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+---- Thread: *Running Back Success Rate: Week 7 (/showthread.php?tid=29900)
*Running Back Success Rate: Week 7 - ztarwarz - 02-11-2021
More games! More craziness! Two massive upsets! Extremely upset players! Arizona somehow not getting sim screwed despite looking like they were about to! And through it all a ton of running backs had good nights for one reason or another. Let's start this off!
New York Silverbacks at Yellowknife Wraiths:
Silverbacks Rushers:
Captain Rogers: 4/14
Ashley Owens: 1/5
Sam Howitzer: 0/1
Wraiths Rushers:
Acura Skyline: 4/10
Jameson Vermillion: 2/5
This is going to be slightly harder than usual as I cannot see the Silverback game's play by play; thanks 82 for giving me the screenshots over discord. Anyways, Rogers started out extremely well, but fell off quickly. His first run was a 33 yard touchdown run to answer Yellowknife's own early score. He'd then get a 3 yard carry on 1st and Goal from the 4, which Owens topped off with their only success of the day, a 1 yard touchdown run. Over half of the Silverbacks' rushing successes came through touchdown runs. Rogers would take advantage of a 1 yard touchdown opportunity set up by the passing attack, and later would get a 4 yard touchdown carry from the 4 to finish off the successes for the day. His day would look alright without 3 runs at the end of the game where he went nowhere. Then again, half of his successes were short yardage anyways. His yards per carry aren't that great, and over half of his yards come from his 33 yard touchdown run; he falls to 1.6 from 3.7 without it. Owens was completely useless minus the 1 yard touchdown carry, getting no more than 2 yards on any run.
Looking at these two rushing attacks, you'd never guess which team blew the other out. It's actually surprising how good Skyline's success rate is considering his 2.5 yards per carry, but one of them was a 3 yard carry. Albeit, that was taking advantage of his own 5 yard carry on 1st and 10 so it's not like it was unfair. I've noticed that both Skyline and Vermillion have been hovering around 40% a lot, and this time they both hit it right on the money. Vermillion is a bit more interesting to talk about, he opened with a short gain, a 5 yard gain on 1st and 10, got a 26 yard touchdown carry for six, and then got 2 yards on 2 carries the rest of the way. More importantly, those 2 yards came on a play where he fumbled the ball away to the Silverbacks and set them up for a touchdown.
Chicago Butchers at Berlin Fire Salamanders:
Butchers Rushers:
Baby Yoda: 7/23
Zed Keppler: 0/4
Julio Tirtawidjaja: 0/2
Salamanders Rushers:
Joseph Petrongolo: 6/11
Terry Yaki: 0/2
And yet, the Wraiths getting blown out by the Silverbacks at home might have only been the 2nd most shocking result for the night, and I think the blame for the Butchers losing stops right at the running backs. Baby Yoda opened with 4 successes on 5 carries. The remaining 18 carries had 3 successes and 16 total yards, under a yard per carry. Yoda did have some bad luck during that period, with a 5 yard carry that just so happened to be on 3rd and 10. His only successes during the last 50 minutes of gametime that took place after that 4/5 section were a 6 yard carry on 1st and 10, followed up by a 2 yard carry on 2nd and 3, and a short gain on 2nd and 1. His yards per carry were 2.2, and he falls to 1.6 if you take out his 16 yard rush. Baby Yoda in part lost this game for the Butchers. Then again, none of the other running backs were that successful during their rushes, either, with a long of 2 between them and a total of 2 yards over 6 carries. The most notable thing about the other running backs is that I think this gives Keppler a pretty significant lead now for the most rushes without any successes.
Petrongolo was a huge part of getting the Salamanders to upset the Butchers, although nowhere near as much as their defense. He started out with a 7 and a 9 yard run, the latter of which helped the Salamanders get into field goal range to score their only points outside the 4th quarter. That was all of his runs in the 1st half, which felt weird considering how well he was doing. He then got 2 unsuccessful runs, followed them up with 3 successful ones, 3 unsuccessful ones, and then finished his day with one more 9 yard carry to get deep into field goal range during their final game winning drive. His yards per carry only fall from 4.7 to 4.3 if you remove his long. I really don't know why they only ran the ball 11 times with him considering how poorly everything else was going. Meanwhile, Terry Yaki got no yards on either of his carries.
