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+---- Thread: *Top Target (/showthread.php?tid=3670)
*Top Target - kckolbe - 08-25-2017
Welcome to Top Target. This will be an annual series attempting to determine the top wide receiver in the National Simulation Football League, as well as recognizing a few others do definitely deserve recognition.
Let’s start by congratulation Orange County’s Robert Phelps @DrunkenTeddy for shattering the receiving records with 83 receptions for 1406 yards. He had an absolutely fantastic Season Two, and many consider him (understandably enough) to be the #1 wide receiver in the league. While he is definitely deserving of consideration for the award, I don’t think it’s that clear cut. After all, FIVE different wide receivers surpassed last year’s receiving record as the league began its ongoing transition to more of a passing league. Season One top performer Josh Garden @Ballerstorm of the Yellowknife Wraiths certainly didn’t appear to decline. Many have talked about how Philadelphia rookie Fox North @Silver Fox has stepped up and become the focus of an offense much in need of heroes. Couldn’t any of them make an argument for being the number one wide receiver in the league? Yes. Not only that, but there are two receivers who deserve STRONG consideration, and whose names I have not heard discussed. Mayran Jackson @Kendrick of the Arizona Outlaws tied Robert Phelps in receptions and tied for the longest reception in NSFL history. Kendrick Hendrix @deadendpath27 of the Colorado Yeti had the lowest receiving yards of the group, sure, but he also got in the end zone more than any other receiver. Isn’t that the goal? As you can see, this topic deserves consideration.
Before diving in, here is a quick statistical reference for each receiver.
Phelps 83 1406 16.9 42 5
Garden 73 1220 16.7 45 8
North 76 1302 17.1 48 4
Jackson 83 1201 14.5 54 8
Hendrix 72 1198 16.6 45 9
Now, every receiver has numbers that stand out, but these are all out of context. For example, Garden had 19 yards more than Jackson, but Jackson’s team threw for over 400 fewer yards. Fox North had the least touchdowns, but his team threw the least touchdowns. I decided to compare every receiver by how important he was to his own team’s passing offense (by receptions and yards). Unfortunately, that led to complications as some teams were far more devoted to rushing, so I then compared each receiver by share of total offensive yards. I then did the same for TDs.
I didn’t compare EVERY stat. After some internal debate, I completely discarded YPC and longest reception. My logic was this: if you are moving the chains with every catch, then the rest is just bonus, unless it results in a touchdown. All WRs clearly exceeded 10 yards per catch, so I didn’t think it was that important. I also excluded longest reception as there was only a difference of 12 yards from highest to lowest. That’s just not that significant. Show me a receiver who can break the entire field for a touchdown, and then I’ll reconsider.
Here was the process. I gave each receiver 8 categories to be graded on. Those categories were:
Receptions
% of team receptions
Receiving yards
% of team receiving yards
% of team offensive yards
Touchdowns
% of team receiving touchdowns
% of team offensive touchdowns
For each category where a receiver was above the average of the five in consideration, I awarded one point. For each category where a receiver was the highest, I awarded an additional point. For each category where a receiver was lowest, I subtracted a point. Here were the scores:
Robert Phelps: 7
Kendrick Hendrix: 7
Mayran Jackson: 4
Fox North: 2
Josh Garden: 0
Here are some noteworthy observations:
Kendrick Hendrix was the highest in four categories, % of team receiving yards, Touchdowns, % of team receiving touchdowns, and % of team offensive touchdowns.
Josh Garden was the highest in zero categories and the lowest in three categories, % of team receptions, % of team receiving yards, and % of team offensive yards.
Mayran Jackson was the only receiver to not be the lowest in any category.
Josh Garden finished last.
So…it looks like we are all done, right? Stuck in a two-way tie? Maybe we could use the two categories I excluded as tiebreakers? Well, they each bested the other in one category there. However, if I applied my scoring system to those, Hendrix would win. I don’t really like that, though, having just said earlier that I didn’t think it was important. If only there were some OTHER contributions these players made…like SPECIAL TEAMS!
Josh Garden, Robert Phelps, and Kendrick Hendrix all did work as returners in Season Two. In the interest of a more complete picture, I added % of total yards and % of non-defensive touchdowns to the categories. Before posting the results, here were the adjusted stat lines for all-purpose yards and TDs.
Kendrick Hendrix 1878 yards, 9 touchdowns
Robert Phelps 1924 yards, 6 touchdowns
Josh Garden 1931 yards, 8 touchdowns
Now, here were the final results:
Kendrick Hendrix: 11
Robert Phelps: 7
Josh Garden: 4
Mayran Jackson: 1
Fox North: 0
As you can see, what Garden lacked in receiving yards, he more than made up for as a kick and punt returner. On top of that, he was also the only wide receiver this year to record a tackle. He had 5 of them, as well as a recovered fumble. While Garden’s numbers as a receiver are only competitive, his work in every aspect of the game definitely deserve recognition. Though tempted, I did not add tackles as a category. If I had, Garden would have been tied for second in overall points with Robert Phelps at 6 apiece.
