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+---- Thread: *Early Season Power Rankings (/showthread.php?tid=29771)
*Early Season Power Rankings - Ephenssta - 02-02-2021
We are now three weeks into the new sim and that means I feel I have enough here for another little power rankings article. Unlike going in order from worst to best across the league as a whole like I did last time, I will be going division by division and then making some brief summary comments about the division as a whole. Feedback is always welcome. Enjoy!
1. Chicago has come out of the gate very strong. They are one of only two undefeated teams, have allowed the second fewest points against in the entire league, and have scored the most points in the league with 108 points scored over three games. That comes out to an average of 36 points per game on offense while allowing only 17. That is a pretty good sign moving forward and puts them atop the first round of power rankings for the new season. With 7.2 Power Points, they sit atop both the league and division standings after week three. The Butchers will face a big challenge next week when they travel to face Sarasota. I would consider this their biggest test except that they have already hosted the Wraiths and beating off the defending champs in week one is no small feat. Still, Sarasota has been a strong team since their introduction to the league and will look to give Chicago a good test. Should they continue this trend, the Butchers seem primed to have a similar season to the Wraiths last season.
2. Speaking of the Sailfish, they come in at second in the NSFC with 2.2 Power Points. This is a pretty big gap between first and second in the division. Two teams from the ASFC sit between the Butchers and the Sailfish in the overall standings. Sarasota has been strong on offense, posting 89 points on offense, which is good for second in the league overall (although a few teams are sitting close behind at 85 in the ASFC…), but their defense has struggled, allowing 82 points. They also dropped a game on the road to Yellowknife, who Chicago beat at home. The Sailfish have also managed to win a game on the road in Colorado, an impressive feat considering how strong the yeti were at home last season. They will face a significant test when they host the Butchers in week 4, which should be an interesting game as it pits the top two teams in the division standings against one another. Honestly, given the way the Sailfish have performed on defense, I do not see them being able to stop the Butchers’ offense. This one will probably be a shootout, but I expect to see the Butchers come away on top.
3. Third place belongs to the defending champs. Defending your championship is always a tough task and the Wraiths have certainly not gotten off to the strongest of starts. That said, they come in with 2.1 power points, only .1 behind the Sailfish. Yellowknife has experienced similar struggles to Sarasota. They have a relatively high scoring offense, but struggle a little more on defense. They have 76 points on offense and 76 allowed on defense. The Wraiths lost their first game against Chicago, but they will certainly be looking to get revenge when they play again on their home field in week 11. Their two wins have come against Sarasota and my own Yeti. They will face off against a Berlin team that has dropped two games early. The game strikes me as one that the Wraiths are likely to win on their home field, but one that is nevertheless important as starting off 2-2 is not a good way to begin your title defense.
4. Fourth in the division belongs to my Yeti. The start of the season certainly has not been too kind to us. With two home losses, the Yeti drop to -0.7 Power Points and would be first out of the playoff picture if the season were to end today. Caliban leads the league in interceptions (tied with 5) and has one of the lowest passer ratings in the league. The Yeti have already dropped games to Sarasota and Yellowknife, two likely playoff contenders. It seems likely that we will be missing the playoffs again, but it is obviously far too early to say anything conclusively. Our only win came in blowout fashion on the road against Berlin. It seems the Yeti have flipped the script from last season. A year ago, we found ourselves dominant at home but unable to win on the road. We have already lost more games at home than we did in the entirety of last season. In any case, it seems the team will continue to try and build around Calliban and look to a brighter future.
5. Fifth in the league belongs to Berlin. Despite a positive point differential, the Fire Salamanders have dropped two games at home, just like the Yeti. Coming in at -1.2 Power Points, they are fifth in the division and tenth in the league as a whole. They have the fewest points scored on offense with only 50 through three games, but they have also been the toughest on defense and allowed only 47 through those three games. They have already been tested by Baltimore, Colorado, and Arizona. They handily won on the road at Baltimore before dropping consecutive home games. Next, they face a Yellowknife team on the road and will likely drop to a dismal 1-3. Unfortunately for them, I do not see a desperate Yellowknife team losing this one.
