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*ISFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - WK 15 - Cody - 09-10-2020

We're coming down to the final week of the season and although things are locked up in the NSFC. There is still plenty of things that could happen in the ASFC. 

Here's a look at the current standings after Week 15:

NSFC

Colorad Yeti: 13-2 *CLINCHED
Sarasoata Sailfish: 11-4 *CLINCHED
Chicago Butchers: 7-8 * CLINCHED
Yellowknife Wraiths: 5-10 *ELIMINATED
Baltimore Hawks: 3-12 *ELIMINATED
Philadelphia Liberty: 3-12 *ELIMINATED

ASFC

Orange County Otters: 9-6
New Orleans Second Line: 9-6
Honolulu Hahalua: 8-7
Arizona Outlaws: 8-7
San Jose SaberCats: 8-7
Austin Copperheads: 6-9 *Eliminated

Here is a look at the team results after running numerous simulations and a broad overview of each conference:

Week 14's total will be in parentheses.

NSFC

COL  Colorado Yeti | CLINCHED

SAR Sarasota Sailfish | CLINCHED

CHI Chicago Butchers | CLINCHED

My Take

These are locked up so I'm just going to do a small write up on the teams that are in the playoffs:

Colorado Yeti: They have been on fire and look like they're destined to make it to the Season 24 Ultimus. 
Sarasota Sailfish: The defense hasn't been as dominate as they were the last couple weeks but they should be able to beat Chicago and face Colorado in the Conference Championship.
Chicago Butchers: What a turn around! They were dead in the water midway through the season and managed to garner a playoff berth. Congrats to Chicago!

ASFC

OCO Orange County Otters | Current Record: 9-6 (8-6)| Playoff Probability: 100% (80%) | Average Number of Wins: 9.7 (8.5)

NOLA New Orleans Second Line | Current Record: 9-6 (8-6) | Playoff Probability: 90% (65%) | Average Number of Wins: 9.5 (9)

ARI Arizona Outlaws | Current Record: 8-7 (8-6)| Playoff Probability: 60% (75%) | Average Number of Wins: 8.3 (9.1)

SJS San Jose SaberCats | Current Record: 8-7 (7-7) | Playoff Probability: 35% (15%) | Average Number of Wins: 8.5 (7.95)

HON Honolulu Hahalua | Current Record: 8-7 (8-6) | Playoff Probability: 15% (65%) | Average Number of Wins: 8.2 (9.05)

My Take

Playoffs aren't decided yet in this division. It's really interesting to see what's going to happen between Arizona, San Jose and Honolulu. Honolulu saw their chances freefall by 50% after their loss to Orange County in Week 15. If I had to take a shot at who I think is going to be in the ASFC Playoffs I would go:

#1 Orange County 
#2 New Orleans
#3 San Jose


RE: ISFL - S24 Playoff Probabilities - WK 15 - Faded - 09-10-2020

shame