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*DSFL S25 Draft order 1-4 - DarknessRising - 07-19-2020

With the way the new season schedule has worked out, whilst the International Simulation Football League has completed its regular season, the Developmental Simulation Football league still has one more game to go. However, unlike the ISFL where the final games were full of anxious onlookers to see if their team could make it to the playoffs, the DSFL teams are already settled, only home field advantage between the top two seeds can be fought for. Knowing exactly what teams are in the top 4 and bottom 4, instead of doing a playoff chance, I decided to take those bottom 4 teams and run each scenario for the last game results to see who will end up with each pick. The bottom 4 teams are; Portland Pythons, Myrtle Beach Buccaneers, Minnesota Grey Ducks and Tijuana Luchadores.

During the last week, each bottom four team verses a team in the top 4, meaning all games come into play when determining order for draft picks, and also HFA for the playoffs for the other teams. The week 14 games are as follows:

Por @ KCC
LON @ MBB
DAL @ MIN
Nor @ TIJ

The records of the bottom 4 teams are as follows. Also included, are their head to head against the other bottom teams since this is used as the first tie breaker when records are even. After that, their conference record, 6 games, is used and i have included that as well (wins – lose). Also, noteworthy, if there are three teams tied on the same record, it goes to combined head to head record. That is, the record is calculate in the 4 games played against the other two teams and will show up in some of the potential situations.

Tijuana Luchadores:
Record: 6-7-0
Head to Head: 1-1 VS Portland, 1-1 VS Minnesota, 2-0 VS Myrtle Beach
Conference Record: 2-3

Myrtle Beach Buccaneers:
Record: 5-8-0
Head to Head: 2-0 VS Portland, 2-0 VS Minnesota, 0-2 VS Tijuana
Conference Record: 1-5

Minnesota Grey Ducks:
Record: 5-8-0
Head to Head: 1-1 VS Portland, 0-2 VS Myrtle Beach, 1-1 VS Tijuana
Conference Record: 3-3

Portland Pythons:
Record: 4-9-0
Head to Head: 1-1 VS Minnesota, 0-2 VS Myrtle Beach, 0-2 VS Tijuana
Conference Record: 3-2

So, there is 16 possible results, not including ties, that the final day of game results can go. Each scenario will be listed and the updated bottom four will be written out, with tie breakers, to see who will have what pick. For ease, I will list it as who has what pick and after each situation, a summary of each team’s chance to what pick. This of course is without the chance of actually winning or losing for any team but those with an idea about this, will be able to see which scenario is in fact more likely that what all the possible scenarios reveal. For a quick summary:
Scenario 1 & 2, all win or lose
Scenario 3-6, one team win
Scenario 7-10, one team loses
scenario 11-16, two teams wins, two teams lose.

Scenario 1 – All bottom 4 teams win
1OA pick – Portland pythons
2OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Very simple since each team gets the same result, Minnesota get pick 2 in the tie break since they lost both games against Myrtle Beach in the head to head.

Scenario 2 – All bottom 4 teams lose
1OA pick – Portland pythons
2OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Just like situation 1, very simple since all teams get the same result and again, tie breaker gives Minnesota 2OA and Myrtle Beach 3OA.

Scenario 3 – Portland win, MINN, MBB and TIJ lose
1OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
2OA pick – Portland Pythons
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Portland, Minnesota and Myrtle Beach all tied on 5-8. By join head to head, Myrtle beach is 4-0 and takes 3OA. Minnesota and Portland are both 1-3, being 1-1 against each other. Portland’s win gives them the better conference record, 4-2 compared to 3-3, and means they get 2OA and Minnesota get 1OA

Scenario 4 – Minnesota win, POR, MBB and TIJ lose
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
3OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
4OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
Portland and Myrtle Beach easily slot in at 1OA and 2OA. Tijuana and Minnesota have a tied record, 1-1 head to head, but the lost for the Luchadores give them a conference record of 2-4, worse than Minnesota’s 3-3, giving them 3OA.

Scenario 5 – Myrtle Beach win, POR, MINN and TIJ lose
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Similar to situation 4, Portland and Minnesota slot straight in for 1OA and 2OA. Myrtle Beach and Tijuana tie, but Tijuana won both games against the Buccaneers, giving them 4OA and the Myrtle Beach team 3OA.

Scenario 6 – Tijuana win, POR, MINN and MBB lose
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick - Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
The final 1 team winning situation, like the others, two teams slot straight in, Portland at 1OA and Tijuana at 4OA. Myrtle Beach and Minnesota have a tied record, but Myrtle Beach won both games, making them 3OA and Minnesota getting 2OA.

