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+---- Thread: *Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List (/showthread.php?tid=25162)
*Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - mithrandir - 08-24-2020
The number one agent in the league, TubbyTim69, released the first of many mock protection lists to come for the upcoming ISFL expansion. I mostly agree with his list, but he mistook the rules regarding GM protections, and said that three players can be claimed from each team (it's actually two), so the list could use a little improvement. Here is my own attempt at predicting which players will be protected and which will be left vulnerable to expansion. I will also indicate which player I think will be the first claimed from each team, which player will receive the secondary protection, and which will be the second player claimed. But first, here are the expansion rules:
Teams start with 8 Protection Slots
Teams gain an additional protection slot after a player is claimed in the expansion draft
2 players may be taken from any one team
S24 players are automatically protected
There are rules regarding losing players from your roster that are the new expansion GMs, but since we do not know those yet, I will not include that in my mock lists
In general, my protection lists will follow the following thought processes:
1. Protect GM players, except in extreme cases
2. Protect franchise QB
3. Protect elite young talent from S21 and S23
4. If the team still has spots open, protect best remaining players regardless of age
5. Positions that have great depth get left unprotected or receive secondary protection after one player from that position is claimed.
Arizona OutlawsProtected:
GM CB Desmond Scarlett - S20 - 993 TPE
QB Jay Cue - S18 - 1393 TPE
TE Heath Evans - S22 - 721 TPE
CB Zamir Kehla - S22 - 699 TPE
DT Pete "Plop" Miller - S21 - 863 TPE
LB Galf Wilf - S20 - 890 TPE
LB Stanislaw Koniecpolski - S22 - 665 TPE
DE Sandro Ryeu - S22 - 663 TPE
First player claimed: OL Bruce Buckley
Arizona secondary protection: OL Julio Jones
Second player claimed: WR Thomas Passman
Arizona is the team with the most to lose in expansion. They have an overabundance of young and talented players, and should consider themselves lucky that teams are only losing two players in this expansion. They must protect the GM player and their franchise QB. I also expect them to protect four of their many talented S22 players. They should protect Evans, one of the top earners in the massive S22 class and a valuable team member as a DSFL GM and rookie mentor. Kehla is a no-brainer as well as a young Pro Bowl cornerback. Miller is an elite earner and still in his prime. Wilf is the reigning DPOY, so he will likely be shielded, as will his linebacker running-mate S22 first round pick Koniecpolski. The last protection slot was difficult to decide, but given Arizona's depth at WR and OL, it makes sense for them to protect DE Ryeu. The most surprising omission from the list? GM and Safety Benoit Blanco. Blanco has been a very poor TPE earner, and given the great talent on the roster, it would be foolish to waste a protection slot on him. I expect Arizona to have a new co-GM by this time next season. I expect that if Buckley is left unprotected he will be snagged immediately perhaps the best young OL prospect in the league. Arizona will protect Julio Jones in response, and they will still have a good pair of tackles in Jones and Calvin Golloday. Finally, the last player Arizona will lose is Passman. We saw quite a few receivers drafted in the last expansion and will probably see a similar trend this season. Passman is the one to go after here, as Donut is regressing and Bur'Berry is retiring. Arizona is lucky that they are able to keep all three of their talented S23 players in Petrongolo, Jadakiss, and Jones.
Austin CopperheadsProtected:
GM QB Easton Cole - S16 - 1043 TPE
DE Carolinabbq Isbest - S20 - 811 TPE
WR Eddie Jeeta - S22 - 715 TPE
CB Colt Mendoza - S22 - 686 TPE
DE Troen Egghands - S22 - 711 TPE
LB Griffin Porter - S23 - 484 TPE
WR Videl-San - S23 - 541 TPE
DE Slinky Claxton - S22 - 612 TPE
First player claimed: WR Net Gaines
Austin secondary protection: CB Dermot Lavelle Jr.
