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*THE MYSTERY OF AUSTIN'S MISSING YARDS PER CARRY - run_CMC - 11-07-2019

[div align=\\\"center\\\"][Image: PSTQtb3.png][/div]

Welcome back to another issue of “The Specialist!” Now, for those of you who have a particular fondness for media and have been around a while, you’ll know that The Specialist was originally my label under which I published special teams related media. I was a kicker and punter for 12 seasons after all, I figured we deserved some articles too! Ah yes…

[div align=\\\"center\\\"]”Professional football’s only Special Teams focused publication.”[/div]

Welp, those days are gone. However, @infinitempg made me the bombass logo you see at the beginning of this article and I refuse to put it out of use. SO. The Specialist will now be about special teams, or something esspecially out of the ordinary (or just whatever the fuck I want to write about to be honest.)

So without further ado:

[div align=\\\"center\\\"][Image: PSTQtb3.png]
Austin and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad S18 Yards per Carry[/div]

I was inspired to write this article by the remarkably uninspiring performance of the Austin Copperheads runningbacks in their recent Season 18, Week 12 matchup against the Yellowknife Wraiths. The Copperheads had home-field advantage, but they seemingly squandered it in the run game. RB Ashley Owens had 8 rushes for 14 yards (1.8 yards per carry) and 0 touchdowns. RB Mako Mendonca managed slightly better with 6 rushes for 15 yards (2.5 yards per carry), and similarly, 0 touchdowns. Now, the Yellowknife defense is one deserving of great respect, and their defensive line is particularly dominant: superstars Nero Alexander and Ryan Leaf Jr. make it something of a wall. They were an immovable object, and the Copperheads runningbacks were most certainly not an unstoppable force.

Isolate this one game and you can leave it unsurprised, but I’ve now seen a season of struggling when it comes to Ashley Owens’ yards per carry (for reference, Ashley Owens is my player). In addition, I don’t think Mendonca has been having the best season for YPC either, so I decided to look at the Austin Copperheads run game as a whole and compare it to the rest of the league. 5th in rushing attempts, 6th in yardage, 5th in touchdowns… and dead last in yards per carry. And so the investigation continued. 3.7 yards per carry as a team seemed pretty abysmal, so I decided to compare it to past seasons. Here’s the progression of every team in the NSFL’s yards per carry for each season since season 9.
[Image: rxCDXUK.png]
Please give me a little stats analysis bonus $$$ for manually compiling this data <3

Hmm. That’s a bit cluttered. Here are two separate graphs (with the same data) but grouped as the ASFC, and the NSFC the Austin Copperheads.

[Image: OWAohUh.png]

[Image: LenLI6C.png]

Why season 9 you ask? Well, the astute among you will see it’s because I had to go back to season 9 to find the last time a team had maintained such poor rushing efficiency — it was the San Jose Sabercats, also at 3.7 yards per carry. However, there were some extremely small differences between the two teams that are totally inconsequential and don’t differentiate them at all. Buuuuut I guess I’ll lay out the data and let you all draw conclusions yourself.

Once more, this is the Season 18 Austin Copperheads against the Season 9 San Jose Sabercats.

Overall Record
AUS Austin: 6-6, .500 (one game to go as I write this)
SJS San Jose: 2-12, .143

Passing Game
AUS Austin: 29 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 95.8 QBR (1st of 10)
SJS San Jose: 13 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 68.5 QBR (6th of 8)

Rushing Attempts
AUS Austin: 336 attempts (5th of 10)
SJS San Jose: 460 attempts (2nd of 8)

Runningbacks
AUS Austin:
Mako Mendonca — 609 TPE (90 speed, 88 agility, 70 strength, 90 hands) — 149 rushes, 600 yards, 4 touchdowns
Ashley Owens — 507 TPE (90 speed, 76 agility, 70 strength, 90 hands) — 167 rushes, 595 yards, 6 touchdowns
SJS San Jose:
D. Diaz — n/a TPE (80 speed, 75 agility, 73 strength, 47 hands) — 338 rushes, 1261 yards, 2 touchdowns
D. Riddick — n/a TPE (80 speed, 74 agility, 50 strength, 65 hands) — 107 rushes, 400 yards, 2 touchdowns

