*Regression Pt. 2 - Printable Version

*Regression Pt. 2 - Printable Version

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*Regression Pt. 2 - sapp2013 - 01-04-2018

So there was this. and I did this a while ago. and there has been a lot of discussion lateley about regression as that is coming up really soon (s6/s7/s8?). So we need to ramp up the discussion once again. I did not realize that the values given in the NSFL Rulebook were to be deducted each season instead of just deducting from the total earned throughout the career of the player.

Correct way: 1,000 TPE - 15% = 850 TPE +150 TPE earned = 1,000 - 20% = 800 TPE

Incorrect way: 1,000 TPE - 15% = 850 TPE || 1,000 +150 TPE earned = 1,150 - 20% = 920

so now that we got that out of the way, let me post my ideas, but following the correct rules.

[div align=\\\"center\\\"]
The colors show where the best players are. obviously the higher TPE earners will be the best and have a longer potential career at high levels. the boxes show all the years where you finish at or above 800 TPE, which I am considering part of "The Prime" of a players career. on the left side I moved the box over so you could see easier what years are in that players career. 200 is the max TPE possible to earn according to a message I received from ballerstorm (admin) like 4 months ago. I would assume most max TPE players would be closer to 185 TPE, but I wanted to cover those who are perfect earners or know how to get past the MOD logs.

Original:
[Image: jeUMvdQ.png?1]

Linear:

Ramp:

Steps:

Gradual Steps:
[Image: gfNLISh.png?1]

Walls:

[/div]

yes, these are the same names as before, but I wanted consistency and to get my point across. What we have (Original) has us in our prime way too late. Also, it is way too fucking late, so I will leave this to you guys to discuss. If you want me to explain them, I will come back later and do so.

now tagging the people who care about this (those who posted in other discussions:
@Bwestfield
@ItsJustBarry
@timeconsumer
@White Cornerback
@AdamS
@37thchamber
@HalfEatenOnionBagel
@kckolbe

GRADED

*Regression Pt. 2 - kckolbe - 01-04-2018

Looks like I am at about 180/yr. By that graph, I will hit my prime year 7 (which makes sense), then basically stay the same for 2 years before gradually declining.

However, what's really messed up is folks who joined S5 or later, as they get a full free season of earning before being drafted. For those folks, they can spend well over half their careers over 1000 TPE.

I still maintain that my biggest complaint is that your regression % changes every OTHER season as opposed to every season. I think once you begin declining it should get worse every year.

*Regression Pt. 2 - HalfEatenOnionBagel - 01-04-2018

(01-04-2018, 10:48 AM)kckolbe Wrote:I still maintain that my biggest complaint is that your regression % changes every OTHER season as opposed to every season. I think once you begin declining it should get worse every year.

This is my biggest complaint as well. It just doesn't seem to make sense in terms of what the regression system is for

*Regression Pt. 2 - timeconsumer - 01-04-2018

The simple question to ask is: How long do we want a player's career to be? We need to know this before we settle on a method to achieve that goal.

I have done similar exercises for other methods and my personal favorite is:

S7: 10%
S8: 20%
S9: 30%
S10: 40%
S11: 50%
S12: 60%
S13: 70%
...

Your hypothetical 185 earner would spend 5 years above 800 and 2 years in the high 700s. At 787 at the end of S10, 578 at the end of S11.

*Regression Pt. 2 - 37thchamber - 01-04-2018

(01-04-2018, 05:11 PM)timeconsumer Wrote:The simple question to ask is: How long do we want a player's career to be? We need to know this before we settle on a method to achieve that goal.

This. Really, it's just a case of saying "a moderately active player should have a career of x seasons" and then working from there.

The initial regression template seems to suggest a moderately active player (let's say 125 TPE/season for argument's sake) would probably have something approaching a 15 year career, which seems a bit long imo

I know some people are talking about how certain positions should regress at different rates etc but since we all gain TPE at the same rate, that doesn't seem to make much sense to me.