6. Sixth place belongs to my former team: The Philadelphia Liberty. The Liberty have gone through tough times lately and the new GM duo looks to make a statement in the new sim. Unfortunately, the Liberty are still in rebuild mode and their on-field performance is less than stellar. Their offense has been competitive, scoring 74 points. Their defense has been better only than Baltimore, though. The team started the season by beating Honolulu by a field goal before dropping two one-score games to Chicago and Sarasota. They do, however, have a bright spot coming up on their schedule in the chance to face Baltimore at home. I would look to see the team improve on their -2.5 Power Points with a win that will send Baltimore even further into the depths of last in the division and league.
7. Baltimore is in last place and it is not even close. They appear to be taking the Honolulu route from last season and just tanking their way through the season. Plagued by more scandal at the GM position, they have earned an amazing -11.4 Power Points through three weeks. If they continue at this rate, they will end the season around an amazing -60 Power Points on the season. For context, Honolulu finished last season at -21.7. The track they are on would be three times worse than Honolulu’s season. The Hawks have been awful on both sides of the ball and I do not believe that will change any time soon, even against a weakened Liberty.
It seems like the NSFC can be split into three levels early on. Chicago, Sarasota, and Yellowknife seem to be the early favorites to take the three playoff slots the division has to offer. Berlin and Colorado could potentially make a run at the third place slot should one of the three favorites stumble in the mid or late season. While it seems cruel to put Philadelphia in the same tier as Baltimore, they strike me as the two teams who have virtually no shot at making a playoff run, even if some of the teams above struggle. Really, though Baltimore appears to be on Honolulu’s path from next season and I fully expect them to be the worst team at the end of this season. Their ongoing GM drama will certainly not help them and the team should be looking to bring in some stability to back up Butters and get them back on the right track.
Now, we move to the ASFC, where there is a surprise at the top.
1. First place in the ASFC belongs to Honolulu, which shocked me after their dismal performance last season. They find themselves second in the league as a whole with 4.1 Power Points, only trailing Chicago. The team has certainly jumped to a strong start, putting out good showings on both sides of the ball. In fact, they lead the ASFC in points allowed on defense and have already won an away game on the young season. After losing their first game on the road to Philadelphia, I thought we would be seeing another cellar-dwelling performance out of the Hahalua. However, they followed the early disappointment with back to back wins @NOLA and at home against OCO, two teams that I would have never expected them to win against. Riding those strong wins, though, the Hahalua see themselves at the top of the ASFC and looking to carry the momentum on the road against San Jose next on Wednesday.
2. Second belongs to New York. The Silverbacks looked impressive last season and managed to sneak into the number one seed during all the chaos in the ASFC. The Silverbacks come in at 3.7 Power Points, placing them at second in the division and third in the league. Powered by a strong offense, New York has won each of their first three seasons, including an impressive road win against the Otters. Should they keep this up, the Silverbacks seem to be a very strong contender for a top seed in the ASFC playoff picture. They are definitely a team that watch that may have even been slightly underrated as people like me chalked their strong performance last season to luck. They have suggested early, though, that they have the skill to continue their winning ways and make a splash.
3. After a noticeable drop in Power Points, New Orleans comes in at third with a score of 1.6. The SecondLine have struggled in the early season, dropping games against New York and Honolulu before managing to dominate on the road against San Jose. That dominant win launched their point differential back into the positives and pushed them up to third in the division in the power rankings despite their two losses. If anyone knows a good way to get strength of schedule into power rankings, I’d love to hear it! NOLA looks to win their second in a row when they host Orange County. This game should be an interesting one as both teams have struggled early and will likely be desperately searching for a win to boost their ranking in the division and avoid the risk of falling even more behind early. In any case, that should be a good game to watch on Wednesday evening.
