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+---- Thread: * Season 1 - Approximate Value (/showthread.php?tid=11583)
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - JuOSu - 01-16-2019
So, this is it! After a long time of basically doing nothing with it, I decide to finally post it. Why? Well it came up and I might as well make money from the two months I wasted my life on it a while back lol. This was the project that caused me to go inactive in the NSFL. This broke me. I did so much work on this that I just lost interest entirely. And when you see it, oh boy will you know why.
Alright, so what is Approximate Value? It is a stat created by Pro Football Reference I believe. It may have changed a bit in the meantime, but essentially it tries to create a magical number for each player, akin to WAR in baseball, that manages to compare players directly. It does so in a slightly....complex and to be honest a little naive way. Essentially, it's a very complicated formula, that I also had to slightly change to fit this league and our needs (I changed the way Offensive Line was graded for example). Here is a little taste of the formula:
team_offense_points = 100 * (team offensive points per drive) / (league average offensive points per drive)
where
offensive points per drive = (7*(rushTD+passTD) + 3*FG) / (rushTD + passTD + turnovers + punts + FGA)
But really, just read this: https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/appro...ue-methodology/ to understand it all. Trust me, it took me a while to even get it.
Regardless, after I figured it out, I also then had to a) slightly change formulas as mentioned and b) GET a ton of the data in the first place. A lot of the statistics needed for this weren't or aren't available in the file or in the index, so I literally had to go game by game and take down drive stats by hand. And that was just the beginning of the task.
This literally took me a month or two of my time, so yeah....this was extensive work haha.
I will say, this will not seem accurate to a lot of people. The issue with this stat is, it HEAVILY is influenced by team success. Their argument is, if a team isn't doing well (getting a lot of yards or touchdowns), then clearly the player can't be all that valuable. And it essentially gives each team a total amount of value, and then each player on that team gets a portion of that total value compared to other players on their team. So, it's definitely flawed but still interesting.
I will share the entire spreadsheet with all the math so you can see it and also one that just has a list of every player ranked by their Approximate Value. You have to scroll pretty far in the full one to see everything.
Enjoy:
Full spreadsheet with math: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CGj...dit?usp=sharing
Rankings: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1StV...dit?usp=sharing
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - manicmav36 - 01-16-2019
This is awesome! Great work!
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - 37thchamber - 01-17-2019
Well that's... Wow
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - youngcricket - 01-17-2019
hell yeah good stuff bro
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - DeathOnReddit - 01-17-2019
Thats a lot of work
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - PaytonM34 - 01-17-2019
Looking forward to season 2!
Just kidding!
this is awesome! Would be great if the sim could generate this on it's own, or make the stats needed easier to access , AV is one of my favorite comparison stats
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - JuOSu - 01-17-2019
(01-17-2019, 08:36 AM)PaytonM34 Wrote:Looking forward to season 2!
Just kidding!
this is awesome! Would be great if the sim could generate this on it's own, or make the stats needed easier to access , AV is one of my favorite comparison stats
I actually do think I have Season 2 done as well somewhere. Just nothing after that.
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - Beaver - 01-17-2019
Just checking in so I don't get fined.
Also this says that Dermot sucks so it must be pretty good, nice work.
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - iamslm22 - 01-17-2019
(01-17-2019, 05:59 PM)Beaver Wrote:Just checking in so I don't get fined.
Also this says that Dermot sucks so it must be pretty good, nice work.
* Season 1 - Approximate Value - 37thchamber - 01-18-2019
(01-17-2019, 05:36 PM)PaytonM34 Wrote:Would be great if the sim could generate this on it's own, or make the stats needed easier to access , AV is one of my favorite comparison statsA way to scrape a bunch of stats from the play by plays and box scores is something I've been working on. Been on hold for a while now because wiki and other stuff, but I'll figure it out eventually.
Once that's done, things like this can actually be automated.