Offensive Line
AUS Austin:
Left Tackle — 94 overall (100 strength, 85 pass blocking, 90 run blocking)
Left Guard — 95 overall (100 strength, 85 pass blocking, 90 run blocking)
Center — 95 overall (100 strength, 85 pass blocking, 90 run blocking)
Right Guard — 95 overall (100 strength, 85 pass blocking, 90 run blocking)
Right Tackle — 82 overall (99 strength, 80 pass blocking, 80 run blocking)
SJS San Jose:
Left Tackle — 79 overall (95 strength, 71 pass blocking, 70 run blocking)
Left Guard — 79 overall (95 strength, 71 pass blocking, 70 run blocking)
Center — 79 overall (95 strength, 71 pass blocking, 70 run blocking)
Right Guard — 79 overall (95 strength, 71 pass blocking, 70 run blocking)
Right Tackle — 79 overall (95 strength, 71 pass blocking, 70 run blocking)

To summarize this data and more from the index not listed here, Austin had… a better record, better runningbacks, a better offensive line, better overall offense, less rushing attempts (which should improve efficiency), and ran a backfield by committee, which is known to increase total yards per carry.

So I’m kinda out of ideas.

The two things I thought to look into were the effects of quarterback running and the differences in gameplan. However, Austin’s quarterback Easton Cole - while having a yards per carry of just 3 yards - could not possibly have been the main cause of such a low team YPC since he only ran 20 times on the season (well, like the rest of this article, though week 12 anyways). As for gameplan, frankly that is way too much to look into when I don’t even have the sim on my computer anymore. So yeah.

Well, this simply won’t do. First of all, I don’t have nearly a long enough article to afford equipment as a result of it, and second of all, I’m still curious about the Austin run game. I wonder, even with such a terrible and depressing yards per carry, can Austin’s two runningbacks still be said to have had a good season? Let’s dive deeper.

(Note, at this point week 13 sims have finished so now stats will refer to the entirety of Season 18, instead of S18 only through week 12 like the previous section of this article)

[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Episode VI: Return of the Receiving Backs[/div]

The Austin Copperheads are in quite a unique situation; they have not one receiving back on their roster (common), but two (rarer). Furthermore, both are at a reasonably high TPE level, with maxed speed and maxed hands achieved before the end of the previous season. These runningbacks were both first round picks, with Mako Mendonca going 8th overall to the Copperheads with a pick acquired from the Orange County Otters in the season 16 NSFL draft, and with Ashley Owens going first overall to Austin in the season 17 NSFL draft. When a team takes players from the same position in the first round of back to back drafts, you figure something must’ve gone wrong; the first player drafted was a quick bust perhaps. However, for the Copperheads, that couldn’t be further from the truth.

Since Ashley Owens entered the big leagues last season, he and Mendonca have emerged as a dangerous tag team who have caused a number of problems for opposing defenses, who have to attempt to hold both of them down across multiple positions in multiple formations. Their joint dominance in their first season together (S17) was reminiscent of “Double Trouble” - DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart together on the Panthers (who in 2009 became only the sixth pair in NFL history to both pass 1000 rushing yards on the same team in the same season). To put things in perspective in advance of discussing this season (S18), let’s rewind:

The Season 17 Copperheads Runningbacks:

Mako Mendonca:
187 rushes, 790 rushing yards, 4.2 ypc, 5 touchdowns, longest run of 14 yards
66 receptions, 668 receiving yards, 10.1 ypr, 4 touchdowns, longest catch of 41 yards
Total: 253 touches, 1,458 yards, 9 touchdowns

Ashley Owens:
185 rushes, 749 rushing yards, 4.0 ypc, 4 touchdowns, longest run of 15 yards
80 receptions, 671 receiving yards, 8.4 ypr, 3 touchdowns, longest catch of 34 yards
Total: 265 touches, 1,420 yards, 7 touchdowns

Together, they combined for 1,539 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns, and 1,339 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. This makes a total of 2,879 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns. So let’s look at the top yard-gaining duos from every season 17 team - whether that be 2 runningbacks, 2 wide receivers, or 1 runningback and 1 receiver - and see how they compare. I’ll also include TD numbers just for the sake of it, although those won’t be part of the yardage ranking obviously. In order of least to most…

