![[DEV] ISFL Forums](http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/images/emerald/logo.png "[DEV] ISFL Forums"){kind=logo}
+- [DEV] ISFL Forums (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums)
+-- Forum: Community (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *Adam's Mega Expansion Draft Coverage Part 4: The Pushovers Won't Fall Down (/showthread.php?tid=25645)
*Adam's Mega Expansion Draft Coverage Part 4: The Pushovers Won't Fall Down - AdamS - 09-13-2020
Finally we come to the ASFC’s lower decks. And yes I know New Orleans you made the playoffs. So sit down and let them have this because I’m giving it to them. Here we have three teams who are competitive. This entire conference is competitive. The difference between being the last place team and not just making the playoffs but having home field advantage is two late game touchdowns (one in Overtime). Everything about this conference was a knife fight in a phonebooth from start to finish. And these are the team that ended up bloodiest (give or take an index quirk). And Nola? Look are where you are. Look at where you started. You’re lucky to be alive right now. Remember that.
New Orleans Second Line Ben Slothlisberger QB S22 754 TPE
Marcella Toriki RB S18 1346 TPE (20% Regression incoming)
Austin McCormick TE S19 1126 TPE
Magnus Rikiya DT S22 758 TPE
LiterallyJust A. Hexagon S S23 575 TPE
David Rector CB S18 1392 TPE (20% Regression incoming)
Andrew Witten CB S22 759 TPE
Mason Blaylock S S19 1198 TPE
Top 5 Unprotected:
Brock Boidenhamer WR S23 431 TPE
Sean Snyder WR S22 562 TPE
Hank Steel DT S22 558 TPE
Ed Barker WR S21 798 TPE
Givussafare Rubbe OL S18 1284 TPE (20% Regression incoming)
The Facts:
The Second Line finished the season with a record of 9-7 and made the playoffs where they will go on the road to Orange County in the Wild Card Round. They do not own their 3rd round pick (Honolulu) but retain the others. They can lose up to two players in this expansion draft.
The Analysis:
New Orleans feels like a team on the downswing. And yes, I wrote this even before they barely held onto a playoff spot. Now, there are a couple reasons this could be. The first is that they’re this close to losing a lot of their big hitters to old age and I’m not sure how ready the replacements are. I’m definitely not sure how ready the replacements of the replacements are to step into those major support roles either. The second is that this is like the 10th team I’ve researched so I got to see the firepower a lot of other teams are stocking and it’s affecting my view. Yet the same facts remain. The depth of the bench is just okay to my eyes. The QB is about to hit his prime and his 6-7 year window looks like it’s gonna be a struggle for the first few years. Sometimes build times get awkward. As the great philosopher P!nk said, sometimes it be’s like that. With this roster and the way things look around the league, I’d say that right now they don’t really have a window. And they’re gonna lose two players here. In fact, let’s get into that.
This is a tricky group of unprotected players considering that it contains like..the team’s entire receiving corp. It’s going to be very tricky for them to avoid losing any of their WRs. In fact they gotta hope that a team decides it wants to ride out the last 4-5 seasons of Rubbe’s career. Which would not be a bad move at all for an expansion team. The thing about OL being effective at sub 300 levels is that their longevity is through the roof. And Rubbe is now THE enthusiastic champion of the OL cause. Sure, he butted his way in and declared it his victory like the US in WW1. But at the end of the day, he backed up his self given crown and he put the fucking effort in and the position is blossoming. Lots of people are in position to take advantage of the work of others. He actually took what people like myself, Juosu, Steg, Beaver, and Peyton did and built on it, often concurrently to our efforts, and in many cases far outpaced us. A team can greatly benefit from his presence if he puts ¼ of the effort into his ISFL team that he does into his positional group. And he will. And I think if a team doesn’t pick him first, he becomes the next protected player for the same reasons. I think Nola is trying to juggle all their older names and is gambling that a team won’t pick an aging OL player first. I think they should be incorrect. That said...there’s every chance in the world that they read it right and that he doesn’t get snatched up. Or that he makes himself purposely unpalatable. That’s 100% a move in his arsenal (then again, I think shitting on the lawns of people he dislikes is also in his arsenal...or I just gave him the idea). I miss the NSHL though. If he is picked, Barker has to be the next protection. He’s the biggest target and is signed for several more seasons. If an expansion doesn't pick Rubbe, they should logically take Barker. But honestly I’m not sure why you would between the two. Nothing against him, it’s just that there are more WR options in this expansion draft. Many of whom are younger. The 2nd pick is a tossup between the three remaining players. Steel is an active player at the DL and the two young WRs both have potential. Whoever is available, grab them second. They can be your player when there’s reckoning to be reckoned.
