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+---- Thread: *Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot (/showthread.php?tid=33652)
*Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - ztarwarz - 07-13-2021
Awards, and thus Pro Bowl, are always a pretty contentious time of the year. I'd wager that this year there weren't any truly outrageous snubs at least during the ISFL awards, no 3rd best player beat out 2 better players for an award, and as for pro bowls, there was really only 1 snub if you don't count people playing out of position for pro bowl spots: Owen Holloway arguably was better than all 4 players who actually made the ASFC list of WRs last season. Then again, that took looking at advanced stats and that appears to be something awards voters generally don't do.
That being said, there was one ballot that drew attention. First, for leaving the unanimous RBotY off of their list for Pro Bowl, and soon afterwards, for all the players of a certain team that ended up on the ballot. I wanted to look at this and ask: Was this explainable by mere homerism? Or did it take much more of an effort to completely disregard certain players' performance on the year.
Now, granted, none of this actually ended up mattering for All Pro spots. They even nominated Holloway for WRotY, the only snub I think there was. However, I, and probably most of the league, prefer people to put a bit of effort into awards voting.
I'm going to ignore the ASFC ballots for this, as they are wholly unimportant to the analysis of this ballot. So, we start with...
PRO BOWL QBs: Matthias Caliban (COL) and Colby Jack
Level of Homerism: Extremely High
Last season, Caliban won a QBotY award that I personally felt was completely undeserved. He followed it up this year with even worse efficiency and no argument for the award despite still having high volume. He had a bottom half TD/INT ratio, only beating out people deep in regression or young QBs, his yards per attempt was 3rd but his adjusted yards per attempt was barely in the upper half, and to top it all off only 3 QBs had a higher turnover percent on the year. Even without going into advanced stats, though, you could tell this wasn't a pro bowl caliber season. By Passer Rating, Matthias had the T-7th best season...tied with Ryan Negs, who got exactly 0 votes. Caliban's homerism rating wouldn't be quite as high, he wasn't THAT much behind the 5th or 6th best QBs, except for one key factor: The 3 best QBs this season were all in the NSFC. Colby Jack, Mike Boss Jr, and Nick Kaepercolin were my top 3 QBs this year, with Jack leading the way, and in order to put Caliban on a ballot you had to put him above both Boss and Kaepercolin. There's a clear reason that nobody else did that.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 1 vs 1
PRO BOWL RBs: Busch Goose, Richard Gilbert (COL), Chizuru Ichinose
Level of Homerism: I'm more wondering about the Goose pick than the COL pick
Gilbert was in my opinion the 2nd best RB in the NSFC this season, albeit with a similar imbalance in RB power in favor of the ASFC compared to QB power in favor of the NSFC. His high touchdown rate made him too much of a force to ignore, even with his extremely low yards per carry. That being said, there is a question: Was the Busch Goose pick made because of Infinite's ties to Colorado? He did play for them with both of his prior players. That being said, that's getting way too much into the weeds of things, and I can see an argument for Goose as the 3rd best RB of the NSFC last season. The weird thing is that I'd have put him over Ichinose instead of Danny King Jr. Not that big of a deal.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 2 vs 3
PRO BOWL FBs: Sigismund Sternenstaub
Level of Homerism: Nil*
Don't need to go into this much, if at all; Sternenstaub was the best fullback in the NSFC by quite a ways this season. There is one major caveat to this, and that's what the asterisk is about: Colorado didn't roster a fullback, and thus I can't count this as reason triumphing over Homerism.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 2 vs 4
PRO BOWL WRs: Cole Maxwell (COL), Raphael Delacour (COL), William Lim (COL), Kai Sakura
Here's the most noticeable one. First of all, I'd like to congratulate Sakura for having such a strong season. Second of all, some of these COL picks have some arguments behind them, so I'll address their homerism separately.
Lim Level of Homerism: Nil
Of all the players on COL, Lim was probably the best last season, and was at worst the 3rd best WR in the NSFC; I personally had him 2nd behind Sakura. Over 15 yards per target, over 10 yards per reception, and quite a good number of touchdowns to boot, plus his lead in receiving yards meant he was a worthy pick for the Pro Bowl.
