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+---- Thread: *DSFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities (/showthread.php?tid=25486)
*DSFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - Cody - 09-07-2020
There are only 4 weeks remaining in Season 24 of the DSFL and it's a tight race in both divisions. It is especially a logjam in the NFC. I decided to take a fantasy football playoff probability simulator and tweak it to fit the DSFL.
Here's the base link, if you can improve upon it I say go for it!
https://spreadsheetsolving.com/fantasy_football_monte_carlo/
The basics of it are, I took the standard deviation of scores for all 10 weeks of the season which equaled out to 9.68. I used the formula provided which takes the mean score for teams for the season and the standard deviation of 9.68 to give us a random score. (Scores can go negative which is the same as scoring 0 points)
The only issue I really had is I couldn't split it out based on divisions, so in some instances Tijuana, Portland, Kansas City and London would make the playoffs and since that isn't possible in the league I had to manipulate it a bit.
Here is an example of a simulation where this happened. In this case London lost their playoff spot and it was awarded to Norfolk.
![[Image: 19pNCZj.png]](https://i.imgur.com/19pNCZj.png)
That's a quick rundown of what I used to figure out the odds of teams making the playoffs based off the current standings. It's not perfect, for instance I didn't factor in homefield advantage)but it is a decent tool.
Now let's get to the fun! Here is a current look at the standings after Week 10.
SFC
Tijuana Luchadores: 7-3
Norfolk Seawolves: 6-4
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers: 5-5
Dallas Birddogs: 3-7
NFC
Portland Pythons: 5-5
Kansas City Coyotes: 5-5
London Royals: 5-5
Minnesota Grey Ducks: 4-6
SFC
Tijuana Luchadores | Current Record: 7-3 | Playoff Probability: 100% | Average Number of Wins: 8.6Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - vs Minnesota
Week 12 - at London
Week 13 - vs Portland
Week 14 - at Norfolk
My Take
Tijuana has a virtual lock on making the playoffs. They were the only team to make the playoffs each time I ran the simulation. It's not hard to see why, they currently have a 1 game lead over Norfolk and a 2 game lead over Myrtle Beach. They have a very winnable game at home vs Minnesota and should be able to win 1 or 2 more in their remaining 3 games. The Tijuana defense plays with an aggressive pass rush which has been more boom than bust this season. I think they go 3-1 in their last 4 games and finish the season 10-4. That being said, anything can happen in this league!
Norfolk Seawolves | Current Record: 6-4 | Playoff Probability: 75% | Average Number of Wins: 7.8Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - at Myrtle Beach
Week 12 - at Kansas City
Week 13 - vs London
Week 14 - at Tijuana
My Take
Similar to Tijuana Norfolk is in the driver's seat. They have a 1 game lead over Myrtle Beach and play them in Week 11. If they can get the win there it could be smooth sailing as they should be able to get 1 more win in their last 3 games, especially against London at home Week 13. The defending champions should find themselves trying to protect their crown and head to Tijuana in the Conference Championship. If they lose at Myrtle Beach they could be in a lot of trouble as they have 2 tough away games at Kansas City Week 12 and at Tijuana Week 14. The season really hinges on that Week 11 game against the Buccaneers. I predict Norfolk goes 2-2 to finish the season at 8-6 and sneak into the playoffs.
Myrtle Beach Buccaneers | Current Record: 5-5 | Playoff Probability: 25% | Average Number of Wins: 6.8Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - vs Norfolk
Week 12 - at Portland
Week 13 - at Dallas
Week 14 - vs Minnesota
My Take
Myrtle Beach looked like they were playoff bound until a 3 game losing streak has put that in real jeopardy. The Bucs aren't out of the picture yet but running the simulation they only had a 55% chance to make the playoffs. There's still plenty of hope as Norfolk has had a rough go of it as late. If Myrtle Beach can get 3 wins out of their last 4 games there is a real chance of them making it to the playoffs. I think Myrtle Beach goes 2-2 to finish out the season and just misses out on the playoffs with a 7-7 record.
