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+---- Thread: *NSFL Mid Season Review (/showthread.php?tid=14341)
*NSFL Mid Season Review - Mooty99 - 07-21-2019
As the NSFL is now official passed the halfway mark in the 16th season (it is well passed now but no moaning!) I thought it would be a good idea to have a look at how it has been going and what to expect for the rest of the season. Now as I am a newbie to all this so don't be offended by my takes but please feel free to complain at me if you fancy.
The most logical place to start is to look at what my predictions were for this season and then jump off from there.
NSFC
1. Yellowknife Wraiths
2. Baltimore Hawks
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3. Philadelphia Liberty
4. Chicago Butchers
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5. Colorado Yeti
ASFC
1. Orange County Otters
2. San Jose Sabre Cats
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3. Arizona Outlaws
4. New Orleans New Line
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5. Austin Copperheads
Trophy Predictions
Regular Season Champion: Orange County Otters
NSFC Runner-up: Baltimore Hawks
NSFC Champion: Yellowknife Wraiths
ASFC Runner-up: Arizona Outlaws
ASFC Champion: Orange County Otters
Ultimus Trophy Champion: Yellowknife Wraiths
How my predictions are looking:
I am the first to admit that my predictions weren't research hugely deeply. I simply looked at the results last season and what the makeup of the teams was before this season started and worked from there.
My predictions for the NFSC currently don't look great, but to get my excuses in early it has turned out to be a really close in this bracket and it is still very much up in the air for how it is all going to turn out. The top 4 of the NFSC are separated by only a single win and I think that it will continue to be tight right up until the final game is played so we will have to wait and see how it all ends.
My predictions for the AFSC are not looking too bad, I have predicted the Otters to top their bracket and be number 1 in the postseason and they are certainly looking good to complete that. I did however expect the Sabre Cats to outperform the Outlaws, but this does not seem likely with the Outlaws putting in some great performances so far.
NSFC
Baltimore Hawks
The reigning champions were always going to have a tricky follow up season, with their team retiring and aging (including their star quarterback). This season is going as can be expected and they have performed better than their Ultimus rivals and other aging team in the AFSC San Jose. Baltimore has had a heavy reliance on star runningback Marquis Brown (who has the 4 most yards so far but most rushing touchdowns) but there new young quarterback is developing well so there future still looks rosie. Baltimore have exchanged wins with rivals Chicago and Yellowknife and taken wins against the 0-8 teams (Austin and Colorado). They currently sit on a knife edge with Yellowknife and Philadelphia on 5-3 fighting it out over a place I'm the postseason.
I feel that this division will not be decided until the last week. While it is hard to tell who will come out on top Baltimore have already played all their matches against the 0-8 teams and now face the rest of the AFSC which could be tricky, especially Arizona and Orange County. Going forward Baltimore are going to have a nail biting second half of the season with some tough away games. I am struggling to decide if they will manage to push into the 3rd spot or not so this choice is a tough call but I back there experience from their Ultimus win to see them safe in the end.
New Predicted Final Position: 3rd
Chicago Butchers
With their rock solid defence Chicago were expected to be the better expansion team this season over Austin but they have really impressed everyone and currently sit top of the very competitive NFSC. They have had good wins with 2 over Yellowknife, a win over Arizona and exchanged wins with Baltimore and are currently on a 3 win streak.
Chicago also have the benefit of an easier second half of the season than their rivals, barring a couple of tough fixtures against Orange County and Philadelphia they have easier matches with home games against Austin and San Jose. With all this in mind I expect Chicago and Yellowknife to fight it out over the top NFSC spot but with the extra win I put Chicago in pole position to make it their own and get the auto win/bye to the NFSC championship game.
New Predicted Final Position: 1st
Colorado Yeti
Poor old Colorado, they were the whipping boys last season and it is no different this season. They have been losing but have had a couple of close games. But let's not be too down, like Austin they are in this position due to having a true rookie quarterback who is only going to improve season on season and have a really good crop of active season 15 players they can and will improve so hopefully they will not be in the same position next year.