Baltimore Hawks at Sarasota Sailfish:
Hawks Rushers:
Mai Fukushu: 2/16
Matthias Hanyadi: 0/3
Chika Fujiwara: 0/1
Sailfish Rushers:
Raphtalia Chan: 7/18
Running Back: 3/15
Sigismund Sternenstaub: 1/2
Mike Boss Jr: 0/1
I've noticed Fukushu goes from great games to awful ones back to back, which is somewhat worrying for consistency or for my fantasy team. Fukushu started out with 2 unsuccessful runs. Then she ran for 4 yards on 1st and 10, 8 yards on 1st and 10 on the next drive, and then would not sniff a success for the remaining 12 runs for her on the night. She only ran for 1.5 yards per carry, and half of her yards came from those 2 successes. Taking both off moves her to under 1 yard per carry, and just removing her long of 8 puts her at 16 yards on 15 carries. This was an awful day of rushing, which means if the pattern continues, she will have around a 50% success rate next week at the Silverbacks. As for the other people running for the Hawks, Hanyadi was pretty poor today with his 1 yard per carry and moved him down to a 50% success rate on the season.
Raphtalia Chan was decent this game on the success rate, at just under 40%. That being said, I'm wondering if she's going to take a bigger hit than anyone else in terms of the Remove Long method, considering she just set a record for a long apparently with a 97 yard rush. She wasn't all that exceptional in any other way, there was no robbery or short yardage success, she didn't have a really long streak of successes or anything like that, she didn't even have an exceptionally long streak of failures. Nah, the most notable things about this are that Chan played the Running Back By Committee role apparently, considering the other 3 rushers got as many carries as she did when combined. Also, her yards per carry falling from the lofty heights of 7.9 to 2.6 by removing a single 97 yard rush. She still had a 6/17 success rate after that, and none of them weren't earned, so that was somewhat interesting. Running Back, meanwhile, I believe just torpedoed his success rate, it might fall below 35% after this game, and it was arguably even WORSE than that. His successes were a 1 yard carry on 2nd and inches, set up by one of Raphtalia Chan's successes on the day, another 1 yard carry on 2nd and inches, set up by Sigismund Sternenstaub's lone successful rush so far on the season, and a 5 yard carry on 4th and 2, set up by a 1 yard carry on 3rd and 4. His ONLY REALLY LEGITIMATE SUCCESS was a make up for a failure of his. He almost inarguably deserves worse than the 20% success rate he had on the day, maybe as low as 7%. Minus his long of 5, he falls to under 1 yard per carry on the day. The last thing to mention is that Sigismund Sternenstaub's success means that we're down to only 2 people with more than 5 rushes and no successes.
Philidelphia Liberty at Colorado Yeti:
Liberty Rushers:
Darrell Williams: 8/15
Sam Torenson: 3/9
Fuzzy Dotson: 0/2
Yeti Rushers:
Richard Gilbert: 8/17
Anders Christiansen: 3/3
This is quite a bounce back game for Darrell Williams, getting over 50% success rate after a game where he had less than a 20% success rate. This mainly comes from the beginning of the game, where after 2 unsuccessful runs, he had a stretch of 7 successful runs over 8 total. His only success out of that period of time was a 19 yard run, but who cares when that period of time set up 2 touchdowns, helped with another one, and the last success also helped set up a touchdown. This was a very feast or famine day for him, with 111 of his 115 yards coming from his 8 successful carries. Due to how many long carries he had, he doesn't suffer too much from the remove long method despite his long being 48 yards; he still ends up at 4.8 from his 7.7. Torenson got his successes all in a single period of time, with them coming in a 4 carry period. One of his successful carries was a 1 yard touchdown run set up by the passing game. Torenson gets hit extremely heavily by the remove long method, falling from 3 yards per carry to 1.5 yards per carry just by removing his long of 15. Fuzzy Dotson, meanwhile, continues to compete with Zed Keppler for Most Carries with 0 successes.
Gilbert was just extremely consistent throughout the entire night, never getting more than 3 unsuccessful runs in a row (and that only at the very end of the game) and never getting more than 2 successful runs in a row. Granted, his night included a decent number of short yardage successes, which is why he has such a low yards per carry at 3.1. He had a 3 yard carry on 3rd and 3, a 3 yard carry on 3rd and 1, and a 3 yard carry on 2nd and 3. He doesn't get hit TOO hard by the remove long method considering his long was only 11, only falling to 2.6. That being said, without his 3 different 3 yard successes, none of which were set up by him, he'd look a whole lot worse on the night. Anders Christiansen only ran 3 times, falls to 3 yards per carry when you take out his long, and managed to be perfect, running for 45 yards to get into the Red Zone, getting a 4 yard touchdown on 1st and Goal from the 4 on the same drive, and ending his day by sealing the game with a 2 yard run on 3rd and inches to lead to kneel downs.
