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*Let's talk about awards - speculadora - 01-19-2019
I wanted to take a look at some of the close awards races this season, particularly two that have generated some discussion and involve some of my players. Be warned, there is a ton of conclusions being lept to in this piece and a lot of wonky stat conversions to try to simplify things. If you have any thoughts about how I did this or how I converted things I'm totally open to those discussions because I enjoy them. Please just don't reeee in the comments if you think something in here is stupid.
Running Back of the Year
The Contenders
Marquise Brown,
Rushing: 374 attempts, 1555 yards, 4.2 yards/attempt, 15 touchdowns
Receiving: 30 receptions, 237 yards, 7.9 yards/reception, 4 touchdowns
Total: 404 touches, 1792 yards, 4.44 yards/touch, 19 touchdowns, 4.7 TD%
Ricky Adams,
Rushing: 161 attempts, 842 yards, 5.2 yards/attempt, 9 touchdowns
Receiving: 90 receptions, 1004 yards, 11.2 yards/reception, 9 touchdowns
Total: 251 touches, 1846 yards, 7.35 yards/touch, 18 touchdowns, 7.2 TD%
At a glance this feels like a runaway win for Adams. He was the more efficient of the two players, out-gained Brown, and scored just one fewer touchdown. All on 153 fewer touches. Yet Adam's 90 receptions and fullback designation in the sim are obvious giveaways that he played some outside WR this season, meaning he was running longer routes than Brown making the efficiencies an unfair comparison. You could also make the argument that because of the amount he played at wide receiver that he isn't truly a running back, but I'm going to dismiss that notion.
Still, to try to make this a more even comparison I'm going to recalculate those stats after lowering Adams' yards/reception to the same level as Marquise Brown's. Essentially the goal is to look at Adams' receiving numbers as if he were simply more adept at catching passes out of the backfield. Presumably with fewer yards per catch he would also have caught fewer touchdowns, so I will calculate his current yards/touchdown and scale his touchdowns down based on his reduced yardage.
So all of that makes the comparison something like this:
Marquise Brown,
Rushing: 374 attempts, 1555 yards, 4.2 yards/attempt, 15 touchdowns
Receiving: 30 receptions, 237 yards, 7.9 yards/reception, 4 touchdowns
Total: 404 touches, 1792 yards, 4.44 yards/touch, 19 touchdowns, 4.7 TD%
Ricky Adams,
Rushing: 161 attempts, 842 yards, 5.2 yards/attempt, 9 touchdowns
Receiving: 90 receptions, 711 yards, 7.9 yards/reception, 6 touchdowns
Total: 251 touches, 1553 yards, 6.19 yards/touch, 15 touchdowns, 6.0 TD%
This is still painfully close. While Brown now out-gained and out-touchdowned Adams, the efficiency divide is still extremely wide. I'm not sure how to value that in this conversation, to be honest. I do know that if Brown had, say, amassed those 1555 yards on something like 500 attempts instead, he would not be getting any votes. A quick calculation puts league average yards/rush among RBs at 4.47, meaning Brown posted fewer yards than would be expected of a league average RB on that number of carries. Brown was also the dominant half of a running back by committee starting in week 3, so it's not clear what the source of his below average efficiency is. Even so, I'm not sure I can call this one. It will come down to how the voters value Adams' receiving output or maybe whether they even consider him in the conversation. Ultimately I believe people have surrounded Adams' candidacy with enough question marks that Brown will win the award, and Adams might win Offensive Player of the Year. I feel like that is a reasonable outcome that respects each player's achievements, but unfortunately it’s not so simple with Fyodorovich having an incredibly strong case for the OPotY award.
Linebacker of the Year
The Contenders
Mason Brown,
Total: 89 tackles, 1 for loss, 2 forced fumbles, 1 recovered fumble, 9 sacks, 4 interceptions, 16 pass deflections, 0 safeties, 1 touchdown
Charlie Trout,
Total: 86 tackles, 0 for loss, 0 forced fumbles, 3 recovered fumbles, 11 sacks, 0 interceptions, 25 pass deflections, 1 safety, 0 touchdowns
A.J. Robertson,
Total: 72 tackles, 0 for loss, 1 forced fumble, 2 recovered fumbles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions, 23 pass deflections, 0 safeties, 1 touchdown
Another tough race to call here. Trout is an absolute lock for defensive rookie of the year, but he's also got a strong case for not only linebacker of the year, but also defensive player of the year. In fact, I think whoever wins this award is going to take home the award for all defenders. Brown had yet another excellent season and this time added some interceptions to his ledger. Robertson might be a surprise inclusion to some, but look at those stats. He was really, really good this season and deserves some love.
Luckily in this race 1-to-1 comparisons are a little bit easier. I think the most efficient way to do this is calculate the difference between the three candidates and reduce as much as we can.