Maxwell Level of Homerism: Medium
Maxwell has some arguments for making the Pro Bowl, although these are the kind of arguments that falter upon closer inspection. He was top 15 in receiving yards! But that was because he was top 3 in targets, and had the lowest catch rate in the entire league (not counting Podolak's return from the dead for 1 reception on 3 targets). He had the most drops in the league, with 17...the next highest anyone had was 9. He had over 13.5 yards per reception, but it fell all the way to under 9 yards per target. He also had over 100 penalty yards, and didn't even get many touchdowns to make up for it, only 3. I'd personally argue that at least 7 receivers in the NSFC either did a better job at being a high target, low efficiency player, or were better with their production and their efficiency. And as someone who values high efficiency on medium production more than high (and not even all that high) production on low efficiency, I'd add another 3 or 4 receivers that I'd put over him. Including multiple receivers from 4 different NSFC teams. So why is the Homerism only medium? Because there are mitigating factors, chiefly being that Colorado has a right to feel robbed of at least a nomination for Offensive Rookie of the Year for Maxwell.
Delacour Level of Homerism: Massive
But then it falls apart with Delacour. As far as I would vote, if Colorado were to have 2 Wide Receivers make the All Pro team, Delacour would actually be my pick other than Lim; Colorado was one of the 4 NSFC teams to have 2 receivers I consider better than Maxwell. So why the difference in homerism ranking? Because there's an ARGUMENT for Maxwell to be on the list. There's an ARGUMENT for Delacour to be on the list. There were mitigating factors for Maxwell, but in order to have both Delacour and Maxwell on the ballot, you have to value both high production on low efficiency, AND medium production on high efficiency. Delacour did a great job at something I personally value, but if you were to consider him worthwhile, then you pretty much have to consider players such as Saleem Spence (probably a bit below Delacour but there's an argument) and Mark Walker (flat out a massive upgrade on Delacour in every way) for the ballot. I probably wouldn't be looking at this ballot if not for this WR voting, where a pair of maaaaaaybe top 10 NSFC receivers got into the top 4, requiring the voter to care about completely different and contrary things in order to put them both on. If one of these two was replaced with Skiuuup, or Walker, or even someone like Jvathon or Hood, I probably wouldn't be looking at this ballot at all. As is I'm less than halfway done.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 5 vs 5
PRO BOWL TEs: James Angler, Zee Rechs
Level of Homerism: Nil
We finally come to the first place where I have absolutely no reservations with the vote: these were the top two TEs in the league, much less the NSFC, and they deserved the Pro Bowl spot.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 5 vs 7
PRO BOWL C: Manhatten Project (COL)
Level of Homerism: Extremely High
Maybe more than any other position in the league, OL has the most hard numbers surrounding how good a player is. Manhatten Project had 2 major standout stats that basically put an end to his candidacy in any serious fashion for this spot: 64 penalties, 1 less than the eventual winner of this spot, and 3 sacks allowed. 3! Awards voters apparently take 10 pancakes as equal to 1 sack allowed, and this would push Project down to maybe 4th in the NSFC Center rankings, definitively below both Icebox Riposte and Taylor Cooper, and I'd have him below Bob Bob as well. Project flat out did not belong here.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 6 vs 7
PRO BOWL OGs: Givussafare Rubbe, Dorfus Jimbo Jr (COL)
Level of Homerism: Minor, plus a headscratcher
Same ranking as the RBs, but much smaller this time. I can see an easy argument for Jimbo as the 2nd best OG in the NSFC this past season, albeit I don't think I had him as such. The only problem is that there is someone who is basically better than Jimbo in all respects who is not on the list, Lebron James III. And Rubbe is far down the list of candidates. At a bare minimum, I'd put the 4 players who did make the Pro Bowl for the NSFC over Rubbe, as well as, of all people, Colorado's 2nd guard. I seriously don't get the Rubbe vote, as much as I love Caltroit.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 7 vs 8
PRO BOWL OTs: Mo Magic, Alexander Franklin
Level of Homerism: Nil
No Colorado players, and no really strange pick here. Good job.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 7 vs 10
PRO BOWL DEs: Xmus Flaxon Jaxon Waxon (COL), Immanuel Blackstone (COL)
Waxon Level of Homerism: Might end up being the single most blatant homer pick of the ballot
Blackstone Level of Homerism: Nil
You almost had it. Blackstone was a perfectly reasonable pick for a Pro Bowl spot for the NSFC. If you had him as your number 2 for the NSFC, there wouldn't be any problems. Then Xmus goes on the ballot and all of a sudden you go from reasonable pick to complete and total homer filled mess in an instant. Waxon had less than 10 negative plays to his name, and didn't get that many tackles. He had a worse season than, at minimum, both DEs from BALTIMORE, Demon Jackson, MVP, Blackstone, and, most notably, the guy who was the single best DE in the entire league this season by a country mile, Leonard Taylor. You kept off a guy that made the Edge all pro team over multiple great LINEBACKERS, for a guy who had less than 30 tackles and less than 10 impact plays. Everyone else had Taylor on, and for very good reason.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 9 vs 10
PRO BOWL DTs: Magnus Rikiya (COL), Patrik Money
Level of Homerism: Somehow worse than Waxon
