*S21 DSFL Power Rankings - Preseason - Printable Version +- [DEV] ISFL Forums (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums) +-- Forum: Community (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=5) +--- Forum: Media (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=37) +---- Forum: Graded Statistical Analysis (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=153) +---- Thread: *S21 DSFL Power Rankings - Preseason (/showthread.php?tid=19923)

*S21 DSFL Power Rankings - Preseason - Colabear - 03-07-2020 :dsfl: Welcome to the first S21 DSFL Power Rankings. I've compiled rankings from the DSFL GMs and the wider community to create a weighted system which should give a relatively balanced results and is protected from a single team brigading the vote to put themselves to the top. It assumes people aren't lying about who they are or who they play for. If you just want the overall final rankings here they are #1: Minnesota Grey Ducks (1.44) #2: Myrtle Beach Buccaneers (2.13) #3: Tijuana Luchadores (3.44) #4: Kansas City Coyotes (4.00) #5: Norfolk Seawolves (4.56) #6: Dallas Birddogs (6.13) #7: London Royals (6.50) #8: Portland Pythons (6.81) Digging into the rankings, very quickly three tiers of teams became clear. At the top, unsurprisingly, last years Ultimini contenders, Minnesota and Myrtle Beach. In the next tier Tijuana, Kansas City and Norfolk were ranked in the 3-5 range. Finally the two expansion teams without any send downs and the 2-12 Portland Pythons. Is this just a popularity contest? Let's check this by comparing the community rankings to something more objective. I've entered the last 3 DSFL seasons (including the San Antonio Marshalls results before moving to Minnesota) into Rankade who use their Ree algorithm to score and rank each team (you can find out more about how Ree compares to other systems such as Elo here https://rankade.com/ree#ranking-system-comparison ). #1: 2112 - Minnesota Grey Ducks #2: 2098 - Myrtle Beach Buccaneers #3: 2038 - Tijuana Luchadores #4: 1939 - Kansas City Coyotes #5: 1939 - Portland Pythons #6: 1874 - Norfolk Seawolves #7: N/A - London Royals #7: N/A - Dallas Birddogs Here, the top of the tree looks about the same but the big difference comes when you see the Pythons rated much higher and the Seawolves much lower than the community. Why might that be? Well for a start this is a purely historical view, it doesn't know anything about the draft. Secondly it gives more weight to historical results and while Norfolk improved a lot last season they had been very poor during S18 and S19. In contrast the Pythons were one of the strongest teams before last season. How strong the rollover effect is in the DSFL is with the high level of turnover of players can be debated but it does go some way to explaining these differences. Ratings after S18 Ratings after S19 Current Ratings How differently do different groups vote? The GM votes followed the same order as the official ranking, perhaps in part because the algorithm gives GM votes extra weight. The Player and Former Player rankings combined actually ranked Myrtle Beach a tiny amount ahead of Minnesota. This was probably influenced by the fact that Myrtle Beach had the best response rate of any team. The player vote also put Kansas City ahead of Tijuana. Does everyone just vote for their own team? Mostly yes. Which is one of the things that the ranking algorithm has been designed to protect against. Portland and Kansas City (and Minnesota too of course) deserve some credit for being the most accurate in ranking themselves. Here you can see how each team ranked themselves compared to the weighted rank score. Dallas Birddogs - self rank: 1 - actual rank: 6.13 Kansas City Coyotes - self rank: 3 - actual rank: 4.06 London Royals - self rank: 1 - actual rank: 6.44 Minnesota Grey Ducks - self rank: 1 - actual rank: 1.44 Myrtle Beach Buccaneers - self rank: 1 - actual rank: 2.13 Norfolk Seawolves - self rank: 1 - actual rank: 4.63 Portland Pythons - self rank: 6 - actual rank: 6.69 Tijuana Luchadores - self rank: 1 - actual rank: 3.44 So The George Washington Cannot Tell a Lie award for honesty goes to... The Portland Pythons (Coyotes receive an honorable mention). The Homer Simpson award for lack of perspective goes to... A tie between our expansion teams The Dallas Birddogs and The London Royals. Did any rivalries stand out? Well while our expansion teams both have great belief in themselves neither seem to have faith that the other will succeed also. Minnesota and Myrtle Beach ranked the other in second place, however a closer look at the data shows that individual voters for both teams ranked the other as low as 6th and 7th place, so clearly there's no love lost after the Ultimini. *S21 DSFL Power Rankings - Preseason - gucci - 03-07-2020 Preseason rankings are always fun. Thanks for putting in this work Cola. Looks great. *S21 DSFL Power Rankings - Preseason - s4ndr0p - 03-07-2020 That is sooo good! *S21 DSFL Power Rankings - Preseason - revuhlution - 03-07-2020 Great content! I would love to see more of this type of content, which mirrors our real football leagues.