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+---- Thread: *Corvo Havran: My Analysis (/showthread.php?tid=21022)
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*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - AdamS - 04-12-2020
All right so I've never done this before. If you've read my writing though you already know some of what to expect. My style is all janky and all over the place and not always serious. But Imma make my point here. Now, if you hadn't heard me say this recently, let me make sure you fully understand what I'm about to say. Corvo Havran is a fucking Hall of Famer. First ballot, unanimous, no questions asked.
Now obviously at the moment he's embroiled in a more immediate conversation. Is he the QB of the Year? The MVP? In short yes. That's a different argument but lemme give you the short version. Armstrong had great pass accuracy. Havran had basically everything else. 32/4 vs 26/2. Armstrong didn't have big ground numbers like he usually does. He had a great seaosn and could easily be given the QBoty while Havran gets a rightful MVP. Now don't get me wrong'. Armstrong's year was great. But Havran did everything he did (more yards, league leading tds, higher yards per completion, higher TD %) on less completions and with a team that featured the #1, #2, and #9 pass droppers in the league this year. OCO's highest placement on that list is a tie for #11. Havran threw 32 TDs to lead the elague and Armstrong was 2nd at 26, a full 6 TDs behind Havran. It's such a notable gap that 8th place is 6 behind Armstrong. Lemme repeat that. 3-8 reside in the same gap that stands between Havran and his runnerup. If his receiving corps behind Maddox could catch a cold, that number owuld be higher. Lemme repeat. The QB managed to have the most TDs by a country mile on the 4th fewest completions while his receiving corp individually finished 1st, 2nd, and 9th on the drops list.
But that's not why we're here, despite what the Otters in the comment section below will tell you. We're here because Corvo Havran is a fucking Hall of Fame QB. Point blank. I'm gonna tell you why. Now, to start, lemme just throw that 32 TDs into frame. The last time someone did that was in S16. Now let me tell you about his TDs overall. And some other stuff.
His 152 TDs is currently 10th all time. I get it. Not immediately impressive. He's started 78 games. The only other person in the top 10 with under 100 games is Cooter Bigsby, whose 185 TDs makes him 7th all-time. He's started 14 games more than Havran. Technically I should mention that Corvan is currently tied with Jameis Christ for 10th and he also started less than 100 games at 96. But you know..that's only true for like...two more weeks? Literally until Corvo throws a TD.
Now on the flipside of that, his 53 Interceptions is an insanely low number as well. No one who has thrown more passes has thrown less than 66. The nearest person to throw fewer than him is Hall of Famer Childish Gambino. Who threw more than 500 fewer passes. In fact, only one other QB has thrown for 2000 passes and has less Interceptions than Havran. His name is Franklin Armstrong and he deserves one of these arguments too. But even he does it on just shy of 800 fewer throws than Havran.
Okay..now there are a lot of numbers I'm throwing at you here. A lot of volume stuff right? Let's talk percentages. Corvo is #4 all time in touchdown percentage at 5.3% (Armstrong is in 5th btw). Ahead of him? 2.5 Hall of Fame QBs. Hi Gambino! He's 3rd all time in interception percentage at 1.9% And by 3rd I mean that technically two guys who threw a combined 10 passes had lower percentages. So really he's clearly the best all-time. Also the sim is rounding up. Corvo's percentage is actually 1.85%. Whereas the others who are "tied" with him have higher. Cue in 2nd is 1.88% and Armstrong in 3rd is 1.92%. Told you he deserved one of these too.
While we're here lets throw in his 13.1 yards per completion which is 2nd all time tow year wonder Jay Cue. As if that counts. Career rating of 91.2? 4th all time behind the Hall of Fame elite and Childish Gambino (shared with Armstrong).
Corvo Havran is not just a Hall of Famer. He's a top five all time elite level Quarterback who can rightfully be called the most efficient QB in league history. And he's not done. Time an nostalgia filters may never allow him or anyone else to ever truly challenge Mike Boss (shoutout to my Demons teammate). But Blockdale? Borkus? Be fucking nervous. Havran is coming. And Armstrong ain't far behind.
Recognizing his MVP season would also be great though.
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - Raven - 04-12-2020
This is smart guy, listen to this guy
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - Opera_Phantom - 04-12-2020
It does count!
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - speculadora - 04-12-2020
Do you realize how bad it is to evaluate anything on a per completion basis? Incompletions are, hot take here, bad. You can't just throw them out when evaluating QB play. In fact the way you're evaluating this, it would be even better in your eyes if Havran had completed 100 passes instead. Armstrong just had the single most efficient QB season - not just by passer rating but by literally any conceivable metric that doesn't use completions as a denominator - in league history. In terms of totals, he finished with more yards and 4 fewer touchdowns. OCO had the best record in the league.
Anyway you are pretty correct in terms of how we have to evaluate QB play in the "modern" NSFL. It's probably impossible to achieve early league volume because of sim balancing. Not just that, but also the current depth of the QB position. Most guys aren't starting now until about their 2nd or 3rd season. And then there's the overall quality of the league, which is much higher than it ever has been. There are no teams against whom you can just try to pad stats, really. The league is too heavily contested to afford giving up anything. QBs are probably, on the whole, throwing fewer passes than ever. I think Gambino getting into the HoF means we've significantly lowered the bar in terms of the kind of volume we expect from hall of fame QBs, which is probably a good thing. But they need to be good, still, and efficiency is our best judge of that. Despite the tone of all of this I'm honestly not sure anyone even thinks this is a debate.
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - AdamS - 04-12-2020
To answer your questions...