I don't know what to say about this one. I'll start with that the best DT from the NSFC is missing from this ballot: Honky Tonk Haywood. Then we get into Rikiya...at least Waxon wasn't arguably a bottom 5 DE in the NSFC last season. And that's weird to say considering this is Tesla and a player who still has over 1000 TPE after another season of regression. But it's true: 9 missed tackles to only 37 made makes Rikiya the player with the worst Tackle% of anyone with more than 3 tackles out of all DTs. Most of the other DTs in the league have either more negative plays made, more tackles, or both. Even at the most charitable I could possibly be, both Berlin DTs, Money, Haywood, Fawn Dilmiballs, and Daymond Brooks are all better and I think I could go on for a couple more players. I think it's almost inarguable that Yuuto Kira Cloudera was a better player last season, that's how far down the list Rikiya is.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 10 vs 11
PRO BOWL LBs: Juan Domine, Melvin Murder Moose (COL), Rusty Rucker (COL)
Moose Level of Homerism: Low but definitely Present
Rucker Level of Homerism: Medium
Maybe this is because I'm coming off back to back travesties of award voting, but while neither Moose nor Rucker would have made my list, I can at least say that they aren't completely out of left field, as seen by Rucker getting on the team, albeit in a way that I don't agree with. Thing is, there is an argument between Moose, who didn't get on the team, and Pengu, who did, for best LB on Colorado. In my opinion both are more impressive than Rucker, who split time at Edge and MLB and was good at both but not spectacular at either. If I were to vote on the NSFC I think I'd put Ernest Lover, a clear snub from the All Pro team although not as big as Holloway, Derred De Ville, and Michael Witheblock on there. You'll notice that Domine isn't on the list. I love Mag, but I'm not entirely sure why he made it on this pro bowl list. I think this ballot would be more accurate, although way more homerish, if it had all 3 Colorado LBs on it. And neither would have been particularly accurate.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 12 vs 12
PRO BOWL CBs: Swantavious Jones, Nationalsimulation Footballleague (COL), Albert Ruschmann (COL)
Ruschmann Level of Homerism: Nil
Footballleague Level of Homerism: High
Ruschmann was flat out one of the better cornerbacks in the league and might have been the best cornerback in the NSFC this season. There are absolutely no problems with him getting put on this ballot, especially when the other competitor for that title is also on the ballot anyways. No, the problems with this set of votes comes down to Footballleague getting on the ballot. Unlike some other players on defense for Colorado, Footballleague wasn't a bad player this year. He got a few turnovers, got a lot of pass deflections, had a good percentage of completions given up. No, the high level of homerism comes down to the level of competition. From players who were arguably better, such as Osiris Firestorm Fjord and Jeeroy Lenkins, to players where Footballleague clearly comes up short by comparison, such as C. J. Sonjack and especially Harrison Andrews (Andrews especially was basically an upgrade on Footballleague in pretty much every stat), Footballleague getting on the ballot was a clear example of homerism.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 14 vs 13
PRO BOWL S: Sparky Sparky Boom Man (COL), Joel Drake (COL), Romulus Roman
Drake Level of Homerism: Low, although the vote itself might have me bump it up a spot
Boom Man Level of Homerism: Extremely High
Drake might have barely made my list of Pro Bowl safeties for the year personally, mainly due to the strength of the position. We again have a ballot, much like the Linebackers, where I could easily construct a ballot that leaves every single member of this group off and have a much easier time defending it, with Cuco Clemente and Jeremiah Zelos almost inarguably being better than any member of this list, and Damian Blackfire and Eldrick Avery only competing with Drake, leaving the other two in the dust. Then we get to Boom Man. Safeties generally get on the pro bowl list due to being either great at coverage or great at causing impact plays, and Boom Man was neither of those things last season. He was at most slightly above average at coverage and impact plays, and there were more than enough candidates for me to have Boom Man nowhere near my short list, much less actually making the ballot.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 16 vs 14
PRO BOWL K: Lux Opal (COL)
Level of Homerism: High
The Kicker and Punter awards are the only ones that come even close to Offensive Line in the way that hard numbers can determine the outcome. And it may come as no shock that a player who only got awards from this one ballot probably shouldn't have sniffed the vote total. Granted, this isn't the only team who probably voted for their player over a more deserving one in the kicker contest, but this one came with so much more baggage. Opal had absolutely no argument over Blago Kokot except for one missed extra point (in exchange for over 10 percentage points of better field goal accuracy) and had even less of an argument over Fencick, who did lack in accuracy almost as much as Opal but did make up for it with a much, much higher difficulty of kicks.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 17 vs 14
PRO BOWL P: Lux Opal (COL)
Level of Homerism: Extremely High
Granted, I'd say only one more player was better than Opal in this category than the last one, but that means a whole lot when the pool is made up of 7 total players. The trio of Danny King, Blago Kokot, and Sam Sidekick all had a massive lead in punt average, King even had a higher rate of punts inside the 20 and Sidekick did it on a lot more punts, and as such there was no way Opal should have been anywhere near the spot.
