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+---- Thread: *ELO Rating - season 3 - week 2 (/showthread.php?tid=4795)
*ELO Rating - season 3 - week 2 - JuOSu - 09-21-2017
Here is an update for the ELO ratings.
In week 2, the ELO rating predicted all four games correctly yet again, coming to a 8-0 total for the season. This was especially impressive in the Sabercats game, where over 90% of people predicted the Wraiths to win (and they almost did in a predictably very tight game).
Here is the new ranking after week 2:
Arizona Outlaws - 1661 (+12)
Orange County Otters - 1566 (+21)
Baltimore Hawks - 1516 (+17) +1 rank
Colorado Yeti - 1505 (-21) -1 rank
Yellowknife Wraiths - 1487 (-6)
San Jose Sabercats - 1396 (+6) +1 rank
Philadelphia Liberty - 1393 (-12) -1 rank
Las Vegas Legion - 1340 (-17)
The Baltimore Hawks, climbing the ranking, already up two spots from the pre-season after two weeks.
For week 3 that means:
1516 Baltimore Hawks - 1505 Colorado Yeti
1566 Orange County Otters - 1487 Yellowknife Wraiths
1340 Las Vegas Yeti - 1661 Arizona Outlaws
1393 Philadelphia Liberty - 1396 San Jose Sabercats
Win percentages are:
Colorado 65%
Yellowknife 56%
Arizona 92%
San Jose 67%
Arizona with one of the most likely wins ever, we will see if it actually comes true. Colorado is likely going to be a team that many people pick against, with their lack of Logan Noble and against a rising Baltimore Hawks team. The spreads for the PT for week 4 are also based on these new rankings, though obviously they will change between week 3 and week 4. However, the double-header means that I had to use current ones.
GRADED
*ELO Rating - season 3 - week 2 - 37thchamber - 09-21-2017
(09-21-2017, 11:58 AM)JuOSu Wrote:The spreads for the PT for week 4 are also based on these new rankings, though obviously they will change between week 3 and week 4. However, the double-header means that I had to use current ones.Out of curiosity, did you apply the expected change in Elo from week 3 when calculating the spreads for week 4?
*ELO Rating - season 3 - week 2 - JuOSu - 09-21-2017
(09-21-2017, 04:16 AM)37thchamber Wrote:Out of curiosity, did you apply the expected change in Elo from week 3 when calculating the spreads for week 4?
No, I felt like it was better to just use the current ones. When making this post after the games, I will show how the spreads and percentages might have changed but the spreads for week 4 are based on week 2 ELO ratings.
*ELO Rating - season 3 - week 2 - Yurt6 - 09-21-2017
(09-21-2017, 05:58 AM)JuOSu Wrote:1340 Las Vegas Yeti - 1661 Arizona Outlaws
Unannounced relocation? :ph34r:
*ELO Rating - season 3 - week 2 - 124715 - 09-21-2017
(09-21-2017, 10:51 AM)Yurt6 Wrote:Unannounced relocation? :ph34r:Nah, just a Freudian slip.