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*End of Regular Season ISFL Power Rankings & More - Crunk - 09-12-2020

What a season. We've had joy, drama, tears, tantrums... and that was just the forum. The dots have played their little hearts out.

When I started these rankings (as a way to make easy money on the side of a prediction system I was developing) I decided to adhere strictly to my findings, whatever they threw out. Though it has cost me popularity in certain beautiful Pacific islands, I have stuck to this and ranked teams solely from their CRUNC score. That is changing slightly this week - there's no power in failing to reach the postseason.

I'm including a couple of other things in this - I'll be awarding a sim luck grade to each team (the name should be self-explanatory) and I've taken the liberty of predicting the playoffs, giving the percentage chances for each team to win in each round - if they get there.

Basically, there's more stuff to get mad at in this one, if that's your thing.

As always, you're welcome. Let's go...


1) COL Colorado Yeti (NSFC 1 Seed - 14-2, 7-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 100.1)

Luck Grade: B

I would have expected Colorado to have a couple less wins than this, but good teams tend to make their own luck.

Chance to win: Wildcard N/A - Conference 75.5% - Ultimus 60.1%

The best team in the league have home field advantage through the playoffs, as this whole situation couldn't have lined up better for Colorado. Their most likely opponent in the Ultimus is, bizarrely, the weakest of the three remaining ASFC teams. Bet on the Yeti.

2) OCO Orange County Otters (ASFC 2 Seed - 9-7, 7-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 76.9)

Luck Grade: C+

Orange County were the best team in a division where a couple of teams got some insane luck. Their record is pretty much what it should be, though they can consider themselves unfortunate not to get the bye in the wildcard round.

Chance to win: Wildcard 71.3% - Conference 40% - Ultimus 13.1%

The Otters will be favoured in their games up until the Ultimus, should they reach it. Though the Yeti unquestionably deserve the title this season, I couldn't be unhappy if Orange County won out. After a miserable start to the season, a title to finish Franklin Armstrong's career would be a hell of a story.

3) SAR Sarasota Sailfish (NSFC 2 Seed - 12-4, 5-3 Home; CRUNC Rating 66.6)

Luck Grade: B+

Of all the teams in the league, Sarasota have the most wins compared to what I would expect, but they are unquestionably a good team, and - again - good teams tend to make their own luck in this respect. They deserve the 2 seed in the NSFC.

Chance to win: Wildcard 70% - Conference 18.2% - Ultimus 11.8%

Look at the dropoff between those numbers. I expect Sarasota to reach the divisional championship game, but the Yeti are a very tough opponent on the road. If they make the Ultimus, they will be favourites for the game. When you remember that this team is not yet three seasons old, that is really impressive.

4) NOLA New Orleans Second Line (ASFC 3 Seed - 9-7, 6-2 Home; CRUNC Rating 59.8)

Luck Grade: C

Another team in the weirdly lucky ASFC, NOLA managed exactly the record that they should have. I'd like to think this is due to their defensive, run-heavy, slow style of play leading to low-variance outcomes, but it probably isn't. They could have had the 1 or 2 seed easily.

Chance to win: Wildcard 28.7% - Conference 14.3% - Ultimus 3.8%

The 3 seed really hurts a Second Line squad that I rate as the fourth-best team in the league. If they are winning this season, they are doing it the hard way. They have a better chance at winning the Ultimus than you do of winning on a single number on a roulette wheel - it's perfectly plausible, but I'm not picking them.

5) CHI Chicago Butchers (NSFC 3 Seed - 7-9, 4-4 Home; CRUNC Rating 36.0)

Luck Grade: C+

Chicago... in the playoffs? They must have got super lucky... Well, yes and no. The Butchers' record is completely deserved, and 7-9 is an accurate reflection of a team that is finally beginning to show real improvement. The luck they had was indirect, in that Yellowknife should probably have their playoff spot. Chicago are happy to be here, and it's hard to say they are totally undeserving.

Chance to win: Wildcard 30% - Conference 6.3% - Ultimus 2%

With one of my GMs on their roster and their brilliant Chicago Football Team tweet fresh in my mind, I have a bit of a soft spot for Chicago, so I'll leave it at this - good luck.

6) SJS San Jose SaberCats (ASFC 1 Seed - 9-7, 5-3 Home; CRUNC Rating 25.0)

Luck Grade: A+

I spent most of the season saying that teams were lucky and unlucky, because tracking that is crucial to understanding the teams' real ability. San Jose totally flew under my radar for most of the season. At one point I wrote:
"Long may Honolulu ride a tsunami of luck large enough to destroy Oahu."
Well, that big old wave narrowly missed Hawaii, made landfall in Northern California and now Silicon Valley is swimming in luck - and it came at exactly the right time. San Jose having the 1 seed in the ASFC is absolutely incredible.

Chance to win: Wildcard N/A - Conference 45.7% - Ultimus 9.1%

So, yeah. I rate San Jose as the second worst team in the league, and they are currently also my favourite to win the ASFC Championship game. Isn't probability great? Austin and Arizona will be looking on enviously, and that's fair enough. San Jose are only two wins away, and while I feel they are the least deserving of the six remaining teams, absolutely no part of me will be surprised if we are welcomed by a SaberCats banner through Season 25.