Second player claimed: RB Kichwa Jones
This was a pretty easy protection list. Teams must protect their young talent from expansion, and Austin does not have that many great earners from S20 and later. It would have made sense for Cole to retire after this season and save the protection slot for someone else, but with no apparent succession plan at quarterback, Austin will be forced to shield Cole, barring a position switch or a trade with Yellowknife or Arizona for their backup QB. The rest of the list is pretty much set in stone in my opinion. Perhaps the biggest surprise protection is Griffin Porter over Net Gaines, but with the increased importance of linebacker in the league it makes sense to protect their only young active player at the position. Net Gaines will likely be claimed, but it is the right move to let him go, given that he is regressing next season and Austin has two good young players at the position. Despite being a couple seasons into regression it still makes sense to use secondary protection on Lavelle Jr, as he has amassed so much TPE that he can survive another round of regression. If they lost him their secondary would go from average to very bad quite quickly. Austin will likely be choosing between Claxton and Jones for the last protection slot, but will I expect they will let Jones go and replace him with DSFL superstar RB Zoe Watts.
Baltimore HawksProtect:
GM WR Asher Quinn - S18 - 954 TPE
GM S CJ Riley - S23 - 397 TPE
QB Chika Fujiwara - S21 - 821 TPE
RB Darrell Williams - S20 - 987 TPE
CB Eldrick Avery - S22 - 716 TPE
WR Nick Kaepercolin - S22 - 704 TPE
LB Derred De Ville - S22 - 687 TPE
DT Tyler Montain - S23 - 604 TPE
First player claimed: CB Lesean Paris Crooks
Baltimore secondary protection: CB Ben Stackinpaper
Second player claimed: LB Dex Kennedy
This was another easy list. Baltimore has some great young talent but the bottom of their roster is pretty poor, so they did not have too many players who were great candidates for protection. They will protect their two GMs, their franchise QB and RB, their three best S22 prospects, and DT Tyler Montain, who in my opinion will be the highest TPE earner in league history when his career ends. After protecting Avery, they will leave their second and third CB unguarded, knowing they can use secondary protection on the one that does not get taken and call up Safety Maverick Bowie next season. With not much left to choose from, I think Kennedy will be claimed second as one of the best linebackers left unshielded.
Chicago ButchersProtected:
GM OL Benson Bayley Jr. - S22 - 608 TPE
GM DT John "Tripod" Smirh - S21 - 765 TPE
QB George O'Donnell - S21 - 802 TPE
CB Osiris Firestorm-Fjord - S21 - 899 TPE
CB Tyler Oles Jr. - S22 - 714 TPE
RB Baby Yoda - S21 - 849 TPE
WR Sean O'Leary - S19 - 1121 TPE
S Hamish MacAndrew - S22 - 631 TPE
First player claimed: LB Mike Hockhertz
Chicago secondary protection: DE Mario Von Pebbles
Second player claimed: WR Luca Scabbia
The first seven protections were no-brainers. They protected their GMs, their QB, perhaps their two best players in CBs Firestorm-Fjord and Oles Jr, the newly acquired Yoda, and their franchise player O'Leary. The last spot was difficult to decide, but as good as Hockhertz has been for Chicago over the years, it makes sense to let him go as they will call up S24 1oa Juan Domine next season. They have six receivers on the roster, so it is unlike they protect a second after O'Leary. The last spot was between Von Pebbles and MacAndrew. I went MacAndrew since he plays a more valuable position and adds value as a user with his talent for analysis. After Hockhertz goes, Chicago will protect Von Pebbles to keep their front seven somewhat intact. I also expect Chicago to lose a receiver given their depth at the position, and Scabbia is a promising young talent.
