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*Probability of S20 End-of-Season Standings - W13 - goodfortunecoffee - 02-12-2020

Here's an updated look at what I posted 2 days ago.

I simmed the final week 100 times to get these results.

NSFC
1. YKW(98%)COL(2%)
2.COL(98%)YKW(2%)
3.BAL(88%)PHI(12%)

ASFC
1.AUS(100%)
2.OCO(71)NOLA(29%)
3.NOLA(51%)OCO(29%)ARI(17%)SJS(3%)[3-way tie w/ NO & AZ]

2oa: SJS(67%)PHI(17%)BAL(12%)ARI(4%)
3oa: PHI(43%)ARI(27%)SJS(23)NOLA(7%)
4oa: ARI(52%)PHI(28%)NOLA(13%)SJS(7%)

HFA: YKW(79)AUS(20)COL(1)

and again organized by team

YKW 79% home-field, 98% (1), 2% (2)
COL 1% home-field, 2% (1), 98% (2)
BAL 88% (3), 12% 2oa
PHI 12% (3), 28% 4oa, 43% 3oa, 17% 2oa
CHI 100% 1oa

AUS 20% home-field, 100% (1)
OCO 71% (2), 29% (3)
NOLA 29% (2), 51% (3), 13% 4oa, 7% 3oa
ARI 17% (3), 52% 4oa, 27% 3oa, 4% 2oa
SJS 3% (3), 7% 4oa, 23% 3oa, 67% 2oa

*Probability of S20 End-of-Season Standings - W13 - FleshBagSoup - 02-12-2020

sjs can still make it ? ????

*Probability of S20 End-of-Season Standings - W13 - goodfortunecoffee - 02-12-2020

(02-11-2020, 10:19 PM)FleshBagSoup Wrote:sjs can still make it ?  ????

yeah they are in if they win, and NOLA+AZ lose. They have the 3-way tiebreaker, somehow.

*Probability of S20 End-of-Season Standings - W13 - speculadora - 02-12-2020

(02-12-2020, 02:22 AM)goodfortunecoffee Wrote:yeah they are in if they win, and NOLA+AZ lose. They have the 3-way tiebreaker, somehow.

We mathed it out in GM chat and it seems like in the event of a 3-way tie, combined H2H is used. so in that case SJS - 2-0 against NOLA and 1-1 against AZ- has the best record.

*Probability of S20 End-of-Season Standings - W13 - Jay_Doctor - 02-12-2020

This is awesome to see it all broken down!