4. If the playoff picture was determined by my power rankings instead of the sim, Arizona would be the first team out. With a home loss, an away win, and a tight point differential, the Outlaws show with .7 Power Points, bringing them in at fourth in the division and seventh in the league as a whole. Their defense hasn’t been bad, allowing only 64 points through the first three games. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into wins. They lost their season opener at home to the Sabercats before losing a heartbreaker to Austin on the road. Despite being in the top half in both points scored and points allowed, they are quickly dropping in the standings and will need to turn things around quickly if they want a chance at sneaking into the playoffs. That will be a tough challenge, though as they face off against New York next. Though they have the advantage of the home field, New York certainly appears to be the stronger team.
5. San Jose slots into fifth place in the ASFC and 9th in the league as a whole with the first negative score in the conference. They come out of week 3 with -0.9 Power Points. After allowing the second most points on defense in the entire league, second only to Baltimore. While their offense has been strong, you simply cannot win many games when you are allowing over 30 points a game on average. In fact, two of their games have featured an opponent scoring more than 40 points. They managed to win one of those, though I am beginning to wonder whether beating Baltimore should even be counted as a win. The Sabercats will face off next against Honolulu in a game that I think will go a long way to telling us just how good Honolulu actually is.
6. We finally stumble across the Otters in sixth place. They have gotten off to a poor start and come in with -2.4 Power Points, narrowly avoiding the shame of coming last in the conference. The offense has struggled to put up points and the defense has been average so far this season for the Otters. After winning their first game against Austin, they dropped two in a row including an embarrassing loss on the road in Honolulu. The loss at Honolulu was the first game in a long road stretch that will see them facing off against New Orleans and Sarasota before finally returning home. The early season looks rough for the Otters and it seems like the new sim may finally be the thing that knocks them out of the playoff picture.
7. Last place in the division and second to last in the league belongs to Austin. The team from my home state comes in with -2.6 Power Points, only .2 behind OCO’s tally and an escape from last place. Austin has been outscored by about 25 points across the three competitions. At 1-2, they sit at fourth on the table in the index, but the power rankings were not kind to them. They opened the season by giving OCO their only win before defeating the outlaws, then promptly allowing 44 to NYS in their most recent loss. They will travel to Colorado on Wednesday in a game that I badly hope they will lose, since my Yeti desperately need a win.
The ASFC shapes up relatively different to the NSFC. There is no team that already looks to be running away with the league, though HON and NYS certainly have already separated themselves a bit from the rest of the pack. NOLA, ARI, and SJS are all within a few points of each other, though, and should form a more compelling and competitive middle tier than the one we see in the NSFC. OCO and Austin are the cellar dwellers for now, but I still do not know what to make of this OCO team. I certainly do not feel they are as bad as their early showings indicate, but they may also not be anything better than a mid tier team right now. It will certainly be interesting to see whether they can right the ship during the season or whether they will succumb to their poor start and finish in the middle of the pack or worse.
RE: Early Season Power Rankings - WildfireMicro - 02-02-2021
Philly may not be winning that much but I think we are on the right track
RE: Early Season Power Rankings - Raven - 02-02-2021
"7. Baltimore is in last place and it is not even close. They appear to be taking the Honolulu route from last season and just tanking their way through the season."
haha yea tanking, thats totally what we were planning on doing
RE: Early Season Power Rankings - Hallmonitor_20 - 02-02-2021
(02-02-2021, 02:48 PM)Raven Wrote: "7. Baltimore is in last place and it is not even close. They appear to be taking the Honolulu route from last season and just tanking their way through the season."You made it look cool though
haha yea tanking, thats totally what we were planning on doing
RE: Early Season Power Rankings - siddhus - 02-02-2021
:shock:
RE: Early Season Power Rankings - Bayley - 02-03-2021
Wait, no no no no, Chicago sux lmap WHERE IS THIS?
good read @Ephenssta!!
RE: Early Season Power Rankings - Ephenssta - 02-03-2021
(02-02-2021, 02:22 PM)WildfireMicro Wrote: Philly may not be winning that much but I think we are on the right track
I totally agree. It just takes time to get a team back on the right track, but Philly seems to be making the right steps.
RE: Early Season Power Rankings - SomeSay... - 02-04-2021
And they say defense wins championships. HA!