Arizona Outlaws at New Orleans Second Line:
Outlaws Rushers:
Tatsu Nakamura: 8/18
Gunner Thorbjornsson: 2/4
Second Line Rushers:
Mr Forty Two: 3/7
Mike Rotchburns: 0/6
Nakamura continues his dominance with 3 more touchdowns and another day over 40% efficiency, albeit one helped a decent amount from short yardage successes. He had a 1 yard carry on 3rd and 1, a 3 yard carry on 2nd and 2 (this was set up by a 7 yard run from him, so not that bit a deal), got a 2 point conversion, and scored a 1 yard touchdown. Half of his successes were under 4 yards, although 2 of those were scores and 1 was a 2 point conversion. So why was his yards per carry so high? Well, that 2 point conversion came after a 65 yard touchdown run from him, which tied the game for us. Taking that out puts him at just under 2 yards per carry. Thorbjornsson stays in lockstep with the 50% success rate, getting robbed once and getting given a short yardage success once. He had a 7 yard run! ...that unfortunately came on 1st and 20. He also got a 1 yard touchdown run to make up for it, and a 1 yard carry on 1st and Goal from the 2. Side note, I CANNOT believe that we won this game, I had this chalked up to a loss once time ran out in regulation right as we got into field goal range. And apparently neither can the sim, considering if you look at the Newspaper section it says that Cortez is upset at losing the game.
Mr Forty Two had a pretty good day running, despite falling to a 2.5 yards per carry average once you remove his 38 yard touchdown carry. He got a 1 yard carry on 2nd and 1, albeit one set up by a pass to him, and a 10 yard run on 4th and 2 (somewhat making up for a -2 yard carry on 1st down that same series). The rest of his carries had a 1 yard average. Meanwhile, Rotchburns got somewhat screwed out of a single success. He would have only deserved that one considering the rest of his carries were 3 yards per carry or less, but his long was 9 yards per carry, half of his production, after a short gain on 2nd down from him got them to a 3rd and 9. He went for 9 yards, leaving the Second Line with 4th and Inches. What makes this even more unnecessary is that the Second Line would definitely take a field goal the next day no matter what considering there were only 19 seconds left in the half after the play, so that entire run would have been a waste unless it was a touchdown. Then again, the difference between 1/6 and 0/6 isn't that big of a difference when taking into account the entire season.
Orange County Otters at San Jose Sabercats:
Otters Rushers:
Jeffrey Phillips: 5/9
Ace Savage: 2/6
Bronko Mills: 2/2
Sabercats Rushers:
Jamar Lackson: 9/17
Rando Cardrissian: 1/6
Behold, the Short Yardage Success Squad. I'm pretty sure about half the successes from this team were short yardage. Phillips had a 2 yard rush on 2nd and 4, set up by an offsides call, and a 3 yard gain on 2nd and 5, set up by another Running Back. The 2nd and 4 success he at least capitalized on with a 5 yard gain on the next play for a first down. Due to how many short yardage successes Phillips had, he suffered mightily in the yards per carry department, getting sub 3 on the day. Removing his long of 8 brings him down to 2.25 yards per carry from his 2.8. Meanwhile, Ace Savage only got 2 successes; a 5 yard run to open the day, and a 1 yard run on 2nd and inches. And to top off the short yardage successes, Bronko Mills' two rushes were a 4 yard carry on 1st down and a 2 yard carry on 2nd and 2. In total, the Otters running backs were very efficient at getting just about enough yards to be successful.
Honestly, looking at this success rate I'm kind of peeved that Lackson didn't get the rushing touchdown for the day, as a Lackson fantasy owner. Lackson started out with 5 straight unsuccessful runs. However, after taking advantage of a 2nd and Inches opportunity to get a short yardage success, he'd succeed on 8 of the next 9 carries, with the only one shorter than 4 yards coming from a 2 yard rush on 2nd and 3, which he set up with a 7 yard rush on 1st down. His last success of the day was a 13 yard rush on 2nd and 7 to bring the ball inside the OCO 40 into McDairmid's field goal range for the win. That 13 yard run happened to be his long, and taking it out doesn't cause his yards per carry to dip too far. It ends up only falling to 3.3 from his current 3.9. Through Rando Cardrissian's first 4 rushes on the day, he had a long of 2. His next 2 runs were a 13 yard touchdown carry, and a 3 yard carry on 1st and 10. His only success on the day was his touchdown carry, and as you might expect, this causes him to suffer pretty hard from the remove long method. His yards per carry fall all the way to 1.8, more than half of his current 3.7, and that 3.7 wasn't all that great to begin with.
Honolulu Hahalua at Austin Copperheads:
Hahalua Rushers:
Nicholas Ayers: 7/16
Cobra Kai: 1/4
Luke Skywalker: 0/1
Copperheads Rushers:
Zoe Watts: 1/4
Kichwa Jones: 0/2
Ayers had an absolutely amazing 1st quarter, considering on his 4 rushes during that period he only had 1 failure and immediately made up for that failure with a success. After that point, he'd get the fortune of running for a 1 yard touchdown that was set up by the defense, but other than that he was generally poor on short yardage. He'd run for no gain on 3rd and 1, a short gain on 4th and inches (this was an arguable robbery by the officials, but such is life), and a short gain on 3rd and 1. That last one was at least made up for by a 7 yard gain right afterwards to convert the 4th down. Kai managed to take advantage of one of Ayers' long 1st down runs to pick up a success of his own on short yardage, a 2 yard gain on 2nd and 3. Otherwise he'd have gone without a success. Due to his high number of 0 yard runs, Ayers suffers heavily in both the Yards per Carry department and the Remove Long method; removing his 16 yard long drops him from 3.1 to 2.3.