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7) AUS Austin Copperheads (7-9, 5-3 Home; CRUNC Rating 56.6)

Luck Grade: D

Austin should really be in the playoffs. They were the fifth-best team in the league and third best in the ASFC this season. They had some bad luck, and a couple of other teams in the division got a lot of it. The Austin management will be acutely aware of this.

Reasons to be positive:

Austin have a great young core, and though they've traded a lot of picks in a large Season 25 draft to assemble it, they are already a good team. They should be back in the playoff picture very soon.

8) YKW Yellowknife Wraiths (6-10, 2-6 Home; CRUNC Rating 54.7)

Luck Grade: D-

Yellowknife should also be in the playoffs. They were the sixth-best team in the league and third best in the NSFC this season. They really should have been an 8 or 9 win team. The absence of Hanyadi for the run-in definitely hurt them, but not as much as you might think looking at their record.

Reasons to be positive:

Put simply, Yellowknife are still a good team. They knew this season was going to be tough because of their losses last offseason, and were still competitive. Further to that, they just traded a young quarterback that they weren't going to need any time soon for an impressive haul of draft picks. Moving up in rounds 1, 2 and 4 as well as gaining a third is really, really nice for them in a Reddit draft class. They should be able to turn this deal into a slew of rookie talent.

9) ARI Arizona Outlaws (9-7, 7-1 Home; CRUNC Rating 46.9)

Luck Grade: C-

Arizona ended up with pretty much the record they should have. A couple of ASFC teams being really lucky hurt them, they could easily have made the playoffs otherwise. This grade is moved down a bit because they missed the postseason with 9 wins. Ouch.

Reasons to be positive:

Most of Arizona's roster is years away from regression and they, overall, are an improving team. Jay Cue should remain close to his peak for the next couple of seasons. They should be fine in the short term.

10) PHI Philadelphia Liberty (3-13, 2-6 Home; CRUNC Rating 34.7)

Luck Grade: F

Philly aren't a good team, but they didn't deserve this. While the worse teams get worse luck in general, they are still better than their record.

Reasons to be positive:

Not going to lie, I am struggling slightly here. Philly have a decent young defensive core, but their roster isn't the most promising overall. Expansion came at the wrong time for them, robbing them of the first overall pick. They do, however, still have a high pick and the chance to add some really talented players/users in the forthcoming draft. If they want to be competitive before Brock Phoenix retires they will need some big trades or free agency pickups.

11) BAL Baltimore Hawks (3-13, 3-5 Home; CRUNC Rating 32.9)

Luck Grade: F-

Baltimore were every bit as unlucky in the second half of the season as Philly were in the first half. Losing two of their wide receivers to the expansion process moves this grade down below an F. It really sucked to be Baltimore this season.

Reasons to be positive:

Baltimore are another team with a decent core of players that are years away from regression. Chika is approaching her prime, so Baltimore should be able to compete soon if they make the right roster moves.

12) HON Honolulu Hahalua (8-8, 5-3 Home; CRUNC Rating 9.8)

Luck Grade: A-

Four weeks ago I would have bet anything on this being an A+. Honolulu won a bunch of games they really shouldn't have. It's down to an A- because their luck ran out in the final stretch. 1-3 was probably the record they should have had in the last four weeks, but early season Honolulu goes 3-1 there against heavy odds. Though they still had a better record than my numbers showed, the way it happened was heartbreaking for them.

Reasons to be positive:

It doesn't show that strongly in my numbers (as my rating is an unweighted average over the whole season) but Honolulu really did improve over the weeks. They had their best performance of the season in Week 14, as they were the most dominant team in the league that week. They were easily the better team against the SaberCats, who ended up with the 1 seed - go figure. Their core is young, earning nicely and improving. If they can hit with their draft picks this year - and there's no reason why they shouldn't - they'll be good within a few seasons.

Now I've got my actual opinions of Honolulu out of the way, I feel obliged to put some kind of lighthearted trolling in this bit. Skip Bayless does it for a living, and everyone loves him - right? Here we go.

An Appeal to the ISFL Head Office

Dear HO,

I know you'll be super happy that the player base has expanded to the point that league expansion was needed. While you celebrate, please don't forget the less fortunate in our community. Putting ISFL teams in New York and Berlin is commendable, but they really need a proper one in Honolulu.

So, I ask you, while it's unlikely that the Hahalua will be overly troubled by the expansion draft, why not turn it into a positive for them, and let them pick players along with the Silverbacks and Fire Salamanders?

If not for them, do it for me. I'm considering publishing these rankings next season, and I'm sick of hiding every time I hear a ukulule. Please?

Much love,

Crunk

RE: End of Regular Season ISFL Power Rankings & More - Faded - 09-12-2020

i cant tell if i should be offended or not

RE: End of Regular Season ISFL Power Rankings & More - Mooty99 - 09-13-2020

(09-12-2020, 11:54 AM)Crunk Wrote:
They had some bad luck, and a couple of other teams in the division got a lot of it. The Austin management will be acutely aware of this.

We are very aware. Must be saving up our sim luck for another season I guess.