Side note, the 3 teams that voted for Armando Galarraga, please don't award the worst punter in the league for punting more times than any other player in the NSFC, just for not playing well on a bad team. At least the team that paired it with a vote for Bloomfield makes a kind of logical sense, even if it's logic from Pluto.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 18 vs 14
PRO BOWL Rets: Kai Sakura, Nationalsimulation Footballleague (COL)
Level of Homerism: Battling with Rikiya and Waxon for most homer pick of the ballot
Returner, again, has a couple numbers that people like. They really like touchdowns, and if you don't have a touchdown then you should probably have at least one average, either Punt Returns or Kick Returns, that you're good at. Footballleague fails on all 3 accounts. He didn't have a touchdown, and managed to bring to the table a Kick Return average below 25 yards per return, beaten out by 9 different players from the NSFC with at least 15 returns, and managed to do even worse on Punt Returns. Their 6.8 average yards per punt return was worse than all but 2 players in the league, and all but one of the players from the NSFC who were better on Punt Returns were also better on Kick Returns. And 2 of them also got a touchdown. Footballleague was literally one of the worst major returners in the entire ISFL last season.
COL vs Rest of NSFC: 19 vs 15
So, where does that leave this ballot? There are a number of players who legitimately belonged on the ballot, but not all that many. By my count, I'd have 4 Colorado players on my pro bowl ballot, and this one has close to 5 times as many. This ballot has 4 more Colorado players than players from every other team in the NSFC combined. As such, even the more reasonable homerish picks, such as the Linebacker Ballot, stick out worse than they could have. And some of these players just flat out do not belong under any logical way of picking players that doesn't come down to picking from a single team.
Now, these ballots were completely anonymous, but it's very hard not to think a specific team did this. If not, then Chicago or Berlin or whatever other team did this, I applaud you for your masterful trolling job. That being said, I know this is a simulation football league, and these awards don't matter all that much, but I'd personally appreciate if people actually put a modicum of effort into awards voting.
(3402 words)
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - Modern_Duke - 07-13-2021
Jeez they ask me to handle voting one time and I get called out like this
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - Jo3fish5 - 07-13-2021
sus
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - qWest - 07-13-2021
I'll take "Reasons Why GMs Shouldn't Vote For Awards and Pro Bowl" for a thousand Alex (RIP).
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - shadyshoelace - 07-13-2021
(07-13-2021, 01:50 PM)Modern_Duke Wrote: Jeez they ask me to handle voting one time and I get called out like this
gonna need the voting bias breakdown article on this one for sure
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - Tayjay - 07-13-2021
So I wasn’t crazy when I saw someone didn’t put me on their Pro Bowl ballot.
![[Image: giphy-downsized-large.gif]](https://media1.giphy.com/media/EU7NZRGkwt8KA/giphy-downsized-large.gif)
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - ComebackZak - 07-13-2021
LMAO this is fucking wild
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - negs - 07-13-2021
Wonder if this pops off
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - Gragg9 - 07-13-2021
(07-13-2021, 02:40 PM)negs Wrote: Wonder if this pops off
The thread roster would make for a better ballot
RE: Taking a look at a specific Pro Bowl ballot - Jimi64 - 07-13-2021
wow