I don't expect the rest of the season to go that well for Colorado unfortunately with more of the same defeats to come. One beacon of hope for this team of cryptid mountain dwellers is in week 11 when they head to Austin to face off in the newly dubbed 'tank bowl' for the number 1 draft pick, mark that down on your calendar everyone it will be a cracker as at least 1 team should finally get a big fat W.
Same Predicted Final Position: 5th
Philadelphia Liberty
Philadelphia are another team that are in this epic fight that I have already talked about at length going on in the NSFC for a playoff spot as they also sit at 5-3. They have a strong and well balanced team however their offensive stars will unfortunately start to decline next season. Philip had a decent start to the season with wins over both Baltimore and Chicago and a close loss to Yellowknife. They have however struggled against the top ASFC teams they have faced so far unfortunately for them.
Philadelphia in some ways hold the key to the NSFC with games still to play against their 3 division rivals as well as the lesser 2 ASFC teams (which they would hope to win), but I fear that they may struggle a little more than they have so far against their NSFC rivals. I have really struggled to say if Philadelphia or Baltimore will take the 3rd (and final true post season) spot but in the end I have gone with Baltimore, I fear this could be a terrible mistake so apologise in advance if I have got it massively wrong!
New Predicted Final Position: 4th
Yellowknife Wraiths
I have been a little disappointed by Yellowknife so far, they have struggled more than I thought they would as I had considered them the best team in the NSFC at the start of the season. They have a good looking team with a strong secondary, young and improving D line and a solid overall offense. They has so far blown hot and cold with good wins over Orange County and Baltimore but the double loss to Chicago has hurt them and there hopes of finishing 1st as I originally predicted.
Looking forward to their remaining game Yellowknife can breathe a bit easier than their rivals as in my humble opinion they have the easiest second half to the season comparatively than Baltimore or Philadelphia. They only have 2 really tricky games out of the remaining 5 left which are away at Philadelphia and home against Arizona, with this in mind I still believe that Yellowknife will make the playoffs without to many issues and could (and should lock out the number 2 spot).
New Predicted Final Position: 2nd
ASFC
Arizona Outlaws
Arizona were a bit of a sleeper team at the start of the season (or were to me anyway, I blame it on being a noob) but thanks to an experienced quarterback and a large crop of talented young players from the previous year's draft they are becoming a talented young team with the performances to back this up. They have exchanged wins with the ASFC favourites Orange County, had a good win over Philadelphia and I believe are looking good for the remainder of the season.
Helpfully Arizona have a fairly easy set of matches to end the season with, their remaining NSFC matches being the toughest away at Baltimore and Yellowknife. I expect Arizona to keep on rocking into the playoffs with relative ease and expect them to be a team to watch in future seasons as well (you heard it here 1st!).
New Predicted Final Position: 2nd
Austin Copperheads
What can I say about my beloved Austin that is in any way positive about their season so far, only that it has gone as expected. The 2 new expansion teams have taken 2 very different approaches with Austin loading up on young players looking to the future rather than present glory (There are any number of phases I could throw in at this juncture: 'Rome wasn't built in a day' 'he who laughs last, laughs longest' 'good things come to those who wait' please feel free to pick one and insert it here). With Austin long term strategy along with their rookie quarterback has led to the inevitable 0-8 start despite Dick Wizardry racking up rushing yards like a madman.
Going forward I expect much the same from Austin, as I have already said all eyes will be on the match against Colorado to decide who will end up with the 1st pick of the draft. To end on a positive note if Austin are able to keep their high quantity of youngsters active then they could become a quality side quicker than others might expect, just not this season!
Same Predicted Final Position: 5th
New Orleans New Line
New Orleans are a team with an interesting mix of young and old players but unfortunately are currently looking at a tough fight to try and make the postseason proper (with the current rules I don't count 4th as making the postseason as it is an auto loss). New Orleans have done as expected so far this season beating teams worse than them, exchanging wins with San Jose but failing to take away any other wins which is what they would have to do to claim a postseason berth.