Do you realize how bad it is to evaluate anything on a per completion basis?
I realize how bad it is for your argument to use completions yes.
Incompletions are, hot take here, bad. You can't just throw them out when evaluating QB play. In fact the way you're evaluating this, it would be even better in your eyes if Havran had completed 100 passes instead.
What does this even mean? Like it seems to be claiming its making a point but gives no info. If Havran had 100 completions but these stats? Are you saying my argument is that that ludicrously impossible scenario would be better? I have no clue what this argument is supposed to look like when fully formed.
Armstrong just had the single most efficient QB season - not just by passer rating but by literally any conceivable metric that doesn't use completions as a denominator - in league history. In terms of totals, he finished with more yards and 4 fewer touchdowns.
Calling him the most efficient relies 100% on a higher completion percentage to make the entire case. But okay...lets use attempts then. And since you wanted to add rushing stats in for SOME parts, we'll actually use them too.
Havran's 7.55 yards per attempt beats Armstrong's 7.52.
Havran's 7.14 TD% handily beats Armstrong's 5.88 TD%
So...those are some pretty important stats.
OCO had the best record in the league.
And? The defense giving up 60 fewer points will do that. Neither have much to do with the QBs play. Its a sneak argument, like if I had gone on about how Armstrong's already won two MVPs in a row.
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - speculadora - 04-12-2020
Quote:Do you realize how bad it is to evaluate anything on a per completion basis?
I realize how bad it is for your argument to use completions yes.
Ok so you don't then. Let me break this down. Why do you think every stat with the lone exception of yards/completion is calculated on a per attempt basis? Because attempts give you the fullest picture of frequency. Completions are dependent on attempts, but there is not a 1:1 correlation. However, you can only accumulate yards and TDs on completed passes. So you're taking all of a player's stats, but ignoring some of their passes.
And so, if you're evaluating a player on a per completion basis, what is going to make per completions stats higher? More completions or fewer? The answer is fewer completions = better per-completion statistics. When you lower your denominator, the quotient increases. But completions are generally good, so why would you penalize a QB for having more of them?
Quote:Incompletions are, hot take here, bad. You can't just throw them out when evaluating QB play. In fact the way you're evaluating this, it would be even better in your eyes if Havran had completed 100 passes instead.
What does this even mean? Like it seems to be claiming its making a point but gives no info. If Havran had 100 completions but these stats? Are you saying my argument is that that ludicrously impossible scenario would be better? I have no clue what this argument is supposed to look like when fully formed.
To lay this out in a hypothetical, let's say you have two QBs. We'll hold everything else in this equation equal. Only the quarterback differs in comparing these two stat lines.
QB A: 200 completions, 300 attempts, 3000 yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
QB B: 150 completions, 300 attempts, 3000 yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Given only this information you are arguing definitively that QB B is statistically better than QB A. If I lowered QB B's completions to 100 - again holding everything else exactly the same - the statistics you are using would actually say QB B just got even better relative to QB A.
Quote:Armstrong just had the single most efficient QB season - not just by passer rating but by literally any conceivable metric that doesn't use completions as a denominator - in league history. In terms of totals, he finished with more yards and 4 fewer touchdowns.
Calling him the most efficient relies 100% on a higher completion percentage to make the entire case. But okay...lets use attempts then. And since you wanted to add rushing stats in for SOME parts, we'll actually use them too.
Havran's 7.55 yards per attempt beats Armstrong's 7.52.
Havran's 7.14 TD% handily beats Armstrong's 5.88 TD%
So...those are some pretty important stats.
I'm not sure how you're calculating yards per attempt. Armstrong's passing YPA was 8.2, Havran's was 7.7. It seems like you're just mashing rushing and passing together, but that ignores the fact that the two are entirely different types of attempts.
For more information on why I'm saying what I'm saying, you're welcome to check out this article I posted. I also have TANY/A (which includes rushing) and ANY/A if you want those.
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Quote:OCO had the best record in the league.
And? The defense giving up 60 fewer points will do that. Neither have much to do with the QBs play. Its a sneak argument, like if I had gone on about how Armstrong's already won two MVPs in a row.
We also had the 2nd most PF in the league. I believe, unless I'm mistaken, that because NOLA had 4 ST touchdowns, our offense also accounted for more points as a unit than any other offense. We're talking about MVP here, I'm telling you that pointing out that the best player, doing what he did, on the team with the best reg. season record, is not exactly a ludicrous argument. It's kinda pointless without context, but I would say I've sufficiently provided that.
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - AdamS - 04-12-2020
"Armstrong just had the single most efficient QB season - not just by passer rating but by literally any conceivable metric that doesn't use completions as a denominator - in league history. In terms of totals, he finished with more yards and 4 fewer touchdowns."
That's your quote. Now you're saying oh no you cant mash together rushing and passing after that quote.
Pick a side.
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - shadyshoelace - 04-12-2020
Corner Hatrack for MVP
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - speculadora - 04-12-2020
(04-12-2020, 04:22 PM)AdamS Wrote:"Armstrong just had the single most efficient QB season - not just by passer rating but by literally any conceivable metric that doesn't use completions as a denominator - in league history. In terms of totals, he finished with more yards and 4 fewer touchdowns."
That's your quote. Now you're saying oh no you cant mash together rushing and passing after that quote.
Pick a side.
I did, I proved both sides.
*Corvo Havran: My Analysis - roastfuego - 04-12-2020
Can I say that they are both great QBs and I am honored to play in a time where I get to witness two greats do battle? It's our version of Brees and Brady baby!