Colorado YetiProtected:
GM DT Bubba Thumper - S17 - 1226 TPE
QB Wolfie McDummy - S16 - 1062 TPE
DE Immanuel Blackstone - S21 - 898 TPE
WR William Lim - S22 - 701 TPE
OL Mo "Mamba" Magic - S22 - 646 TPE
S Greedy Sly - S23 - 554 TPE
LB Adelie de Pengu - S23 - 545 TPE
CB Rotticus Scott - S21 - 763 TPE
First player claimed: CB Louisiana Purchase
Colorado secondary protection: LB Warren Stephens
Second player claimed: RB Richard Gilbert
I do not envy the position the Colorado GMs find themselves in. They have an impossible task ahead of them to determine their protection list. Their roster is stacked with talent from top to bottom at every position and experience level. Despite rumors swirling about a change at GM for Colorado, I think they will protect Thumper regardless, as he will still be over 1000 TPE after his second season of regression. Caliban is not ready at QB yet so McDummy needs to stay. After that, they need to prioritize keeping their incredible core of young talent and great users and preserving the future. Unfortunately, this means leaving many great veteran players unprotected who helped win a championship just two seasons ago. Purchase, Owens, Sauce, Parker, Stephens, and Banana are all great players at their positions but are at or too near regression to warrant protection with the young talent they have on the roster. I think Purchase will be claimed despite approaching regression since 1000 TPE CBs are so valuable. Colorado will react by protecting their second linebacker since they have a lack of depth at the position. They will likely lose RB Gilbert since running back is a very shallow position in the S25 draft and most teams want to run a backfield by committee. Gilbert will probably be the most talented young back left unprotected, since Colorado will just replace him with Owens and Bumper.
Honolulu HahaluaProtected:
GM RB Keʻokeʻo Kāne-Maikaʻi - S22 - 656 TPE
QB Luke Skywalker - S22 - 647 TPE
K/P Venus Powers - S20 - 1003 TPE
S Shawn Dawkins - S22 - 700 TPE
CB Jim Waters - S22 - 629 TPE
LB Heinrich Kackpoo - S23 - 580 TPE
CB Ray-Ray Jackson - S23 - 466 TPE
RB Nicholas Ayers - S23 - 469 TPE
First player claimed: DE Logan Noble Jr.
Honolulu secondary protection: WR Jed Podolak
Second player claimed: LB Jack Banks
Honolulu, one of the two most recent expansion teams, get a taste of their own medicine as they are now trying to protect their roster in expansion. I expect them to prioritize the future, keeping three S23 players instead of older players at higher TPE values. I think they will likely try to keep both their starting CBs and both RBs though they might protect Noble Jr. instead of Jackson or Ayers. I think they will use their secondary protection on Skywalker's number one target Podolak. Banks is a solid young linebacker, but Kackpoo is a future star, so Banks is likely leaving Honolulu.
New Orleans Second LineProtected (note-I am in the NOLA war room but I am using the decision-making process I used for other teams, not inside information):
GM RB Forrest Gump - S15 - 852 TPE
GM CB David Rector - S18 - 1361 TPE
QB Ben Slothlisberger - S22 - 705 TPE
DT Magnus Rikiya - S22 - 712 TPE
CB Andrew Witten - S22 - 709 TPE
S Mason Blaylock - S19 - 1169 TPE
WR Ed Barker - S21 - 758 TPE
RB Marcella Toriki - S18 - 1296 TPE
First player claimed: TE Austin McCormick
NOLA secondary protection: OL Givussafare Rubbe
Second player claimed: S Literally Just A. Hexagon
Like Colorado, NOLA will be faced with letting some star veteran players walk. After protecting their GMs, their QB, and their best S21 and S22 players, they are forced to pick two of their S18 and S19 stars to protect out of Toriki, Rubbe, Blaylock, and McCormick. Blaylock is one of the best defensive players in the league and an easy protection. Toriki will have the most TPE next season of the three remaining and plays an important position, so she probably gets the last spot. When choosing between Colorado's Earl Sauce and NOLA's Austin McCormick, teams are more likely to go after McCormick, in my opinion, as he is one year younger, so he is probably the first player taken from NOLA. NOLA loves their OL, so they probably protect Rubbe next, and lose safety Literally Just A. Hexagon, who they replace with S24 safety Quentin Button.
