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According to my Calculations - timeconsumer - 05-29-2017
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]According to my Calculations[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]An Analytical Look At Football[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]By: Linus Scrimmage[/div]
This article represents the first in what I hope to be a sorta-weekly series where we look at football data from a (slightly) analytical point of view. I am no statistician, nor do I want to bore people with overly complex analyses so I prefer to keep it simple. With that being said, let's dive into our first discussion.
There has been significant discussion this week on where quarterbacks will fall in this year's draft class. As this is the inaugural year of the NSFL we have no data at all on how past prospects have panned out over their careers. For this reason I have decided to take statistics from the NFL drafts of the past to determine if a team is more likely to get a franchise quarterback by spending an early pick.
I chose the draft classes between 2003 and 2014. I decided on these years because anything more recent I don't believe the quarterbacks have had enough time to show longevity, and because I didn't want to go back any further due to laziness. I grouped quarterbacks by what round they were drafted in, and whether or not they ended up as a franchise quarterback, I considered the minimum for a franchise quarterback to be a Jay Cutler/Alex Smith type. Because that's not subjective or anything. I also separated out whether or not a quarterback was a 1st overall pick.
I would also like to point out this doesn't analyze where the best QBs came from. Only whether or not a quarterback is good enough to be a franchise guy.
1st quarterback picked in the draft between 2003 and 2014: Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer.
-I decided to successes here were: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer for a success rate of 66%. Not bad.
All 1st rounders that weren't first off the board: 6/23 or 26% success rate (Tannehill, Flacco, Cutler, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger).
2nd round QBs 2003-2014: 2/13 or 15% success rate (Dalton and Carr). Notable others are Kaep and Garoppolo, who are decent QBs but have not shown the longevity and staying power as a franchise starting QB so I excluded them.
3rd round QBs: 2/15 or 13% success rate. (Russell Wilson and Matt Schaub) Again arguable if you want to consider Mike Glennon, or Matt Schaub a success, I went with Schaub as a yes considering he had a decent stretch in Houston before his foot fell off.
4th round QBs: 1/15 or 7% success rate (Kirk Cousins). No other notables here.
5th round: 0/21 or 0% success rate in case you needed me to calculate that for you.
6th round: 1/27, 4% success rate (Giving Tyrod some love here)
7th round: 0/25 or 0% success rate Other notables here were Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not bad considering the bargain round but overall not franchise guys to me.
Overall success rate for ALL QBs that weren't the 1st QB off the board: 12/142 or 8%.
It's quite apparent to me that really the 1st quarterback selected is significantly a better shot at a success than anyone else with a significantly higher rate of success over the 12 year period in this analysis. I believe this points to the wisdom of the crowd. It's more likely that the really consensus #1 QB is usually going to be a hit as he has passed the scrutiny of several scouting departments.
So, how does this translate to the NSFL? How will it affect team draft strategies? No idea, but it was fun to look at.
Feel free to discuss, argue, or elaborate on any point as you like.
Code:
Ready for grading (week 2 submission). Somewhere around 600-700 words.According to my Calculations - Molarpistols - 05-29-2017
This is pretty cool! I like analytics. As a Ravens fan it made me happy not only to have Flacco listed as a success by their former backup Tyrod as well. I've always kind of wanted to do posts like these, but I'm waaaaaaaaaaaay too lazy to go through all the work. Good job!
A helpful hint for posters (to help graders) with word-count: Below the smilies box (on desktop site) there is a button "check post length" that will count the words for you, and then you can add it in the post!
According to my Calculations - timeconsumer - 05-29-2017
(05-29-2017, 12:15 PM)Molarpistols Wrote:This is pretty cool! I like analytics. As a Ravens fan it made me happy not only to have Flacco listed as a success by their former backup Tyrod as well. I've always kind of wanted to do posts like these, but I'm waaaaaaaaaaaay too lazy to go through all the work. Good job!
A helpful hint for posters (to help graders) with word-count: Below the smilies box (on desktop site) there is a button "check post length" that will count the words for you, and then you can add it in the post!
Glad you like it! I definitely feel Flacco is a successful franchise QB and it would be hard to argue he isn't. Whether or not he deserved that big post-superbowl contract is a whole other discussion though (I think it really hurt the team).
As far as word count, it's definitely more than 600 and less than 700. So that should be enough. And I'm really not that worried about the $$, I just wanted to share a bit of fun info.
According to my Calculations - Anti-Hype - 05-29-2017
Great read! I really like all of this pre draft hype and all of the different perspectives and analysis.
PS: I wish Cuter was a Franchise QB...Ill bet Glennon will preform as well if not better than him this season.-Disgruntled Bears Fan.
According to my Calculations - Jogn - 05-29-2017
I'm going to be really interested to see how the logic of the game changes how people approach drafting. For example, QB isn't really a premium position because 4/6 teams already have one, so unless the Hawks and Outlaws see one of the QB prospects as just SO good that they can't help but snatch them up, they could easily wait a few rounds and build out the rest of the roster. Plus, the only limitation of a player is how often they post, so you don't have to worry about ironing out, for example, Patrick Mahomes' instincts to throw it deep when in doubt.
According to my Calculations - timeconsumer - 05-29-2017
(05-29-2017, 02:13 PM)Jogn Wrote:I'm going to be really interested to see how the logic of the game changes how people approach drafting. For example, QB isn't really a premium position because 4/6 teams already have one, so unless the Hawks and Outlaws see one of the QB prospects as just SO good that they can't help but snatch them up, they could easily wait a few rounds and build out the rest of the roster. Plus, the only limitation of a player is how often they post, so you don't have to worry about ironing out, for example, Patrick Mahomes' instincts to throw it deep when in doubt.
Agreed on all points. I just had this analysis sitting in a spreadsheet from a few weeks ago when I got into an argument with a friend about the Bear's decision to draft Mr. Biscuit. So I wrote it up and tossed it out here because I figured people might find it interesting. It likely won't translate to NSFL well but I do think it has some indications that a top consensus draft pick hits more often than not.
According to my Calculations - Jogn - 05-29-2017
(05-29-2017, 11:21 AM)timeconsumer Wrote:Agreed on all points. I just had this analysis sitting in a spreadsheet from a few weeks ago when I got into an argument with a friend about the Bear's decision to draft Mr. Biscuit. So I wrote it up and tossed it out here because I figured people might find it interesting. It likely won't translate to NSFL well but I do think it has some indications that a top consensus draft pick hits more often than not.
I hear you. I've had a few arguments with my football watching mates about the trade up - I don't think 2 3rds and a 4th is that much to give up if you even end up with a guy that can start 12 or so games and not be a complete liability.