Mason Brown - Charlie Trout: +3 tackles, +1 for loss, +2 forced fumbles, -2 fumble recoveries, -2 sacks, +4 interceptions, -9 pass deflections, -1 safety, +1 touchdown
Mason Brown - A.J. Robertson: +17 tackles, +1 for loss, +1 forced fumble, -1 fumble recovery, +4 sacks, +1 interception, -7 pass deflections
Charlie Trout - A.J. Robertson: +14 tackles, -1 forced fumble, +1 fumble recovery, +6 sacks, -3 interceptions, +2 pass deflections
So to make this as simple as possible, I'm going to use the following conversions of similar stats:
6 tackles or 3 tackles + 1 for loss = 1 Sack
- Converting tackles to sacks feels difficult, because a tackle can come after gaining any number of yards, so I think you need quite a few to equate to a sack. I also wanted to make sure the number held up to comparisons to players with extremely high tackle totals. So if you were to pretend Ricky Ramero cashed in 57 of his tackles and a TFL for 10 sacks, his line would be 82 Tck, 0 TFL, 1 FF, 0 FR, 13 Sck, 1 INT, 7 PD, 0 Sfty, 0 TD - which would still put him well behind these other candidates.
A tackle for loss, on the other hand, is typically only different from a sack by a difference of a few yards. So if we say a tackle for loss is worth, say, half a sack, then a tackle for loss + 3 tackles should be equivalent to a full sack. This is probably the conversion I'm least sure about because tackles are so tough to value, but 6 feels like a number that translates well and accounts for the uncertainty of tackle value.
1 Fumble Recovery = 1 Forced Fumble
- Both sides contribute to a turnover, why make this any more complicated.
3 Pass Deflections = 1 Interception
- If we assume an interception is returned for 0 yards, then these are very close to being equal. Three consecutive PD's would lead to a punt, and while field position would be slightly worse, an extra PD per INT feels gratuitous.
1 Safety = 1 Touchdown
- Not entirely sure about this one either. Obviously a touchdown is worth more points, but with the safety you get the ball back. If you score about a field goal per drive these two are pretty equivalent. I'm not going to bother with the math on touchdowns/drive or play and get a real number. This is easier and reasonable enough to proceed with.
So with these conversions (which you are welcome to debate because I cannot pretend they even resemble perfection), we can simply our comparisons to the following. And a quick note, I'm attempting to simplify everything into the categories on the right above. So everything is going to be in terms of sacks, interceptions, touchdowns, and forced fumbles, even if that means decimals. After conversions, which I have left the step-by-step version out to avoid a complete wall of text), we're left with the following fairly simple comps.
Mason Brown - Charlie Trout: -1 sack, +1 interception
Mason Brown - A.J. Robertson: +7.333 sacks, -1.333 interceptions
Charlie Trout - A.J. Robertson: +8.333 sacks, -2.333 interceptions
So starting with the first comparison, we've reduced Brown vs Trout to a sack vs an interception. I'd personally take the interception because it creates an immediate change of possession. That leaves us with Brown vs Robertson, which is actually a lot closer than I expected and now forces me to compare sacks and interceptions on the fly. This is tough. An interception creates an immediate change in possession, while a couple of sacks almost guarantees a punt and helps even out the field position difference. Still, even if we said you needed four sacks to equate to an interception, which is ridiculous, Brown would hold the advantage over Robertson. With a more reasonable equation I think we could also say Trout holds an advantage over Robertson.
This is still not an easy call and I did a lot of gymnastics to arrive here, but this is the most simplified comparison I can arrive at. I would vote this Brown, Trout, Robertson, in order.