Orange County OttersProtect:
GM CB Korrin Abernathy - S18 - 1342 TPE
GM S Tyrone Biggums - S18 - 1247 TPE
QB Sulemain Ramza - S22 - 656 TPE
S Prince Vegeta - S21 - 937 TPE
WR Future Trunks - S21 - 757 TPE
RB Tatsu Nakamura - S22 - 710 TPE
CB Lord Beerus - S19 - 1011 TPE
TE Jeffrey Phillips - S22 - 671 TPE
If Armstrong plays one more season:
First player claimed: QB Franklin Armstrong
Orange County secondary protection: LB Deshun Jones
Second player claimed: DT Rapid Eagle
If Armstrong retires at the end of the season:
First player claimed: LB Deshun Jones
Orange County secondary protection: DT Rapid Eagle
Second player claimed: S Bob Bob
Joe Montana to the Chiefs. Peyton Manning to the Broncos. Tom Brady to the Buccaneers. Franklin Armstrong to an expansion team. Such is the life of an aging all-time great quarterback. It is time for Sulemain Ramza to take over, so if Armstrong decides to play next season it will be in a different jersey. He could certainly still start one more season next year, as he will be better than anyone that the expansion teams will be able to acquire from the S24 or S25 drafts. That is likely not going to happen though, so I will predict that the Otters will lose a pair of defensive starters and hang on to Eagle.
Philadelphia LibertyProtect:
GM WR Randy Vuxta - S20 - 801 TPE
GM CB Brandon Booker - S22 - 720 TPE
QB Brock Phoenix - S19
WR Flash Panda - S21 - 733 TPE
S Matt "Son of Havoc" Cross - S22 - 724 TPE
S Wesley Eriksen - S22 - 633 TPE
S Eugene Smoothie - S23 - 524 TPE
DE Tycker Om - 397 TPE
First player claimed: OL Simon Tremblay
Philadelphia secondary protection: LB Spike Suzuki
Second player claimed: TE Avon Blocksdale Jr.
This is a bad roster and their record reflects it. They need a total rebuild, so they should keep their best young players and start over. They are probably safe to leave both their regressing running backs unguarded with guys like Jones and Gilbert available. They will protect their receivers and secondary, the lone bright spots on this bleak roster. Without much to choose from, I think they will likely lose their only offensive lineman to expansion. In response they will protect the next best defender on their team in Suzuki. Whichever team misses out on McCormick will still need a tight end, and with Colorado losing two players early in the draft, Earl Sauce will be locked up, so Blocksdale will be the best option left, despite his slowed earning.
San Jose SabercatsGM QB Monty Jack - S22 - 709 TPE
GM DE Water Chesnut III - S23 - 437 TPE
DT Otis Allen - S21 - 899 TPE
TE Leon McDavid - S21 - 876 TPE
CB HeHateMe PickSix - S21 - 746 TPE
RB Jamar Lackson - S22 - 723 TPE
K/P Matthew McDairmid - S22 - 699 TPE
WR Tychondrius Hood - S23 - 552 TPE
First player claimed: LB Lawrence Bass
Sabercats secondary protection: LB Tyron Brackenridge
Second player claimed: WR Deondre Thomas-Fox
The Sabercats have a lot of great young talent and are going to be forced to leave some veterans vulnerable to expansion. Given their depth at LB, I think they will leave all three unprotected and use secondary protection on the unclaimed one. Bass and Brackenridge could easily be swapped here depending on the team's preference. The most surprising protection might be K/P McDairmid, but he is one of the best players in the league at the position and a sim tester for SJ and will almost certainly be claimed if left unguarded. Wide receivers were highly sought after in the previous expansion so I imagine Thomas-Fox will be taken and the Sabercats will call up Josh Campbell to replace him.
Sarasota SailfishProtect:
GM RB Raphtalia Chan - S21 - 927 TPE
GM WR Michael Witheblock - S22 - 708 TPE
QB Dexter Banks III - S17 - 1066 TPE
WR Rayne Gordon - S19 - 1069 TPE
DT Cuco Clemente - S22 - 713 TPE
LB Haha Mango-Panda - S22 - 696 TPE
TE James Angler - S22 - 681 TPE
DE Son Goku - S23 - 570 TPE
First player claimed: S Jamie Nkiah
Sarasota secondary protection: CB Xavien Adams
Second player claimed: LB Fawn Dilmiballs
There are tough decisions ahead for the team with the best record in the league so far. After protecting their GMs, QB, and star receiver, they protect their four best young players but leave some good defensive players open to be poached. After losing Jamie Nkiah, Sarasota will be forced to protect CB Xavien Adams to try to salvage their secondary, despite Adams entering regression next season. After that, the Sailfish will say goodbye to Dilmiballs after protecting Mango-Panda instead.
