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+---- Thread: *a useless look at season predictions (/showthread.php?tid=19777)
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*a useless look at season predictions - speculadora - 03-04-2020
Hello, I noticed some particularly... "interesting" season predictions out there and thought maybe I could help you put some numbers behind your decisions. Welcome to my hacky little article that will predict probably nothing.
So, all I did was copy all the players from the TPE Tracker to get this data. You can toggle columns and it copy pastes into Excel quite nicely. For this first bit though I'll just be looking at the Team Stats tab.
Season Predictions: Total TPE Method
NSFC
1.
(12,253)2.
(11,563)3.
(10,983)---
4.
(10,733)5.
(8,930)ASFC
1.
(13,946)2.
(11,865)3.
(11,025)---
4.
(9,185)5.
(7,955)Overall
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Season Predictions: Average TPE Method
NSFC
1.
(644)2.
(642)3.
(596)---
4.
(549)5.
(496)ASFC
1.
(697)2.
(593)3.
(551)---
4.
(459)5.
(418)Overall
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Now for the part where I do a bunch of arbitrary stuff. As we know, most of us at least, not all positions are created equal in DDSPF. Having very good players at some will influence your outcomes far more than others. Some of these weren't exactly easy to put numbers on so don't hammer away at your keyboards debating with me. Obviously MLB and SLB aren't equal, but I'm not trying to go into a whole huge thing here, so I considered them both for one position and that brought the weight I applied to LB's down.
Here's a breakdown of the weights I applied to each position. Again these are generalized and somewhat opinion based. Please don't fight me. Scale goes from 1 (each additional TPE less impactful) to 5 (each additional TPE more impactful)
QB: 5
RB: 2
WR: 4
TE: 3
OL: 1
DT: 3
DE: 2
LB: 2
CB: 5
S: 3
K/P: 1
So anyway. Every team's average TPE for that position was multiplied by the weight, then divided by the sum of the weights.
Season Predictions: Weighted TPE Method
NSFC
1.
(751.9)2.
(704.2)3.
(669.2)---
4.
(546.7)5.
(533.6)ASFC
1.
(696.1)2.
(692.9)3.
(665.2)---
4.
(533.6)5.
(490.5)Overall
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
So there you have it. I found a way to predict OCO will win the conference.
But to discuss a more relevant point: basically what you see is that although the Wraiths trail the Yeti in other metrics, Yellowknife have their TPE very very well distributed across the different positions. Like weirdly well. Hopefully this last bit has confused you enough to ignore me.
*a useless look at season predictions - ScorpXCracker - 03-04-2020
nola op
*a useless look at season predictions - scorycory - 03-04-2020
So what I'm reading is that Nola is the new YKW. Most talent and loses in the playoffs every season
*a useless look at season predictions - AdamS - 03-04-2020
Overall great list. I would argue the weights may be off personally.
On offense I would lower WR to a 3 as you're covering the whole group and not the WR1. I would also raise OL to a 2 because there's a notable difference in effectiveness between the levels.
Defensively I'd argue that DE should also be a 3 instead of 2, due to how frequently the entire DLine is moved aorund for each other on most teams. CBs could arguably be 4's instead of 5s though given the ceiling on how effective they can be against offenses.
Also, I'd give returners some due as well. Probably a 1 but still. Return quality does have an effect on things.
*a useless look at season predictions - jeffie43 - 03-04-2020
(03-04-2020, 09:59 PM)speculadora Wrote:So there you have it. I found a way to predict OCO will win the conference.
Solid prediction tbh
*a useless look at season predictions - speculadora - 03-04-2020
(03-04-2020, 11:19 PM)AdamS Wrote:Overall great list. I would argue the weights may be off personally.
On offense I would lower WR to a 3 as you're covering the whole group and not the WR1. I would also raise OL to a 2 because there's a notable difference in effectiveness between the levels.
Defensively I'd argue that DE should also be a 3 instead of 2, due to how frequently the entire DLine is moved aorund for each other on most teams. CBs could arguably be 4's instead of 5s though given the ceiling on how effective they can be against offenses.
Also, I'd give returners some due as well. Probably a 1 but still. Return quality does have an effect on things.
well I meant it more in a general sense of higher rating meaning more TPE equals more valuable ways to apply your TPE. but also it's way more than just the WR1 that is very important. the more good receivers you have the better your pass game/team. See: Otters S1-S16 or so.
for OL, I've done enough testing to be comfortable with saying the difference in additional TPE isn't a huge advantage for a single lineman. I actually originally had it where even teams that had no OL had the weight counted toward their denominator, but that was basically the same as saying a team has no OL of any kind at all while two teams had 500-600 average tpe marks there, so this felt like the best move.
also thought about either making both DL spots a 2.5 or a 3. realistically they should be the same for the same logic I applied to WR. in both cases, there's a certain threshold at which performance gain for each additional TPE just plateaus.
same deal for CB. not so much about effectiveness (though I disagree with you on that but putting that on hold for a sec) as it is about how many important attributes there are for CBs. ergo more TPE = better CBs and that is more linear than logarithmic in terms of returns on TPE. as for the effectiveness bit, I really wouldn't view it that way. yes, you'll even see Dermot's player go out there and get flamed for all 120 of an opposing receiver's yards at some point, but that's not really the fault of the CB so much as the way the sim handles receiving yardage as I understand it. Dermot could literally give up 120 yards every single game - without fail - and he'd still represent a massively important part of Austin's ability to win games. he'd still be a massive net positive. as gross as it is to say this about Dermot.
anyway, very hacky and based on a somewhat limited understanding of the sim, as I said. but glad you enjoyed it. hopefully it'll serve its real purpose of getting people a couple extra tpe maybe.
*a useless look at season predictions - run_CMC - 03-04-2020
(03-05-2020, 12:01 AM)speculadora Wrote:See: Otters S1-S16 or so.
........
Dermot could literally give up 120 yards every single game - without fail - and he'd still represent a massively important part of Austin's ability to win games. he'd still be a massive net positive. as gross as it is to say this about Dermot.
Feeling awfully feisty today are ya?
*a useless look at season predictions - speculadora - 03-04-2020
(03-05-2020, 01:07 AM)run_CMC Wrote:Feeling awfully feisty today are ya?
wait no, I thought my response was friendly? neither of these things are fiesty
just dissing dermo
*a useless look at season predictions - run_CMC - 03-04-2020
(03-05-2020, 12:09 AM)speculadora Wrote:wait no, I thought my response was friendly? neither of these things are fiestyWAIT NO it was I was just being feisty lmao
just dissing dermo
u know I love u spec
*a useless look at season predictions - speculadora - 03-04-2020
(03-05-2020, 01:20 AM)run_CMC Wrote:WAIT NO it was I was just being feisty lmao
u know I love u spec
s m h. don't you put that negativity on me or my articles