Some Thoughts on the MVP Race
I think this is the toughest MVP decision I’ve seen in my time in the league. I would say there are 3, maybe 4 contenders who you could consider here. I think on offense the main two are Vladimir Fyodorovich (
) and Ricky Adams (). Fyodorovich just posted what is no worse than the 4th best receiving line in league history. I would say maybe only S4 Phelps, S5 Westfield, and S9 Crush have arguments over this season from Fyodo. It’s worth noting, too, that the two Phelps and Westfield both posted those numbers before balance changes that made passing more difficult. Adams, meanwhile, was the best statistical performer on the best team in the league this season, leading the league in combined rushing + receiving yardage and finishing 2nd to Marquise Brown in rushing + receiving touchdowns. There will also probably be some votes for Childish Gambino (), but I would probably disagree with anyone placing him as the MVP. Yes, he was considerably more efficient than any QB in the league, but he also had just the 4th most attempts in the league and finished 6th in touchdown passes. His touchdown rate and interception rate were 4.1% and 1.8%, respectively. Those marks rank 6th and 2nd in the league, respectively. So we’re talking about a quarterback who wasn’t asked to do much but didn’t really blow away the competition like his passer rating would suggest. I would also point out that in S11, Kevin Fitzpatrick was denied a lesser award (QB of the year) on similar arguments despite ranking 1st in all of passer rating, TD%, and INT%, tying for the league lead in touchdowns, and throwing the fewest interceptions of any quarterback in the league. It's my opinion based on that that Gambino doesn’t have a leg to stand on in the MVP discussion. Now, I also think if there were ever a year to consider a defensive player for MVP, this is it. I think that the winner of Defensive Player of the Year, which I would predict goes to Mason Brown (
), could have a strong case. For Brown in particular, his case is bolstered by playing on one of the league’s top defenses and being, by far, the most impactful player on that defense. Still his numbers aren’t eye popping like winners in seasons past, so I’m not sure how much traction he’d get here. I think you could make the case for your preferred Defensive Back of the Year getting the DPotY as well, and then sneaking into the MVP conversation. But, in the end, I believe a linebacker has the best case if a defender will win MVP because of the balanced and full stat line.
*Let's talk about awards - MrStennett - 01-19-2019
*Let's talk about awards - manicmav36 - 01-19-2019
(01-19-2019, 03:15 PM)speculadora Wrote:There will also probably be some votes for Childish Gambino (
When talking about efficiency, you left out two very important stats, yards per attempt and completion percentage... of which Gambino had the best in the league. So not only did he lead the league in yads per attempt, completion %, and QB rating (by a full 6 points!), but he also finished with the second lowest interception %. Not to mention he was also the QB of the the #1 rated team for both points scored and total offense. His biggest knock is that his RBs were great at scoring TDs (combined, they scored 44% more than the next team).
Edit: You mentioned the numbers put up by Fitzpatrick last season. No question they were great, but in what world does the QB of a 6-8 team that also failed to qualify for the playoffs win the MVP?
*Let's talk about awards - ADwyer87 - 01-19-2019
I agree QB definitely shouldn't be the MVP this year, QB performances were way too weak and replaceable to be the most valuable
*Let's talk about awards - speculadora - 01-19-2019
(01-19-2019, 05:21 PM)manicmav36 Wrote:When talking about efficiency, you left out two very important stats, yards per attempt and completion percentage... of which Gambino had the best in the league. So not only did he lead the league in yads per attempt, completion %, and QB rating (by a full 6 points!), but he also finished with the second lowest interception %. Not to mention he was also the QB of the the #1 rated team for both points scored and total offense. His biggest knock is that his RBs were great at scoring TDs (combined, they scored 44% more than the next team).
Edit: You mentioned the numbers put up by Fitzpatrick last season. No question they were great, but in what world does the QB of a 6-8 team that also failed to qualify for the playoffs win the MVP?
yes, those two numbers are very closely tied to his league leading QB rating. but a big knock against Kolbe was despite all of the good numbers he didn't pass that often and finished only 5th in passing yards. To me the same knocks that stood there have to hold up here, even if they're in different stats. Saying he was super efficient is fine, but I can't ignore 3rd in total yards and 6th in touchdowns which to me say Gambino wasn't as relied on by his team as others. He's still QBOTY for my money, just not really an MVP candidate for me.
And just to clarify I mentioned Kolbes numbers in the context of him not winning QB. In other words I guess my point was if Kolbes wasn't even QBOTY despite being better than everyone else, how can I consider Gambino MVP with numbers that were strong in some areas but weak in others.
*Let's talk about awards - YoungTB - 01-19-2019
TDB is getting overlooked in the MVP conversation it seems
*Let's talk about awards - Ben - 01-19-2019
(01-20-2019, 11:37 AM)YoungTB Wrote:TDB is getting overlooked in the MVP conversation it seems
Running back doesn't matter
*Let's talk about awards - timeconsumer - 01-19-2019
Think this will finally be the year the Otters get GMoY?
*Let's talk about awards - run_CMC - 01-20-2019
(01-19-2019, 04:21 PM)manicmav36 Wrote:Edit: You mentioned the numbers put up by Fitzpatrick last season. No question they were great, but in what world does the QB of a 6-8 team that also failed to qualify for the playoffs win the MVP?We had a whopping SIX one possession losses (and just two one possession wins), and our defense was the second worst in the league. Fitz was QBoTY, don’t @ me
*Let's talk about awards - manicmav36 - 01-20-2019
(01-20-2019, 04:38 PM)run_CMC Wrote:We had a whopping SIX one possession losses (and just two one possession wins), and our defense was the second worst in the league. Fitz was QBoTY, don’t @ me
Sounds like the Hawks this season. We finished 8-6, yet all 6 losses were by 7 or less points.