#10. Philadelphia Liberty
RB Marquise Brown - 897 rushing yards, 212 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns
WR Jordan von Matt - 870 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns
PHI 1,979 yards from scrimmage

#9. Colorado Yeti
RB Terry Taffy - 1,154 rushing yards, 162 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns
WR James Bishop - 871 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns
COL 2,187 yards from scrimmage

#8. San Jose Sabercats
WR Xavier Flash - 1,187 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns
TE Cameron Olsen - 1,024 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
SJS 2,211 yards from scrimmage

#7. Orange County Otters
RB Apollo Reed - 1,246 rushing yards, 234 receiving yards, 15 total touchdowns
TE Johnny Blaze - 924 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns
OCO 2,404 yards from scrimmage

#6. Chicago Butchers
RB Sam Torenson - 1,478 rushing yards, 95 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns
WR Kazimir Oles - 919 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns
CHI 2,492 yards from scrimmage

#5. Yellowknife Wraiths
“RB” Jarrod Canton - 276 rushing yards, 1,183 receiving yards, 13 (receiving) touchdowns
RB Morgan Marshall - 834 rushing yards, 322 receiving yards, 11 total touchdowns
YKW 2,615 yards from scrimmage

#4. Baltimore Hawks
RB Dorfus Jimbo - 1,181 rushing yards, 236 receiving yards, 3 total touchdowns
WR Errol Maddox - 1,232 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns
BAL 2,649 yards from scrimmage

#3. New Orleans Second Line
RB Forrest Gump - 1,082 rushing yards, 374 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns
RB Tyler Swift - 636 rushing yards, 680 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns
NOLA 2,772 yards from scrimmage

#2. Austin Copperheads
RB Mako Mendonca - 790 rushing yards, 668 receiving yards, 9 total touchdowns
RB Ashley Owens - 749 rushing yards, 671 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns
AUS 2,879 yards from scrimmage

#1. Arizona Outlaws
RB Slim Shady - 1,047 rushing yards, 434 receiving yards, 11 total touchdowns
WR Vinny Valentine - 1,400 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns
ARI 2,881 yards from scrimmage

Here it is visualized as a graph.

[Image: qQsdrtY.png]

Based on our data, it’s obvious that Mendonca and Owens were the clear-cut best duo in the NSFL in - oh. Well then. Very, very rude of you Outlaws. The Arizona Outlaws’ very own WR Vinny Valentine and RB Slim Shady managed to combine for 2 more yards from scrimmage than Mako Mendonca and Ashley Owens did. That means the Outlaw duo had 0.07% more yards gained in season than the Austin pair. To put that in a physical perspective, if the Austin duo’s yardage was the Statue of Liberty, the Arizona tag team had the Statue of Liberty plus 2.5 inches. Well played, Arizona, well played.

But I mean, still. In S17, Mendonca was a sophomore runningback while Owens was a rookie. Vinny Valentine was an established top receiver who was a free agent superstar, and Slim Shady has been the Outlaws’ impressive workhorse runningback basically since the legendary Reg Mackworthy. No other pair came within 100 yards of Mako and Owens, and only one was within 200. The graph speaks for itself. (However, I don’t intend to be misleading - realize that there’s 1,500 yards gained to the left of the graph not shown because, well, every duo gained at least a bit over 1,500 yards and I didn’t want to show a solid block of color.)

OKAY.

So all of that gives you some sense of how good a duo Ashley and Mako were as a rookie and sophomore respectively. … I did a whole lot of work just to show that one thing. Oh well.

AND IF YOU WERE WONDERING… the season 17 Copperheads team yards per carry... WAS 4.2!

What happened??? Let’s keep investigating!!! Woo

First I’ll grab the overall raw stats from season 18 for my 2 fav runningbacks (jk I’m not talking about Mackworthy in this article). But yes, Mako Mendonca and Ashley Owens.

