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*Dotts Rarity Explored - Cheech65 - 11-05-2020

I have never posted about Dotts cards before. I know pack openings were a big thing when Dotts first launched, but that really wasn't for me. But you know what was? Spending all my money on trading cards. From the start, I've been buying packs every day. And I honestly think that I've bought a pack every single day they have been available, although don't quote me on it. And I did it all through manual requests in the daily threads. It wasn't until the recent price cut that I decided to just get a subscription.

Su, I  figured I'd look into my collection and see how well I've done, statistically. Dotts launched officially just over 2 months ago, on September 2nd. Including today, November 5th, that makes 65 packs for purchase, and if I'm not mistaken, there have also been 3 free packs up for claim. In that time, I missed purchases on 9/9, 9/13, 9/20, 9/26, and 9/27. So, 60 packs plus the 3 free claims I've made. That brings my grand total potential to: 63 packs and therefore 378 cards. And for fun, that means I've spent whopping $25,200,000 on personal cards. Wow. What have I done?

Anyway, the current breakdown of card rarity is as follows:
[Image: unknown.png]

Of my 378 cards, I statistically could have:
  • 74.1 -> 74 Backups
  • 75.6 -> 76 Starters
  • 37.8 -> 38 Stars
  • 25.3 -> 26 All-Pros
  • 18.9 -> 19 Legends
  • 12.5 -> 13 Awards Series
  • 2.7 -> 3 Hall of Fame Series
  • 12.5 -> 13 Ultimus Champion Series
  • 15.1 -> 15 Expansion Holographic Series
Granted, these are not going to be accurate. I bought Ultimus Week packs that have boosted the chances for rarer cards, and expansion cards are the newest series. But, I don't think it's an unfair benchmark to set.

But I think we all know where this is going. There is no way in hell I have 378 cards sitting in my collection. I have definitely drawn many, many duplicates, which in turn do not count on their own. And that's fine with me. I know I don't want to flip through the 6 or 7 Alfredo Crisco cards I've drawn, no offense.

So, what do I actually have? Currently in my collection there are:
  • 128 Backups
  • 67 Starters
  • 44 Stars
  • 22 All-Pros
  • 6 Legends
  • 7 Awards Series
  • 1 Hall of Fame Series
  • 1 Ultimus Champion Series
  • 1 Expansion Holographic Series
But also:
  • 5 Team Series
  • 1 Rookie Series
Per those last 2 card series, it's unclear what their rarity is exactly, but I think they are comparable to All-Pros and Expansion cards, respectively.

In summary, of the 378 cards I've bought, I've pulled 283 unique cards. That means I've also pulled 95 duplicate cards (25.1%). Of the unique cards I do have, the breakdown is:
  • Backups (128/283) = 45.2%
  • Starters (67/283) = 23.7%
  • Stars (44/283) = 15.5%
  • All-Pros (22/283) = 7.8%
  • Legends (6/283) = 2.1%
  • Awards (7/283) = 2.5 %
  • Hall of Fame (1/283) = 0.35%
  • Ultimus Champion (1/283) = 0.35%
  • Expansion Holographic (1/283) = 0.35%
  • Team (5/283) = 1.8%
  • Rookie (1/283) = 0.35%
So it would seem that Backups are more common than expected, Starters are less; Stars, All-Pros, and Hall of Famers are about the same; and the rest of the series are more much rare. The biggest difference in my eyes is the Ultimus cards, which have been around since the Dotts launch. And yet, I've only managed to pull 1 of them. I'm not complaining or anything, but I felt like people would be interested to see what the actual breakdown of card draws is, rather than the input odds. I'm still going to buy cards, mostly because by some miracle, I've yet to draw even 1 of my own cards. I'm in the system 3 different times but still to no avail. Trading when?

RE: Dotts Rarity Explored - mithrandir - 11-05-2020

It looks to me that your backup cards are right on the money. 45.2% of your unique cards are backups, and 45.31% of all cards pulled are backups.

RE: Dotts Rarity Explored - Cheech65 - 11-05-2020

(11-05-2020, 01:02 PM)mithrandir Wrote: It looks to me that your backup cards are right on the money. 45.2% of your unique cards are backups, and 45.31% of all cards pulled are backups.
Yeah looking at it now I was not paying proper attention when writing up my conclusion.