Scenario 7 – Portland lose, MINN, MBB and TIJ win
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Once again, Portland and Tijuana slot straight into 1OA and 4OA pick. Minnesota, as established, are 0-2 head to head against Myrtle beach, meaning they get 2OA in the tie breaker, leaving Myrtle Beach with 3OA.

Scenario 8 – Minnesota lose, POR, MBB and TIJ win
1OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
2OA pick – Portland Pythons
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Myrtle beach and Tijuana slot straight in. The tie breaker between Portland and Minnesota comes down to conference record, where Portland winning makes there’s 4-2 compared to 3-3, giving 1OA to Minnesota.

Scenario 9 – Myrtle Beach lose, POR, MINN and TIJ win
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
3OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Minnesota and Tijuana go straight into 3OA and 4OA pick. Head to head between Portland and Myrtle Beach is two wins for Myrtle beach, making them 2OA and Portland 1OA pick.

Scenario 10 – Tijuana lose, POR, MINN and MBB win
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Portland gets 1OA whilst the other three teams all tie. On a combined head to head record, Minnesota are 1-3, Myrtle Beach go 2-2 and Tijuana are 3-1. Therefore, Minnesota get 2OA, Myrtle Beach 3OA and Tijuana ends up with 4OA.

Scenario 11 – Portland and Myrtle Beach win, MINN and TIJ lose
1OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
2OA pick – Portland Pythons
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
The start of two winners and two losers, sees two different tie breakers. Myrtle beach and Tijuana tie but Tijuana were 2-0 head to head and get 4OA and Myrtle Beach get 3OA. Portland’s win ties them with Minnesota, and having beat them 2-0, they get 2OA whilst Minnesota get 1OA.

Scenario 12 – Portland and Minnesota win, MBB and TIJ lose
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
3OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
4OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
There are two sets of tie breakers. Minnesota and Tijuana are tied for record, and head to head, but the loss for Tijuana makes their conference record 2-4, with Minnesota having a 3-3 conference record, Tijuana gets 3OA and Minnesota 4OA. Portland lost both games to Myrtle Beach giving them 1OA.

Scenario 13 – Portland and Tijuana win, MINN and MBB lose
1OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
2OA pick – Portland Pythons
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Tijuana slot straight into 4OA pick whilst there is a 3-way tie. On combined head to head, Myrtle Beach are 4-0, giving them 3OA whilst both Minnesota and Portland are both 1-3 and goes to conference record. Portland’s win makes them 4-2 and Minnesota are 3-3, making Portland 2OA and Minnesota 1OA.

Scenario 14 – Minnesota and Myrtle Beach win, POR and TIJ lose
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Portland get the instant 1OA pick whilst the other 3 teams tie. In the combined head to head, Tijuana are 3-1, Myrtle beach 2-2 and Minnesota 1-3, meaning they get 4OA, 3OA and 2OA respectively.

Scenario 15 – Minnesota and Tijuana win, POR and MBB lose
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
3OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
A situation with no tie breakers, meaning easily placed teams to work out what team has what.

Scenario 16 – Myrtle Beach and Tijuana win, POR and MINN lose
1OA pick – Portland Pythons
2OA pick – Minnesota Grey Ducks
3OA pick – Myrtle Beach Buccaneers
4OA pick – Tijuana Luchadores
Very similar to the previous one, each team has a different record making this very easy to determine who gets what pick.

Summary
Combining all this information into a quick table, we can see how many situations lend to each team getting what pick

[Image: IXHQjpx.png]

So, without ties happening (hasn’t been one in the DSFL or ISFL this season so far), Portland has one hand on the 1OA pick for the draft but can still drop it to Minnesota, regulating them to 2OA. On the flip side, Tijuana have a hand and ahlf on 4OA but can still luck out and get 3OA if results go there way. Myrtle Beach would either get 2OA or 3OA without ties which leaves Minnesota. The Grey Ducks can get any of the four picks are will definitely be the most anxious management group come day since every result will play a role in their resulting pick position.

There is patterns that will much easily and clearly work out what pick each team will get at it is as follows

Portland Pythons:
1OA = Lose OR Win and Minnesota win
2OA = Win and Minnesota lose

Minnesota Grey Ducks:
1OA = Lose AND Portland Win
2OA = Lose AND Portland Lose OR Win AND Myrtle Beach Win
3OA = Win AND Myrtle Beach Lose
4OA = Win AND Myrtle Beach Lose AND Tijuana Lose

Myrtle Beach Buccaneers:
2OA = Lose AND Minnesota Win
3OA = Win

Tijuana Luchadores:
3OA = Lose AND Minnesota Wins AND Myrtle Beach Loses
4OA = Win OR Lose AND Minnesota Lose OR Lose AND Minnesota Win AND Myrtyle Beach Wins

Code:
1792 words by my count


*DSFL S25 Draft order 1-4 - Faded - 07-19-2020

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