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*NSFC Playoff Scenarios - infinitempg - 03-02-2021

The ASFC Playoff picture is wrapped up with New Orleans having swept San Jose and having clinched a better conference record than New York, the only interesting thing that can happen is with Honolulu and Arizona fighting for home field advantage. If both the Outlaws and Hahalua win, it comes down to a Points For tiebreaker.

There will be lots of excitement in the NSFC! With the possibility of Sarasota, Chicago, Yellowknife, and Colorado ending up all at 11-5, Wednesday night's sims will be a must watch.

For those who don't know the tiebreakers, they are as follows:
  1. Head-to-Head records (between all teams tied)
  2. Conference record
  3. Points For
  4. Honestly who knows

The way DDSPF16 worked, and the way I will assume DDSPF21 works, is that in every tiebreak it searches for the team that ADVANCES, removes from the from the tiebreak, and STARTS OVER AGAIN from step 1 with the remaining teams. This is how Orange County managed to sneak into the playoffs last season.


Here are the scenarios, which I am 69% sure are correct (assuming the same logic as DDSPF16):

[Image: unknown.png]

A few interesting notes:
  • Chicago has clinched a spot in the playoffs. No matter what happens tomorrow night, they are in. There are only two scenarios where they could end up out of the top 2 seeds, and those come on Points For tiebreakers.
  • Sarasota has all but clinched a spot - there are only two scenarios where a Points For tiebreak with Colorado (who they currently lead by 12 points, 455-443) eliminates them.
  • Yellowknife still control their own destiny - if they win, they're in. If they lose, a Colorado win would eliminate them from the playoffs.
  • Colorado are in dire straits. They need to win and have Yellowknife lose to get in - OR push for a 4-way tie at 11-5 OR a 3-way tie at 11-5 with YKW and SAR, in which they would need to score 13 or more points than the Sailfish.
  • The four-way tie would be the M A X I M U M  C H A O S scenario this year, a somewhat less good follow-up to last season's magnificent five-way tie in the ASFC. It will excitingly come down to a Points For tiebreaker too, so break out those calculators. If we want even more chaos, let the Yeti score 12 more points than the Sailfish and allow us to find out what the magical 4th tiebreaker is!

Like I said before, I'm about 69% sure that these scenarios are right, but let me know if I missed something!


TL;DR:
  • CHI are in
  • SAR are in unless they lose + YKW win + COL win + COL score 13+ more points than they do
  • YKW are in with a win, out if they lose + COL win
  • COL are out unless they win + YKW lose OR they win + SAR lose + YKW win + SAR score 13+ fewer points than they do


RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - Big Edd - 03-02-2021

https://tenor.com/view/dumb-and-dumber-lloyd-theres-a-chance-jim-carrey-gif-11098164

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - gucci - 03-02-2021

Apologies to the nice people of Colorado. Hahalua are knocking you out of the playoffs in the Big Edd Revenge Bowl tomorrow night.

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - slate - 03-02-2021

For what it's worth, in playing around with the sim earlier I found that Sarasota won a tiebreak against Colorado when the two were exactly equal in points (happened once).

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - Cheech65 - 03-02-2021

So uh, how does Berlin get in?

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - Pat - 03-02-2021

So what you're saying is that tomorrow the Liberty are really playing for the love of either Yellowknife or Colorado. That's tough. What happens if we tie?

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - IsaStarcrossed - 03-02-2021

(03-02-2021, 03:33 PM)Punter715 Wrote: So what you're saying is that tomorrow the Liberty are really playing for the love of either Yellowknife or Colorado. That's tough. What happens if we tie?

I don't ask for much but pls win. Kthx luvulongtime

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - AdamS - 03-02-2021

I think the Hammerheads can still win this.

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - PMoney - 03-03-2021

(03-02-2021, 03:33 PM)Punter715 Wrote: So what you're saying is that tomorrow the Liberty are really playing for the love of either Yellowknife or Colorado. That's tough. What happens if we tie?
You already had our love but we would appreciate it even more if you could also not kill our hopes and dreams.

RE: NSFC Playoff Scenarios - Pat - 03-03-2021

(03-03-2021, 11:27 AM)PMoney Wrote:
(03-02-2021, 03:33 PM)Punter715 Wrote: So what you're saying is that tomorrow the Liberty are really playing for the love of either Yellowknife or Colorado. That's tough. What happens if we tie?
You already had our love but we would appreciate it even more if you could also not kill our hopes and dreams.

My loyalty can be purchased with kind words and smooches.