To make matters worse New Orleans have a really tough set of remaining fixtures coming up in the remainder of the season. They are only facing team that have a positive win total and I believe they will struggle to get many more wins under their belt if any. With this in mind I am afraid I don't believe they will win the battle for 3rd place and the postseason over San Jose.
Same Predicted Final Position: 4th
Orange County Otters
Orange County were a highly favoured team at the start of the season and you can easily see why. They made a great offensive downright terrifying with the off season acquisition of Vinny Valentine and have a decent looking defence to boot. Orange County have largely lived up to expectations so far this season and are currently sitting pretty at the top of the ASFC. They are still (in my eyes anyway) the favourites to be the outright top team going into the playoffs.
Orange County do not have an overly tough remainder of the season and so I would expect them to keep largely winning and wreaking up the points scored. The only teams I expect to potentially give them trouble are their last 2 opponents, Chicago and Baltimore, which may mean they will also play a factor in deciding how the NSFC shapes out as well.
Same Predicted Final Position: 1st
San Jose Sabre Cats
San Jose are another team that I have been a bit disappointed with so far this season. Coming back after their nightmare performance in last year's Ultimus I had expect an aging San Jose team to have at least 1 good season left in them but this has failed to materialise, unfortunately. San Jose have less offensive weapons than other teams now, which can be seen in their recent trade for young running back Bigby, which should help them out. With their week 5 win against Arizona aside they have failed to win against the top teams so far this season.
While San Jose are not likely to challenge Arizona and Orange County above them I still expect to see them scrape into the postseason again this year. Like New Orleans they have a tough remaining set of fixtures but end this season against Colorado which should be enough to see them finish ahead of their rivals in the Big Easy.
New Predicted Final Position: 3rd
Final Predictions:
With all that I have discussed in this article I thought it be best to update my trophy predictions as well. This way you can all agree, argue, praise or deride where I see the remainder of the season going depending on your own predilection and I look forward to whatever your comments might be.
Regular Season Champion: Orange County Otters
(same)NSFC Runner-up: Chicago Butchers
(updated)NSFC Champion: Yellowknife Wraiths
(same)ASFC Runner-up: Arizona Outlaws
(same)ASFC Champion: Orange County Otters
(same)Ultimus Trophy Champion: Orange County Otters
(updated)(Word count 2254)
*NSFL Mid Season Review - 124715 - 07-21-2019
This was a really interesting article! I'm gonna go full homer and say the Liberty will finish in first place. Here's the NSFCs point differentials:
Chicago: +19
Yellowknife: +44
Philadelphia: +88
Baltimore: +60
Colorado: -157
Since Philly is the best by a significant margin, I think they'll be able to take the lead as the season goes on.
*NSFL Mid Season Review - Mooty99 - 07-22-2019
That is an interesting one, I found Philadelphia the hardest team to predict how they were going to do. They are the sort of team that could power past everyone or fall off a cliff, but that is an interesting around point difference, so your saying they will win there remaining 5 games? As I said they hold the key to the division playing all 3 rivals again
*NSFL Mid Season Review - 124715 - 07-22-2019
(07-22-2019, 02:24 AM)Mooty99 Wrote:That is an interesting one, I found Philadelphia the hardest team to predict how they were going to do. They are the sort of team that could power past everyone or fall off a cliff, but that is an interesting around point difference, so your saying they will win there remaining 5 games? As I said they hold the key to the division playing all 3 rivals againThat's an interesting point and our upcoming schedule isn't exactly a cake walk. But I think we'll get at least 3 wins, so the question is this: will 8-5 be enough to win the division? 9-4? 10-3? I think we won't get the big picture until week 12.
*NSFL Mid Season Review - Mooty99 - 07-22-2019
(07-22-2019, 12:59 PM)124715 Wrote:That's an interesting point and our upcoming schedule isn't exactly a cake walk. But I think we'll get at least 3 wins, so the question is this: will 8-5 be enough to win the division? 9-4? 10-3? I think we won't get the big picture until week 12.
