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+---- Thread: *According to My Calculations (/showthread.php?tid=4446)
*According to My Calculations - timeconsumer - 09-10-2017
Hello and welcome back to another edition where of According to my Calculations where I take statistical noise and present it as valid analysis. The last few episodes of this series has been taking a look at season two week to week consistency between players of different positions. If you missed it, well you didn't miss much, but please check back to the first one where I at least discuss my methodology behind this process.
This round we are looking at everyone's favorite position, offensive line. We will attempt to draw conclusions and inferences based upon the week-to-week consistency between offensive line stats for individual players. We begin with our table:
![[Image: 7vzuNUb.png]](https://i.imgur.com/7vzuNUb.png)
Wew, that's a little bigger than normal. But offensive line does everything bigger. You may notice certain players are missing. That is intentional. I am purposely only including players who played all 14 games last season. You also had to have started in those games. So Marcus Boyd's aren't included. The reason behind this is that somebody who gets 0 stats every game is pretty damned consistent, but not very helpful for this article.
Now, let's break down what we are looking at here. First of all I would like to skip straight to the Pancake Rate Variance (Pancakes / Plays * 100) and Sack Rate Variance (Sacks Allowed / Plays * 100). It is apparent that of last season's top-10 performers that the Wraiths two dominating Tackles Matt Akselsen and Jogn Floggity are the most consistent game-to-game with their pancake production rates. On the flipside of this Angus Winchester, Vincent Sharpei, Ben Longshaw, and Tim Pest were the most inconsistent in Pancake rates during season 2 games.
In sack allowance rates Tim Pest was the most consistent last season (duh, he had 0 every game), while among the top performers Jogn Floggity and Matt Akselsen again come in at the top of most consistent of the overall top-10 offensive linemen in season 2. Meanwhile the same names pop up again for inconsistency as well: Ben Longshaw, Vincent Sharpei, and Angus Winchester.
So right off the bat it's pretty easy to say that the Wraiths line was the most consistent throughout season 2 while the Sabercats line was the least consistent. Looking at the Otters actives you can see that Clegane and Winchester also proved to be a variant duo.
So how do overall pancakes and sacks compare with the rates of production per snap? Well a quick correlation (again, probably violating some fundamental rule of statistics here) shows that the weekly variance in pancakes and sacks allowed follows an almost linear trend with their respective rates per play. Well, that makes sense. Offensive linemen are usually on the field every play. So even if their snaps are reduced in a game they still are likely to get similar stats. I think I worded that poorly. Whatever. It makes sense.
So what about our lower tier performers? Well there we're seeing a lot more consistency. On the pancake front that makes sense, fewer per game means less variance per game also (usually). Sacks follow a similar trend. Guys who have more sacks throughout the season tend to have higher variances between each game. So our lower tier performers have much more sack variance. With exceptions of course, Angus Winchester was still the most inconsistent in sack prevention game-to-game, even though he only allowed 3 sacks all season.
So, overall not extremely interesting stuff but it is noteworthy that certain teams (or certain pairs of OTs) seem to be doing much more or less consistent than others. That's all for now, next time we'll look at linebackers, or something.
*According to My Calculations - 7hawk77 - 09-11-2017
Pretty interesting stuff.
I felt like the SJS have a good OL but I didn't realize how inconsistent it was... I think I'd take inconsistent for good upside with a mobile QB since he can bail himself out.
*According to My Calculations - TheMemeMaestro - 09-11-2017
smh where am I?
*According to My Calculations - Archon - 09-11-2017
(09-11-2017, 06:41 PM)TheMemeMaestro Wrote:smh where am I?
Noob you only played 12 games noob and, noob, if you would read he only included players that played all 14 noob.
Noob.
*According to My Calculations - TheMemeMaestro - 09-11-2017
(09-11-2017, 06:46 PM)Archon Wrote:Noob you only played 12 games noob and, noob, if you would read he only included players that played all 14 noob.
Noob.
Noob.
*According to My Calculations - timeconsumer - 09-11-2017
(09-11-2017, 02:19 PM)7hawk77 Wrote:Pretty interesting stuff.
I felt like the SJS have a good OL but I didn't realize how inconsistent it was... I think I'd take inconsistent for good upside with a mobile QB since he can bail himself out.
Yeah, consistency isn't really a measure of effectiveness. It's just an interesting way to look at things.
*According to My Calculations - iamslm22 - 09-11-2017
(09-11-2017, 09:53 PM)timeconsumer Wrote:Yeah, consistency isn't really a measure of effectiveness. It's just an interesting way to look at things.
Right. You can be consistently terrible. This is interesting! Thanks.
*According to My Calculations - timeconsumer - 09-11-2017
(09-11-2017, 10:58 PM)iamslm22 Wrote:Right. You can be consistently terrible. This is interesting! Thanks.
Exactly. I was more consistent in rushing yards last season than any starting running back in the NFL.