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+---- Thread: *The DiMirio Factor (/showthread.php?tid=5125)
*The DiMirio Factor - 124715 - 10-09-2017
Hello,
I'm going to be taking a walk through the playoff picture with a little bit of a different view point, using a number I call the DiMirio factor.
The DiMirio factor is how many things need to go right for any given team to make the playoffs. In other words, the DiMirio factor is (wins by the team) + (losses by the competing team) needed for the team to clinch a playoff spot. If a team's DiMirio factor is greater than the number of remaining games, they are not in control of their destiny. If a team's DiMirio factor is 0, they have clinched a playoff spot. If a team's DiMirio factor is less than twice the number of remaining games, they are eliminated. Without further ado, here are the numbers.
Eliminated
Colorado Yeti
Record: 2-10
Point Differential: -217
Conference rank: 4th
Competing team: Yellowknife Wraiths
DiMirio factor: 7
After losing their starting QB, Logan Noble, for the season, the Yeti grabbed Nicholas Pierno and prepared for a rebuild, trading away their star players to bulk up on this year's draft. They have been eliminated from the playoffs, as evidenced by their DiMirio factor of 7. Here's how it was calculated:
: 2-10 5-7If the Yeti won three more games and the Wraiths lost three, the two teams would be tied. But since we need more than a tie, the Yeti would have to win one more, or the Wraiths would have to lose one more, putting the Yeti's DiMirio factor at 7.
Las Vegas Legion
Record: 2-10
Point Differential: -163
Conference rank: 4th
Competing team: San Jose Sabercats
DiMirio factor: 6
The Legion were bad last year and are bad this year. However, they're getting a star CB soon who will shore up their questionable secondary. They are last in their conference, behind the 5-6-1 Sabercats. Their DiMirio factor is 6 as follows:
2-10 5-6-1If the Legion win 3 and the 'Cats lose three, the Legion will have a better record. If the Legion only wins two, or if the Cats only lose two, San Jose still has a better record.
Please note that both of the scenarios above are, obviously, fictional. Calculations involving extra games are simply for the purpose of explaining the DiMirio factor for that team.
On the bubble
San Jose SaberCats
Record: 5-6-1
Point Differential: -1
Conference rank: 3rd
Competing team: Orange County Otters
DiMirio factor: 4
The SaberCats are not in control of their own destiny and need a straight-up miracle to make the playoffs, where they'd have to beat the Outlaws and the Otters would have to lose to the Wraiths at home. Thus their DiMirio factor is 4:
5-6-1 7-5If the Otters lose out, they'd end up at 7-7. If the 'cats won out, they'd finish at 7-6-1, good enough for the ASFC second seed. However, one less Otters loss, or one less Sabercats win would result in the Otters having a half-game lead over San Jose, thus their DiMirio factor is 4.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Record: 5-7
Point Differential: +5
Conference rank: 3rd
Competing Team: Philadelphia Liberty
DiMirio factor: 4
The Wraiths are also in a tough spot here. Despite a narrowly positive point differential, they find themselves needing 4 things to go right in order to qualify for playoffs. The powerful offense that was envisioned before the season fell short and was overshadowed by Orange County, leaving them in this situation:
5-7 6-5-1Wraiths need to win both, and Lib need to lose both, in order for Yellowknife to earn a 1/2 game lead over Philly. This will be hard to do, requiring that the Wraiths beat the Otters on the road, and that the Liberty fall to the Yeti at home.
In the hunt
Philadelphia Liberty
Record: 6-5-1
Point Differential: -20
Conference Rank: 2
Competing Team: Yellowknife Wraiths
DiMirio factor: 1
The Liberty, despite an unimpressive -20 point diff, need only one win or one Wraiths loss to clinch the team's first ever playoff berth. Doing so will be easy, with the Liberty hosting the Yeti Week 13. We see their DiMirio factor like this:
6-5-1 5-7If the wraiths lose just one, the Liberty will immediately clinch a spot, because they have 5.5 losses, and if the wraiths lose one, they'd have 8. So the Liberty losing out would still give them a better record than Yellowknife.
In addition, the Liberty winning just one would put their win total at 7.5, which is impossible for the Wraiths to surmount.
Orange County Otters
Record: 7-5
Point Differential: +131
Conference Rank: 2
Competing team: San Jose Sabercats
DiMirio factor: 1
The Otters have been great this season and look for one last win to clinch a playoff spot.
7-5 5-6-1Just one Otters win will raise their season total to 8 wins, and since San Jose has 5.5, the two games remaining would not allow the 'cats to beat out Orange County. In addition, the 'cats losing just one would give put them at 1.5 GB with only one game to play. So in addition to the Otters winning just one, a San Jose loss would also do the trick, and as the 'cats play the Outlaws and the Otters host the Wraiths, it could easily happen very soon.
Clinched
Baltimore Hawks
Record: 9-3
Point Differential: +66
Conference Rank: 1
Competing team: Philadelphia Liberty
DiMirio Factor: 0
The Hawks have exceeded all expectations this year. Despite their mediocre point differential, they sit comfortably at the top of the NSFC. It's a good thing they've locked up a postseason berth, because the rest of their season is brutal. Since they've clinched a playoff spot, the "competing team" designation is only to justify the DiMirio factor:
9-3 6-5-1Even if the Hawks lose both their games (very likely) and the Liberty win both their games (very likely), the Hawks would still hold a .5 game advantage (PESKY TIES!) over the Liberty, with the final records being as follows:
9-5 8-5-1Because of this, their DiMirio factor is zero, as they don't need anything to go right, and they have clinched a playoff spot.
Arizona Outlaws
Record: 11-1
Point Differential: +199
Conference Rank: 1
Competing Team: Orange County Otters
DiMirio factor: 0
Death, taxes, and Outlaws dominance. The Hawks pulled off a gritty upset in the desert last week, but the Outlaws are still the cream of the crop in this league. It's no surprise that they've clinched a spot:
11-1 7-5It's easy to see that the Outlaws, even if they lose out (to 11-3) would still hold a better record than the Otters, who's best possible outcome is 9-5.
I hope you enjoyed this article! Look for it to start back up again when S4 playoff scenarios start to emerge!
Code:
1161 wordsGRADED
*The DiMirio Factor - 7hawk77 - 10-09-2017
Fantastic breakdown of the play-off situation.
*The DiMirio Factor - iamslm22 - 10-09-2017
Great read! I think it would have been a tad more interesting a week or two ago obviously since the playoffs are essentially set.
One question I have is about the Hawks. Obviously we have out performed our PD, but we have the third best PD in the league by a mile (61 more than the fourth place Wraiths) do you think that's mediocre?
*The DiMirio Factor - 124715 - 10-09-2017
(10-09-2017, 12:52 PM)iamslm22 Wrote:Great read! I think it would have been a tad more interesting a week or two ago obviously since the playoffs are essentially set.
One question I have is about the Hawks. Obviously we have out performed our PD, but we have the third best PD in the league by a mile (61 more than the fourth place Wraiths) do you think that's mediocre?
I mean in relation to your record, sorry if that was unclear! Your record is quite good, and your PD doesn't show it fully
oh yeah and I wish i'd done it two weeks ago :/
(10-09-2017, 12:37 PM)7hawk77 Wrote:Fantastic breakdown of the play-off situation.
Thank you!
*The DiMirio Factor - PDXBaller - 10-09-2017
We should use the DiMirio Factor for everything!