The Season 18 Copperheads Runningbacks:

Mako Mendonca:
159 rushes, 645 rushing yards, 4.1 ypc, 4 touchdowns, longest run of 22 yards
56 receptions, 497 receiving yards, 8.9 ypr, 7 touchdowns, longest catch of 35 yards
Total: 215 touches, 1,143 yards, 11 touchdowns

Ashley Owens:
177 rushes, 623 rushing yards, 3.5 ypc, 7 touchdowns, longest run of 14 yards
67 receptions, 692 receiving yards, 10.3 ypr, 2 touchdowns, longest catch of 39 yards
Total: 143 touches, 1,315 yards, 9 touchdowns

Combined:
1,268 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns
1,189 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns
2,457 total yards from scrimmage (20 total touchdowns)

Wow okay so that’s not great. From season 17 to 18, they together...
Lost 271 rushing yards
Lost 150 receiving yards
Gained 4 touchdowns!

On the bright side, they increased their touchdown numbers! But really, this trend does actually make sense. The team’s quarterback, and other offensive skill players all improved. This means the ball could be spread around more effectively, and it didn’t have to be fed to the old reliable runningbacks quite so often (because runningbacks function better at lower TPE than wide receivers, typically). However, alongside this, the runningback pair had less attempts than in the previous season. And less attempts is supposed to mean greater efficiency as you’re not just running the guys into the ground. And so the case remains unsolved for now…

WHOMST STOLE THE COPPERHEADS YARDS PER CARRY?

I’m not giving up yet. No, not even close.

[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Austin Copperheads and the Temple of Boom[/div]

WE. MUST. GO. DEEPER. Time to take this thing week by week.

Week 1: at New Orleans NOLA
Ashley Owens: 14 rushes, 42 yards, 3.0 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 9 rushes, 41 yards, 4.6 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 3.6

Week 2: at Arizona ARI
Ashley Owens: 16 rushes, 42 yards, 2.6 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 12 rushes, 32 yards, 2.7 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 2.6

Week 3: vs Orange County OCO
Ashley Owens: 17 rushes, 55 yards, 3.2 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 19 rushes, 104 yards, 5.5 ypc, 1 TD
Combined yards per carry: 4.4

Week 4: at San Jose SJS
Ashley Owens: 16 rushes, 86 yards, 5.4 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 14 rushes, 70 yards, 5.0 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 5.2

Week 5: vs Baltimore BAL
Ashley Owens: 21 rushes, 94 yards, 4.5 ypc, 1 TD
Mako Mendonca: 16 rushes, 63 yards, 3.9 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 4.2

Week 6: at Orange County OCO
Ashley Owens: 9 rushes, 39 yards, 4.3 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 11 rushes, 33 yards, 3.0 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 3.6

Week 7: vs San Jose SJS
Ashley Owens: 9 rushes, 35 yards, 3.9 ypc, 3 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 15 rushes, 62 yards, 4.1 ypc, 1 TD
Combined yards per carry: 4.0

Week 8: vs New Orleans NOLA
Ashley Owens: 13 rushes, 48 yards, 3.7 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 16 rushes, 64 yards, 4.0 ypc, 1 TD
Combined yards per carry: 3.9

Week 9: at Chicago CHI
Ashley Owens: 7 rushes, 26 yards, 3.7 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 10 rushes, 40 yards, 4.0 ypc, 1 TD
Combined yards per carry: 3.9

Week 10: vs Arizona ARI
Ashley Owens: 16 rushes, 52 yards, 3.2 ypc, 2 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 15 rushes, 64 yards, 4.3 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 3.7

Week 11: at Colorado COL
Ashley Owens: 21 rushes, 62 yards, 3.0 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 6 rushes, 12 yards, 2.0 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 2.7

Week 12: vs Yellowknife YKW
Ashley Owens: 8 rushes, 14 yards, 1.8 ypc, 0 TDs
Mako Mendonca: 6 rushes, 15 yards, 2.5 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 2.1

Week 13: vs Philadelphia PHI
Ashley Owens: 10 rushes, 28 yards, 2.8 ypc, 1 TD
Mako Mendonca: 10 rushes, 45 yards, 4.5 ypc, 0 TDs
Combined yards per carry: 3.7

I could say a lot about these numbers, but instead I’ll say a little and let a graph handle the rest, and then proceed to talk about the graph probably. Owens started the season off quite weak in his efficiency, before having a huge surge in a week 4 home game against San Jose. However, at that point, Ashley’s yards per carry began to fall off yet again and never had another resurgence or recovery. As for The Shark (Mako, get it? I just thought of that wow I’m so smart anyways), his efficiency changed sporadically from week to week. In the span of the last four weeks of the season, he dropped from 4.3 ypc to 2.0 ypc, but also from 2.5 to 4.5. Oh, and from week 2 to week 3, Mendonca had a very nice comeback game, going from 2.7 ypc to 5.5 ypc. Okay, graph time:

[Image: Ryvjobx.png]

Hmmm… so it appears that, as a unit, the Austin runningbacks’ rushing efficiency started poor, then got better for a little bit, then took a slow fall back to terribleness, then rose at the end.