Overall though, this team is in a precarious position in my opinion when a thin bench and aging power players. Starting next seasons they've got 9 million tied up in two old ass running backs (sorry TH/Bex) with no fresh blood incoming as of yet. Add to that the fact that the team doesn’t have anyone stashed who can fill the WR role they’re likely to lose at least one of here and you’re looking at trouble. And they’re a little short on big draft power right now in those all important first 4 rounds. I think that Nola will field a clearly worse team next season. But at least there’s always $300 legal parades.
Honolulu Hahalua Keʻokeʻo Kāne-Maikaʻi RB S22 708 TPE
Shawn Dawkins S S22 753 TPE
Luke Skywalker QB S22 694 TPE
Jim Waters CB S22 652 TPE
Heinrich Kackpoo LB S23 628 TPE
Jed Podolak WR S19 955 TPE
Nicholas Ayers RB S23 503 TPE
Ray-Ray Jackson CB S23 489 TPE
Top 5 Unprotected:
Bane Kaʻanāʻanā CB S23 483 TPE
Jack Banks LB S22 610 TPE
William Alexander WR S22 594 TPE
Logan Noble Jr. DE S21 594 TPE
Jayson Kearse DE S19 649 TPE
The Facts:
Honolulu finished 8-8 and earned the #7 pick. They don’t have their 3rd round pick (Chicago) but do have Chicago’s 2nd round and Nola’s 3rd round picks. They can lose two players in the expansion draft.
The Analysis:
The first thing you gotta know is that Honolulu has a ton of stashed talent in the DSFL. Well okay, right now they’re probably more focused on the heartbreaking end to their season. But..going forward, they could legit call up 4 people to the main roster this offseason. Also..jesus would you look a this fucking roster of protections? This team is a potential 13 win monster for the next several seasons that hasn’t even hit it’s prime yet. This isn’t even their final form. Because not only are they just about to hit their prime, the oldest few players on the team don’t even start regressing til after next season. They’re plugged in at every level to the point that they may actually need to trade some talent. This is the team best suited to run the table for the next several years. Whatever talent they lose here will be replaced in a heartbeat and they likely won't even notice.
So let’s discuss the little ping noises Honolulu is gonna hear bounce off their train as it rumbles down the tracks. I’m not really sure who teams should take first. Banks and Alexander are slower earners. Bane is a flight risk at all times. The DE’s are on the older side. Every one of these choices has its risks. And on the other hand, every single one has its upside. Bane is young at an important position. Alexander can be an important complementary piece at WR. Banks can clog up your WLB slot. DE’s are DE’s. So it’s really about what each expansion team needs to grab to help fill up their roster after they grab some other teams’ sexier castoffs. I’m going to have to presume that whoever gets picked, the best remaining DE gets protected. And then the other expansion team gets to sit back and wait to see what happens. So as difficult as it may be to decide who goes first, whoever goes 2nd will be a pain in the ass to figure out. We’ll see how that one works out in Part 5.
In the meantime what the fuck else can be said about this team? What comes next? They’ve been freed of all expansion shackles. They have virtually no holes. There’s not much to make fun of. I did learn in the prospect channel that a Manta Ray is a fish and related to some sharks. So there’s that at least. What can I say except you’re welcome?
Austin Copperheads Eddie Jeeta WR S22 765 TPE
Videl-San WR S23 594 TPE
Colt Mendoza CB S22 717 TPE
Troen Egghands DE S22 762 TPE
Tyler Montain DT S23 653 TPE
Slinky Claxton DE S22 660 TPE
Griffin Porter LB S23 542 TPE
Carolinabbq IsBest DE S20 851 TPE (Previously Kyle Idlewyld)
Top 5 Unprotected:
Kichwa Jones RB S22 545 TPE
Tomage McGullager CB S23 380 TPE
Net Gaines WR S18 921 TPE (20% Regression incoming)
Easton Cole QB S16 1069 TPE (30% Regression incoming)
Dermot Lavelle Jr. CB S16 1137 TPE (30% Regression incoming)
The Facts:
Austin finished at the bottom of the ASFC at 7-9. The #6 overall pick they earned with that finish will go to Baltimore. Austin also does not own it’s 3rd round pick (Philadelphia does) but does own Baltimore’s 4th round. Austin can lose up to two players in the expansion draft.