My last take/prediction on this subject is this. Whoever wins the Baltimore @ Philadelphia game tonight will make the post season. The other team will not. You heard it here first!
*NSFL Mid Season Review - Bigred1580 - 07-22-2019
Man, Baltimore not making the playoffs would be shocking!
*NSFL Mid Season Review - 124715 - 07-22-2019
(07-22-2019, 09:38 AM)Mooty99 Wrote:My last take/prediction on this subject is this. Whoever wins the Baltimore @ Philadelphia game tonight will make the post season. The other team will not. You heard it here first!
I can totally see this!
*NSFL Mid Season Review - Sweetwater - 07-22-2019
(07-21-2019, 07:11 PM)124715 Wrote:This was a really interesting article! I'm gonna go full homer and say the Liberty will finish in first place. Here's the NSFCs point differentials:
Chicago: +19
Yellowknife: +44
Philadelphia: +88
Baltimore: +60
Colorado: -157
Since Philly is the best by a significant margin, I think they'll be able to take the lead as the season goes on.
One factor to consider with these point diffs is how many times each of these teams have played COL and AUS. Those usually result in blowouts that inflate points.
A quick looks shows that:
Butchers have played 2/3 of those matchups, but didnt manage to hold blowouts.
YKW have played 1/3 with it being a blowout, and game 2 happening tonight.
PHI have played 2/3, both being blowouts.
BAL have played 2/3, one being a blowout.
COLs point diff is proof of the trend.
The other major factor between CHI and PHI is the blowout win PHI had over CHI, which essentially doubled the gap between them as ot shrunk CHIs doff by the same amount it grew PHIs.
I'd expect those diffs to move in YKWs favor as they play arguably the easiest remaining schedule in the NSFC, with the toughest matchup being @PHI, and 2 assumed wins with COL and AUS.
PHI has a moderately tough schedule coming up with the Hawks (who you've beat @BAL so shouldnt be too bad at home) @CHI (could be difficult) YKW (#2 seed who've been on a tear) and @SJS (honestly a tossup game) before your assumed win with AUS. All of which are winnable games, but the sim is a fickle bitch.
Chicago has arguably the toughest schedule of the 3, and I expect them to drop at least a couple over the stretch.
I see a 3 way tossup of CHI, YKW, PHI as almost unpredictable at this point.
*NSFL Mid Season Review - 124715 - 07-22-2019
(07-22-2019, 11:49 AM)Sweetwater Wrote:One factor to consider with these point diffs is how many times each of these teams have played COL and AUS. Those usually result in blowouts that inflate points.
A quick looks shows that:
Butchers have played 2/3 of those matchups, but didnt manage to hold blowouts.
YKW have played 1/3 with it being a blowout, and game 2 happening tonight.
PHI have played 2/3, both being blowouts.
BAL have played 2/3, one being a blowout.
COLs point diff is proof of the trend.
The other major factor between CHI and PHI is the blowout win PHI had over CHI, which essentially doubled the gap between them as ot shrunk CHIs doff by the same amount it grew PHIs.
I'd expect those diffs to move in YKWs favor as they play arguably the easiest remaining schedule in the NSFC, with the toughest matchup being @PHI, and 2 assumed wins with COL and AUS.
PHI has a moderately tough schedule coming up with the Hawks (who you've beat @BAL so shouldnt be too bad at home) @CHI (could be difficult) YKW (#2 seed who've been on a tear) and @SJS (honestly a tossup game) before your assumed win with AUS. All of which are winnable games, but the sim is a fickle bitch.
Chicago has arguably the toughest schedule of the 3, and I expect them to drop at least a couple over the stretch.
I see a 3 way tossup of CHI, YKW, PHI as almost unpredictable at this point.
I agree with everything you said. I don't think the NSFC has been this competitive in years. Honestly I could see any of the four teams winning it.