In conclusion, while Robert Phelps had an amazing, record-setting season, I think that Kendrick Hendrix actually has the strongest case as number one receiver this year. Also, if it doesn’t undermine my credibility too much, maybe consider Josh Garden a little higher on the top 50. Had he selfishly focused on receiving, who knows how many more yards he could have had. While I won’t blame anyone who still ranks Phelps as #1 this year, I hope this analysis at least gets Hendrix the consideration he has quietly earned.
((1037 words. To whoever grades this, this was an assload of work))
*Top Target - kckolbe - 08-25-2017
This should actually be under statistical analysis, my bad.
*Top Target - tlk742 - 08-25-2017
One point of contention that puts Phelps above the rest, removing the last 3 weeks (I lack the data) of catching rate, (courtesy of @Bzerkap) is that Phelps out performed the average catch rate by an enormous 8%. 85% of all balls thrown the way of Phelps were caught. Only 15%. That's nuts. He was far and away the most reliable WR on any play. The impact he provided at any distance made him the best WR
*Top Target - kckolbe - 08-25-2017
(08-25-2017, 08:29 PM)tlk742 Wrote:One point of contention that puts Phelps above the rest, removing the last 3 weeks (I lack the data) of catching rate, (courtesy of @Bzerkap) is that Phelps out performed the average catch rate by an enormous 8%. 85% of all balls thrown the way of Phelps were caught. Only 15%. That's nuts. He was far and away the most reliable WR on any play. The impact he provided at any distance made him the best WR
Could you post the catch % numbers for the rest of the contenders? That's a damn valid metric, and I'll factor it in if you have it.
*Top Target - DrunkenTeddy - 08-25-2017
(08-25-2017, 07:29 PM)tlk742 Wrote:One point of contention that puts Phelps above the rest, removing the last 3 weeks (I lack the data) of catching rate, (courtesy of @Bzerkap) is that Phelps out performed the average catch rate by an enormous 8%. 85% of all balls thrown the way of Phelps were caught. Only 15%. That's nuts. He was far and away the most reliable WR on any play. The impact he provided at any distance made him the best WR<3
*Top Target - Oles - 08-25-2017
(08-25-2017, 10:10 PM)kckolbe Wrote:So…it looks like we are all done, right? Stuck in a two-way tie? Maybe we could use the two categories I excluded as tiebreakers? Well, they each bested the other in one category there. However, if I applied my scoring system to those, Hendrix would win. I don’t really like that, though, having just said earlier that I didn’t think it was important. If only there were some OTHER contributions these players made…like SPECIAL TEAMS!
Josh Garden, Robert Phelps, and Kendrick Hendrix all did work as returners in Season Two. In the interest of a more complete picture, I added % of total yards and % of non-defensive touchdowns to the categories. Before posting the results, here were the adjusted stat lines for all-purpose yards and TDs.
This bugs me, I know I would never include special teams as a category for a wide receiver ranking list. It would be like saying Devin Hester is a great WR because he was a great returner, we all know that isn't true.
*Top Target - kckolbe - 08-25-2017
(08-25-2017, 08:52 PM)To12143 Wrote:This bugs me, I know I would never include special teams as a category for a wide receiver ranking list. It would be like saying Devin Hester is a great WR because he was a great returner, we all know that isn't true.
I actually agree, which is why I only used it as a tie-breaker. I didn't elevate a mediocre receiver into consideration based on it.
*Top Target - Oles - 08-25-2017
(08-25-2017, 10:56 PM)kckolbe Wrote:I actually agree, which is why I only used it as a tie-breaker. I didn't elevate a mediocre receiver into consideration based on it.
The problem I have with using it as a tiebreaker is that it devalues anyone who was not a part of the special teams, since some teams use rbs, dbs, or other receivers for their returner.
*Top Target - tlk742 - 08-25-2017
(08-25-2017, 10:32 PM)kckolbe Wrote:Could you post the catch % numbers for the rest of the contenders? That's a damn valid metric, and I'll factor it in if you have it.
Sure I'm away for the weekend on vacation but will when I return
*Top Target - kckolbe - 08-25-2017
(08-25-2017, 09:06 PM)tlk742 Wrote:Sure I'm away for the weekend on vacation but will when I return
No rush, may as well get all the weeks in there to be fair. Hell, do it as your own article and get paid.