*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - Printable Version

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - Printable Version

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*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - manicmav36 - 01-16-2018

As a running back, I was always bothered by the incredibly low yards per carry across the league. The league leader in yards per carry last season (with over 100 carries) was only 3.6 YPC, a number that would surely get you benched in the NFL. It has also become increasingly clear that in order to suceed in the NSFL your team must focus on the pass, as run focused teams have historically finished very poorly. Below are some stats that I found pretty eye-opening.

[Image: F7PIFsO.png]

So, first thing’s first, we need our baseline. For the sake of comparison, the easiest baseline is to use the 2017 season of NFL. Depending on who you ask, the NSFL is either a league below, or just outright replaced the NFL in terms of skill level. In actuality, it’s the only real-world comparison we can make with readily available statistics. The major takeaways here are the attempts per game, yards per game, and yards per attempt for both rushing and passing. On average, an NFL team runs 60 offensive plays a game, with 45% being run plays and 55% being pass plays.

[Image: 3IxRt1x.png]

Next, we have the same stats, but for the current season of the NSFL. The number of rushing attempts is 11% lower when compared to the NFL, but more shockingly would be the difference in yards per game and yards per attempt. The NSFL averages 30 less yards per game (27% difference) while also averaging .75 less yards per carry (18% difference). While not the biggest difference percentage wise, the yards per carry difference should be the most alarming. At ¾ of a yard less, the changes this causes to the league are significant. A 3.34 YPC average means that if teams want to run for ball movement, any delineation from the average makes getting first down almost impossible. With running being far less effective, teams rely on passing to do most of the heavy lifting with running relegated to mainly a goal-line role, and a way to keep defenses somewhat honest, for most teams. On average, NSFL teams attempt 8 more passes (24% difference) for 95 more yards per game (42% difference). On average, an NSFL team runs 65 plays, with 37% being run plays and 63% being pass plays. This number is worse than it looks as the LEAST balanced offense in the NFL was the Miami Dolphins, who (according to PFF) ran 37.4% run plays and 62.6% pass plays. Essentially, the average NSFL team is MORE UNBALANCED than the LEAST BALANCED offense in the NFL.

[Image: t0kdpdT.png]

Not to pick on the Yeti, but I had to include statistics without them as they are a statistical outlier in nearly every category. Without the Yeti offense in to skew the averages (they’ve run 63.5% and passed 36.5% of the time) the number are absolutely out of control. The number of rushing attempts drops by 3 more to make it a 22% difference and 37 less yards to make it a nearly 34% difference (both when compared to the NFL). However, the yards per carry did improve slightly, to .68 YPC less than the NFL average. The gap in passing attempts widens by another 2 (30% difference) and yards take a jump to 343 yards per game (a MASSIVE 119 yards or 53% increase when compared to the NFL).

Clearly, the unbalanced nature of the offenses in the NSFL is something we should consider addressing in the offseason. A few things really stand out to me, the nearly 20% difference in YP when compared to the NFL is eye-opening. However, this statement, “Essentially, the average NSFL team is MORE UNBALANCED than the LEAST BALANCED offense in the NFL.”, is the most shocking to me. I think the best way would be a slight bump in yards per carry, with a league wide average of 4 YPC seeming to be the sweet spot.

EDIT: I understand that most teams will be pass heavy as this is a player driven league and there are more receivers than running backs. However, as it stands, running is not a viable option for an offense. When a guy like Boss Tweed, who has the 2nd most TPE of any player in the NSFL is averaging 2.9 YPC, there's clearly something wrong.

GRADED

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - ItsJustBarry - 01-16-2018

As a wide receiver, I love the "pass first, pass often" mentality.

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - bovovovo - 01-16-2018

This is really awesome, good stuff

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - 37thchamber - 01-16-2018

And this is only looking at the numbers with the OL bots in place, right?

If so that's... pretty f'n wild.

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - manicmav36 - 01-16-2018

(01-16-2018, 07:49 PM)37thchamber Wrote:And this is only looking at the numbers with the OL bots in place, right?

If so that's... pretty f'n wild.

Yep, just this season. It would be much worse other seasons, especially before the bots came into play.

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - SwagSloth - 01-16-2018

Excellent post. I would be in favor of scaling back passing and up rushing. Not even for personal reasons, just to balance it out better.

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - sapp2013 - 01-16-2018

Great stuff! Just a note, if you remove the yeti, you might want to remove the last 4 NFL teams that would be similar to the yeti (i.e. highest run % or whatever you used) so that you are still using 7/8 of the teams.

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - manicmav36 - 01-16-2018

(01-16-2018, 08:24 PM)sapp2013 Wrote:Great stuff! Just a note, if you remove the yeti, you might want to remove the last 4 NFL teams that would be similar to the yeti (i.e. highest run % or whatever you used) so that you are still using 7/8 of the teams.

Yeah, that's actually something I considered. The thing that kept me from doing so was how incredibly run heavy the Yeti are, it completely skews everything. That's the only reason I singled them out. There's only 1 team in the NFL that had a higher instance of running than passing (the Bills), and it was 50.57% run, 49.43% pass. The next closest was the Jaguars, who were exactly 50/50 split on the season.

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - timeconsumer - 01-16-2018

It's something the sim balance team or whatever you call us have run numerous tests on and have a plan on how to fix it that will be submitted to HO before next offseason. However, and this is only my personal thought, with the possibility of switching sims to '18 I do not know if any major overhauls will happen before we understand the new sim better.

*NSFL vs NFL Offenses - Battleborn - 01-16-2018

Now would the QBs be something of a variable also? The ability of the QB to throw an accurate ball, on time, should also be something to take into account. Just because a ball is statistically "catchable" doesn't necessarily mean it was a good throw. Obviously, for simulated games, this isn't a variable we can see, but when correlating to the top NFL teams with the fewest drops, are those team's QB the league's best? If so, we could make an assumption for the NSFL, the QBs matter to the WRs and can make a difference in drop rates.