Watts had one of those days where she arguably got robbed of 1 success but picked up another along the way from short yardage. Her first carry of the day was a 5 yarder on 2nd down, which unfortunately came after a sack made it so that wasn't even halfway to success. Her second carry was a 2 yard run on 2nd and inches. I remain incredibly surprised at how little this team relies on its running back, but maybe the poor performance is part of why. Kichwa Jones' 2 carries are not at all special or interesting to talk about, but they are important for them being the last person who has a 100% success rate on the season. That's over now.
Alright, time for the master list.
52.9% Anders Christiansen 9/17 (+1) COL
50% Gunner Thorbjornsson 19/38 (0) ARI
50% Matthias Hanyadi 11/22 (0) BAL
50% Bronko Mills 2/4 (0) OCO
50% George O'Donnell 1/2 (0) CHI
50% Suleiman Ramza 1/2 (0) OCO
50% Colby Jack 1/2 (0) YKW
46.8% Jameson Vermillion 29/62 (-4) YKW
45.3% Jeffrey Phillips 24/53 (-5) OCO
44.2% Tatsu Nakmura 68/154 (-18) ARI
41.3% Joseph Petrongolo 38/92 (-16) BER
40% Captain Rogers 40/100 (-20) NYS
40% Forrest Gump 2/5 (-1) NOLA
39.7% Raphtalia Chan 56/141 (-29) SAR
38.2% Jamar Lackson 39/102 (-24) SJS
38.1% Baby Yoda 53/139 (-33) CHI
37% Richard Gilbert 40/108 (-28) COL
36.2% Cobra Kai 17/47 (-13) HON
36.1% Acura Skyline 35/97 (-27) YKW
35.8% Sam Torenson 24/67 (-19) PHI
34.9% Running Back 15/43 (-13) SAR
33.3% Mike Boss Jr 1/3 (-1) SAR
33.3% Monty Jack 1/3 (-1) SJS
33.3% Nick Kaepercolin 1/3 (-1) BER
33.3% Kichwa Jones 1/3 (-1) AUS
33% Chika Fujiwara 2/6 (-2) BAL
32.9% Zoe Watts 28/85 (-29) AUS
32.5% Terry Yaki 13/40 (-14) BER
32.4% Darrel Williams 34/105 (-37) PHI
31.3% Rando Cardrissian 20/64 (-24) SJS
30% Mr. Forty Two 21/70 (-28) NOLA
29.6% Julio Tirtawidjaja 8/27 (-11) CHI
29.4% Mai Fukushu 37/126 (-52) BAL
29% Nicholas Ayers 29/100 (-42) HON
28.9% Ashley Owens 11/38 (-16) NYS
28.8% Ace Savage 19/66 (-28) OCO
28.6% Buster Bawls 2/7 (-3) NYS
28.1% Mike Rotchburns 18/64 (-28) NOLA
16.7% Sigismund Sternenstaub 1/6 (-4) SAR
15.4% Jim the Vampire 2/13 (-9) AUS
0% Ben Slothlisberger 0/1 (-1) NOLA
0% Brock Phoenix 0/1 (-1) PHI
0% Sam Howitzer 0/1 (-1) NYS
0% Luke Skywalker 0/3 (-3) HON
0% Charlemagne Cortez 0/2 (-2) ARI
0% Fuzzy Dotson 0/7 (-7) PHI
0% Zed Keppler 0/8 (-8) CHI
Also, Numbers gave me an idea that, just like Goodfortunecoffee's idea earlier, is a good idea and will also get me more money: Total Team success rate!
Arizona: 87/194 (44.8% success rate)
Yellowknife: 65/161 (40.4% success rate)
Colorado: 49/125 (39.2 success rate)
Berlin: 52/135 (38.5% success rate)
Sarasota: 73/193 (37.8% success rate)
Orange County: 46/125 (36.8% success rate)
New York: 53/146 (36.3% success rate)
San Jose: 60/169 (35.5% success rate)
Chicago: 62/176 (35.2 success rate)
Baltimore: 50/154 (32.5% success rate)
Philadelphia: 58/180 (32.2% success rate)
Austin: 31/101 (30.7% success rate)
Honolulu: 46/150 (30.7% success rate)
New Orleans: 41/140 (29.3% success rate)
Looking at this, it's pretty clear how outstanding Arizona's running game has been, and how poor the bottom 3 have been.
(3520 words)