado in the lead. While NOLA hasn't lost yet at home this season, this season has shown us that anything can happen.

BAL clinch with:
BAL W + OCO L
BAL W + OCO W + BAL have more PF
BAL L + OCO L + BAL have more PF than BAL AND COL

OCO clinch with:
OCO W + BAL L
OCO W + BAL W + OCO have more PF

COL clinch with:
COL W + BAL L + COL have more PF than BAL AND OCO

Draft Order
The fight on the other end of the ladder is for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th overall picks of this upcoming, prospect-full draft. San Jose has already claimed their spot as 1st overall with a 1-12 performance on the year so far, and Yellowknife look poised to take 2nd. However, Arizona is 1 game "back" on the Wraiths, and Philly is 1 more back on the Outlaws.

Second Overall
YKW clinch 2OA with:
YKW L
YKW W + ARI W
YKW W + ARI L + YKW have fewer PF

ARI clinch 2OA with:
ARI L + YKW W + ARI have fewer PF

Third Overall
YKW clinch 3OA with:
YKW W + ARI L + ARI have fewer PF

ARI clinch 3OA with:
ARI W + YKW L
ARI L + YKW L
ARI L + YKW W + YKW have fewer PF

PHI clinch 3OA with:
PHI L + ARI W + PHI have fewer PF

Fourth Overall
ARI clinch 4OA with:
ARI W + PHI L + PHI have fewer PF

PHI clinch 4OA with:
PHI W
PHI L + ARI W + ARI have fewer PF
PHI L + ARI L

There's a lot to watch for Wednesday night, with every game having some sort of implication. While the playoff teams may be set, a lot of drama can still go on!

*W14 Madness - The Possibilities - Daybe - 11-12-2018

Lemme get uhhhh BAL win and a OCO loss please thank you

*W14 Madness - The Possibilities - infinitempg - 11-12-2018

(11-13-2018, 12:35 AM)Daybe Wrote:Lemme get uhhhh BAL win and a OCO loss please thank you

[Image: THWNVOQ.png]

*W14 Madness - The Possibilities - jordan327 - 11-14-2018

So did you really do 800 simulations for this article?

*W14 Madness - The Possibilities - infinitempg - 11-14-2018

(11-14-2018, 09:36 PM)jordan327 Wrote:So did you really do 800 simulations for this article?
yup! Surprisingly easy actually

*W14 Madness - The Possibilities - kckolbe - 11-14-2018

(11-14-2018, 07:36 PM)jordan327 Wrote:So did you really do 800 simulations for this article?

This is an impressively casual return to the league. You, uh...recreating?