OH MY GOD. I’VE DONE IT. I’VE FOUND WHAT CORRELATES WITH THE CHANGES.

Let me refer back to the title of this section… “Austin Copperheads and the Temple of Boom”

Boom? Isn’t the movie title temple of DOOM? Why yes, yes it is. But you know who says boom/boomer a lot? Well, tons of people now to be honest. But there is one fella I’ve recently had the pleasure of getting to know better in the Austin lockerroom who says it a decent bit, and that man is Buttersquanch. We knew we’d be reunited one day after that DSFL S16 waiver pickup team :’)

Anyways.

You, you my friend. You’re at the center of all of this.

The Austin Copperheads rushing efficiency shifts when there is Buttersquanch-related news!

[Image: bhsSIxC.jpg]

We’ve been boomed, @Mooty99. We’ve been boomed.

[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Conclusion with no catchy section title[/div]

I rest my case. When Butter news happens, the Austin Copperheads runningbacks immediately change their rushing efficiency. Ignore the countless other variables I’ve failed to look at. My results are undeniable! Furthermore, do to this finding, I know that the increase in yards per carry in the final week 13 game will continue to carry on into the playoffs. At this rate, we’ll be upwards of 8.0 yards per carry in the Ultimus! Excellent work men. Let’s call it a night.

Congrats for scrolling to the end of this monstrous article (cause I sure as heck know you didn’t read it all).

Thank you and good night. Stay hydrated and take care of yourselves.

run_CMC out

*THE MYSTERY OF AUSTIN'S MISSING YARDS PER CARRY - Mooty99 - 11-07-2019

Loved this monster article, is that because it was largely about me..... yes probably, but this is some great work, Austin running back pair are set to be feared for years to come!

*THE MYSTERY OF AUSTIN'S MISSING YARDS PER CARRY - Ryan0413 - 11-07-2019

No graphs about kicking or punting, am disappointed

*THE MYSTERY OF AUSTIN'S MISSING YARDS PER CARRY - infinitempg - 11-07-2019

Me: *expecting run to go into Austin’s strat selection and see if west coast has a better YPC than balanced*

@run_CMC: “okay boomer”

Seriously though great article and tbh I didn’t expect that twist

*THE MYSTERY OF AUSTIN'S MISSING YARDS PER CARRY - Buttersqauch101 - 11-07-2019

So the truth is out. Sorry it had to go like this run
[Image: GFa29Mr.png]

*THE MYSTERY OF AUSTIN'S MISSING YARDS PER CARRY - run_CMC - 11-08-2019

(11-07-2019, 05:34 AM)Mooty99 Wrote:Loved this monster article, is that because it was largely about me..... yes probably, but this is some great work, Austin running back pair are set to be feared for years to come!

Articles about your player are always the best articles! Here's to double trouble

(11-07-2019, 05:47 AM)Ryan0413 Wrote:No graphs about kicking or punting, am disappointed

Um, excuse you. No graphs about kicking or punting, YET*

(11-07-2019, 09:05 AM)infinitempg Wrote:Me: *expecting run to go into Austin’s strat selection and see if west coast has a better YPC than balanced*

@run_CMC: “okay boomer”

Seriously though great article and tbh I didn’t expect that twist

that's why it's such a great twist, I didn't expect it either lol
Hopefully the pretty colored graphs balanced out the very ranty side of this semi-analytical article lmao

(11-07-2019, 10:51 AM)Buttersqauch101 Wrote:So the truth is out. Sorry it had to go like this run
[Image: GFa29Mr.png]

okay boomer

*THE MYSTERY OF AUSTIN'S MISSING YARDS PER CARRY - Buttersqauch101 - 11-08-2019

(11-08-2019, 06:42 AM)run_CMC Wrote:okay boomer

Take that shit back, don’t make me ruin our Rushing yards again