The Analysis:
This is a weird one for oh so many reasons and the fact that it is what it is and I am who I am is like the least weird. Okay, let’s start with a little disclaimer. Austin will tell you they should’ve been at least a 10 win team this season, if not better. The sim was not kind to Austin at all. Conference alignment was also not kind, as Austin finished behind 5 teams that finished .500 or better. Even the last 3 games of the season saw them take on all three ASFC playoff teams and go 2-1. Now with the season over, Austin is losing 5 starters to retirement. Including myself for anyone who does not know that. Okay, buckle up. Neither GM has protected themself in this expansion draft. One is because he’s among the retired (and is the team’s next QB). The other is the team’s head GM and current QB who has seemingly decided that neither expansion team is gonna try to draft him. The potential for chaos is so ripe and it would be totally funny if someone called that bluff but also he’s my friend AND he grades these so I’m just gonna say “don’t do that” to the expansion teams. Still though. Shenanigans aside, what you have here is a team who’s window has basically closed and is trying to get to its next window quickly. They’ve got more stashed and undraftable talent than they do worthwhile talent to take in expansion. As you can see it’s pretty slim pickings for the hungry expansion teams.
So what’s gonna happen? That’s a good question. Austin isn’t gonna be a team that gets picked from for a bit I think as teams with a lot more quality available will get targeted first. And let’s be honest. The three regression age players are here because Austin has essentially no one else to take thanks to mass retirement, age, and protections. Probably also at least some degree of planning. I don’t want to make it sound like the team just stumbled blindly through the dark stabbing at random shit. Unlike the sim. As an expansion team you really don’t wanna take Dermot, though I suspect he’d have no issues as long as his demands are met. We talked about Joe. And my buddy Net just never quite reached that mountaintop of TPE to fight regression for more than about 2 seasons. Not that he needed to with his career, which is quite nice. So really the question is do you want the young CB or the young RB? Whichever one gets picked, the other likely gets protected. Austin seems to be banking on the idea that maybe expansion teams won’t even pick both players. If they decide that a team actually stealing Dermot is a threat, they’ll protect him instead. This one can actually go a lot of ways for how limited it is.
By the way, this feels like a pertinent time to address those of you who may be rolling their eyes now and say that I’m not in this War Room any longer. The bastards kicked me out. After I said it was probably time to kick me out. And tearfully saying goodbye. Can you believe that shit? Either way I’m not actually privy to Austin’s decision making and haven’t been for a minute. So I’m really not 100% sure what the plans are. Plus with Austin, fluid planning has always been the MO. Right now they’ve certainly been fluid. The window is officially closed on the Cole chapter of the team and they’re gearing up for the Daytona era. That may be hard to hear for some folks, but it’s patently true. We are now officially in the time where the old guard just isn’t quite at the level anymore and the new guard still needs a season or so. The team has already sold significant draft capital to get jump on it and only time will tell how quickly they get back to the mountaintop after coming up short in the Ultimus last season and winning it all in S20. Right now they’re just outgunned, outmanned…….outnumbered, outplanned. There will however not be an all out stand. They’re just gonna quietly suck next season (unless the sim decides to go crazy in the opposite direction and the team wins a crazy unlikely Ultimus out of nowhere) and then be back on the upward trajectory in S26. Houses and stuff.
And there it is. None of these teams is by any means out of the fight. I can’t imagine this gets easier next season for any of them, no matter where each squad is at in it’s personal development. In fact, it really says a lot that the team I ended up being the hardest on is Philly and they have SOME pieces. It’s just that after comparing them to everyone else, they’re not just incomplete but way behind the 8 Ball. And right now every team seems like a pirate mob, swinging over the ships, 17 guns in hand and knife in their teeth and hair on fire. Because there are a lot of scary and dangerous rosters out there. This is going to be an absolute uphill climb for everyone. Including the people at the top. For as good a position as any team is in, you don’t have to glance far over your shoulder to see 2-3 hungry challengers right on your heels. And right now, in that weird pause before playoffs start, we’re in the eye of the hurricane. And it’s quiet. For just a moment. But oh boy is this about to go full on chaos personified in this league. This is fucking exciting. And I haven’t even gotten to the expansion teams yet.
Code:
2685 wordsRE: Adam's Mega Expansion Draft Coverage Part 4: The Pushovers Won't Fall Down - Baron1898 - 09-14-2020
It’s not like I really want to be taken in expansion anyway but wow the kicker disrespect
RE: Adam's Mega Expansion Draft Coverage Part 4: The Pushovers Won't Fall Down - .simo - 09-14-2020
(09-14-2020, 08:22 AM)Baron1898 Wrote: It’s not like I really want to be taken in expansion anyway but wow the kicker disrespect
They hate us cause they ain't us.
RE: Adam's Mega Expansion Draft Coverage Part 4: The Pushovers Won't Fall Down - AdamS - 09-14-2020
to be fair..its not MY disrespect..I love kickers. I took the legend Crisco in my expansion draft.
The sim though