Yellowknife WraithsProtect:
GM QB Colby Jack - S22 - 747 TPE
GM DT Patrik Money - S22 - 697 TPE
LB Douglas Quaid - S21 - 893 TPE
RB Acura Skyline - S22 - 721 TPE
DE James Cho - S22 - 716 TPE
S Johnny Hellzapoppin - S22 - 708 TPE
WR Kai Sakura - S23 - 560 TPE
CB Mervin Leonard - S17 - 1067 TPE
First player claimed: RB Mathias Hanyadi
Orange County secondary protection: LB Maurice Virtanen
Second player claimed: K/P Dougie Smalls
Yellowknife will protect their GMs and their great young talent, and Leonard needs to be protected as well since they have no other viable cornerbacks on the roster. It seems quite likely that Skyline gets shielded instead of the aging Hanyadi, who will instantly be the biggest name available in expansion. After he is claimed, Yellowknife will have a tough decision for their secondary protection. It might make sense to guard Virtanen who is a superstar but is both regressing and inactive. If that happens, I would not be surprised to see someone go after Smalls, the best kicker that was left unprotected.
Players claimed:
OL Bruce Buckley
WR Thomas Passman
WR Net Gaines
RB Kichwa Jones
CB Lesean Paris Crooks
LB Dex Kennedy
LB Mike Hockhertz
WR Luca Scabbia
CB Louisiana Purchase
RB Richard Gilbert
DE Logan Noble Jr.
LB Jack Banks
TE Austin McCormick
S Literally Just A. Hexagon
LB Deshun Jones
S Bob Bob
OL Simon Tremblay
TE Avon Blocksdale Jr.
LB Lawrence Bass Jr.
WR Deondre Thomas-Fox
S Jamie Nkiah
LB Fawn Dilmiballs
RB Mathias Hanyadi
K/P Dougie Smalls
By position:
0 QB
3 RB
4 WR
2 TE
2 OL
0 DT
1 DE
6 LB
2 CB
3 S
1 K/P
There are so many things I do not know about teams that could easily change these predictions: retiring players and GMs, position switchers, and perhaps biggest of all, who the expansion GMs will be. I do think. however, that this is a fairly accurate assessment of each situation. Some closing thoughts:
Given the lack of talent at DL I would not be surprised at all to see 6 linebackers drafted in expansion and have some convert to DE.
There are not 14 starting-caliber quarterbacks next season, so the expansion teams could be in for a rough season on offense. To compensate, I think lots of offensive skill players will be headed to the expansion teams, especially since many teams have great depth at wide receiver.
Finally, if I wrote that you'll be unprotected, please do not take it personally. I very well might be wrong. I did the best I could with the info I have!
Thanks for reading!
Mithrandir
RE: Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - AdamS - 08-24-2020
league wisdom says....if you're ever writing one of these and you think to yourself "this part was easy"
thats the one you got wrong
RE: Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - Wombat - 08-24-2020
wtf i was protected over hex lmao
RE: Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - Memento Mori - 08-24-2020
I could be wrong but I think if AZ wants to keep xQC as GM they'd have to protect him - that's how it's worked in the past and why we've seen GM players retire ahead of expansion drafts. So if AZ wants to leave xQC unprotected I think they have to fire him as co-GM.
RE: Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - mithrandir - 08-24-2020
(08-24-2020, 09:06 AM)Memento Mori Wrote: I could be wrong but I think if AZ wants to keep xQC as GM they'd have to protect him - that's how it's worked in the past and why we've seen GM players retire ahead of expansion drafts. So if AZ wants to leave xQC unprotected I think they have to fire him as co-GM.I would not be surprised if that is what they do.
RE: Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - Faded - 08-24-2020
this is a pretty neat article mith
RE: Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - Drizzy - 08-24-2020
interesting
RE: Mith's Expansion Draft Mock Protection List - mithrandir - 08-25-2020
(08-24-2020, 01:52 AM)AdamS Wrote: league wisdom says....if you're ever writing one of these and you think to yourself "this part was easy"That's fair. I do feel fairly confident that I got 5-6 right per team at least. I hope I am at least in the right ballpark
thats the one you got wrong