Dallas Birddogs | Current Record: 3-7 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 4.4Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - vs London
Week 12 - at Minnesota
Week 13 - vs Myrtle Beach
Week 14 - vs Portland
My Take
Dallas is essentially out of the playoffs, they didn't make it once in the simulation. It's not hard to see why as Dallas would need to go 4-0, have Norfolk go 0-4 and Myrtle Beach do no better than 1-3. Dallas has a home friendly schedule to finish the season and I think they are able to pull out 2 wins in the last 4 games to finish the season with a 5-9 record and a top 2 pick in the Season 25 DSFL draft.
NFC
Portland Pythons | Current Record: 5-5 | Playoff Probability: 55% | Average Number of Wins: 6.4Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - vs Kansas City
Week 12 - vs Myrtle Beach
Week 13 - at Tijuana
Week 14 - at Dallas
My Take
The simulation did not like Portland's chances only giving them a 55% chance to make the playoffs. Portland has two very winnable games to start at home against Kansas City and Myrtle Beach, I think they lose against Tijuana and finish off with a road victory against Dallas. Portland is going to make the playoffs by finishing up the season going 3-1 for an overall record of 8-6 and the NFC Crown.
Kansas City Coyotes | Current Record: 5-5 | Playoff Probability: 80% | Average Number of Wins: 7.6Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - at Portland
Week 12 - vs Norfolk
Week 13 - vs Minnesota
Week 14 - at London
My Take
Kansas City made the playoffs in 80% of the simulations I ran. In the majority of simulations Kansas City went 3-1 in the final 4 games to finish up the season at 8-6. Kansas City has been a very good team this season 4 of their 5 losses were by 7 points or less. I think Kansas City is able to go 2-2 with wins over Norfolk and Minnesota and get the #2 Seed and go to Portland in the NFC Championship.
London Royals | Current Record: 5-5 | Playoff Probability: 65% | Average Number of Wins: 6.6Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - at Dallas
Week 12 - vs Tijuana
Week 13 - at Norfolk
Week 14 - vs Kansas City
My Take
Similar to Kansas City the simulation liked London to make the playoffs by just squeaking in over Portland. London has also had a similar season to with 3 of their 5 losses being by a touchdown or less. I think London loses a trap game at Dallas in Week 11 as they are looking ahead to Tijuana and Norfolk. They lose both of those games as well but win a meaningless game against Kansas City in Week 14 to finish the season 6-8.
Minnesota Grey Ducks | Current Record: 4-6 | Playoff Probability: 0% | Average Number of Wins: 5.2Remaining Schedule
Week 11 - at Tijuana
Week 12 - vs Dallas
Week 13 - at Kansas City
Week 14 - at Myrtle Beach
My Take
Minnesota is only a game back of the playoffs as of Week 10 but the simulation did not have make the playoffs in one simulation. Minnesota has a BRUTAL schedule to finish up the season with 3 road games against really good opponents. I think they lose all 3 road games and are able to beat Dallas at home. Minnesota has played well the last couple weeks but I don't see them keeping up that pace and they finish up the season 5-9 and join Dallas with a Top 2 pick in the Season 25 DSFL Draft.
Final Thoughts
The simulator really loved Tijuana and I have to agree with it on that. Tijuana has been consistently good this season and are the best team in the league. I believe they take home the DSFL Championship over Portland and have a lot of rookies taken in the first two rounds of the DSFL draft.
RE: DSFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - BenDover - 09-07-2020
% cant even be 1 so I can post the, "so your saying there's a chance" gif
Good article though!
RE: DSFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - Cody - 09-07-2020
(09-07-2020, 11:03 AM)BenDover Wrote: % cant even be 1 so I can post the, "so your saying there's a chance" gif
Good article though!
Thank you!
I can understand Dallas not getting 1 playoff berth but with Minnesota it was really surprising that they didn't get it at least once but they have a gauntlet to go through.
RE: DSFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - slate - 09-07-2020
This is really cool!
Only question I have is why the conference probabilities don't add up to 200%? 75% Norfolk + 55% Myrtle Beach on top of Tijuana always making it would seem to imply there's some probability of 3 playoff teams in their conference...
RE: DSFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - Cody - 09-07-2020
(09-07-2020, 11:25 AM)slate Wrote: This is really cool!
Only question I have is why the conference probabilities don't add up to 200%? 75% Norfolk + 55% Myrtle Beach on top of Tijuana always making it would seem to imply there's some probability of 3 playoff teams in their conference...
Because I can't type haha went back and looked and it was 25% FIXED!