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*Prospect Bowl W5-6 Predictions - New and Improved! - Ocelot - 08-13-2019

Hi guys,
Thanks for checking out my predictions for the last 4 games we've just seen. Scores were a little off but we were perfect on the predictions for the game winners.

Adding a little twist to this prediction, I'm bringing in the Pythagorean Expectation (PE) formula to estimate whether teams are overachieving or underachieving. PE is an analytics formula that calculates how many games a team "should" have won based on the number of points they've scored and allowed. Then, comparing a teams actual W/L vs their PE allows us to determine whether a team is "lucky" or "unlucky."

PE for these teams is calculated like so:

Code:
PE = (points-for^2.37 / (points-for^2.37+points-against^2.37))*games played

Check this wikipedia page for more information on Pythagorean Expectation

We'll be using the PE for each team in the predictions, so let's display them all here:
  • Cobra's PE - 2.5 Pythagorean Wins (3 actual)
  • Mongoose's PE - 3.1 Pythagorean Wins (3 actual)
  • Wolfpack's PE - 1.1 Pythagorean Wins (1 actual)
  • Tropic's PE - 0.9 Pythagorean Wins (1 actual)
As you can see, it's pretty accurate. Most teams are performing to expectation, so we'll use whether a team has performed to expectation so far to consider where they'll go from here.
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WEEK 5 - GAME ONE - Cobras @ Mongoose
The two front runners of the Prospect Bowl meet again in a week 2 rematch that saw the Cobras take it home 20-13. As I'm sure we're well aware, I value Victor Bravo and Jay Cue as the two best QBs in this Prospect class so I'm sure we'll see another exciting high-scoring shootout between these two in this match. To go alongside their strong offense, both teams have an elite defense, with Cobras lineback Matt Ammon coming off the back of TWO 15 TACKLE GAMES. We'll see if the Mongoose will take a more pass-heavy approach in order to avoid a stuffed run game. Both teams went for over 300 yards of offense when they last met, and I'm sure this game will be no different. Taking into account PE, the Mongoose are exactly where we'd expect them to be, with the Cobras very very very slightly overperforming. I expect this to be one close game, but I wouldn't be shocked with a Mongoose win in this matchup. We'll see if Victor Bravo is ready to step up to the plate and throw that ball more in order to avoid Ammons in Linebacker.

PREDICTION: Cobras 20 - Mongoose 23

WEEK 5 - GAME TWO - Tropics @ Wolfpack
The two lower performing teams meet up for yet another week 2 rematch, one that ended in a low-scoring affair last time. Both of these teams are at 1 win each, and according to their PE, rightly so. The Tropics didn't manage to put a single point on the board in their last time out against a very strong Mongoose team. Stats wise, the Tropics didn't look as awful as the scoreline shows, statisically putting up a decent fight that wasn't reflected in the final result. The Wolfpack went against the Cobras last time out and managed to put 3 FG on the board with no TDs, finishing 9-12. The Wolfback have never scored above 13 in this Prospect Bowl and their PE has them exactly where we'd expect them to be. It's a hard one to predict but I don't see this one going to the Wolfpack with their lackluster offence.

PREDICTIONS: Tropics 16 - Wolfpack 12

WEEK 6 - GAME ONE - Tropics @ Mongoose
We've discussed in detail the differences between teams at this point, this matchup is no different. Tropics have struggled offensively in the past few games, and while their defense is strong, I don't really see the game going anywhere other than a Mongoose walk-over as it did in Week 4. I'd be highly surprised if it went any other way.

PREDICTION: Tropics 3 - Mongoose 27

WEEK 6 - GAME TWO - Cobras @ Wolfpack
The Cobras are in a weird spot of seemingly not being in as good a spot as the Mongoose team, yet still easily stronger than the 2nd seeds. Their PE has them with lower wins than actual, so it's safe to say they're overperforming slightly. In saying that, I think we'd be shocked to see the Wolfpack win here. Last matchup between these teams in Week 4 was closer (although maybe not unexpectedly so according to the Expectation of the Cobras) than I was thinking due to an anomalously sub-par performance from Cobra QB Jay Cue, only clocking in a 29.2 QBR to Phillip Helmet average performance at 55.1 QBR. I think we're in for a fairly one-sided game to the Cobras.

PREDICTION: Cobras 17 - Wolfpack 9
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We move onto the Playoffs next time out after these two weeks, so I thought I'd put up my playoff predictions. Not entirely sure how the conferences are laid out though.

East Side Cobras - Pomona Mongoose - #1 Seeds
Flint Sun Tropics - Midwest Wolfpacks - #2 Seeds

Well, that was expected, wasn't it?
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Thanks for reading this guys, I know it's getting a bit monotonous at the minute, I'm kind of reiterating the same points so I'll consider not predicting the playoffs. There's not really much more to say with teams playing the same matchups so often so I hope the Pythagorean Expectation was interesting enough to make this worth a read.

Thanks!

*Prospect Bowl W5-6 Predictions - New and Improved! - goodvsevil1275 - 08-13-2019

Solid predictions. I can see the Mongoose winning as they're such a solid team, but the addition of our kicker for the Cobras will allow Gabriel Johnson to move to punter where it seems like he is a more natural fit. Maybe the punting game was holding us back, as we rarely have any punts over 40 yards

*Prospect Bowl W5-6 Predictions - New and Improved! - calvins48 - 08-13-2019

Great write up!

*Prospect Bowl W5-6 Predictions - New and Improved! - Wizedex - 08-13-2019

it'd be cooler if they ran than passed imo

*Prospect Bowl W5-6 Predictions - New and Improved! - BeneZero - 08-13-2019

tune in for the J-Lo Show tonight boys...

Jay Cue im coming ya!