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+---- Thread: *Penalties (/showthread.php?tid=7867)
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*Penalties - manicmav36 - 03-12-2018
Last season I remember thinking to myself, “We (the Hawks) always seem to get penalized far more than our opponent. The sim hates us.” I assumed it was just conformational bias and probably not true, but I HAD to look into it further. This is what I learned.
I went through the box scores of each game in S5 to find not only the number of penalties, but also the number of yards, and whether there was a difference between home and away teams, as the away team always seemed to get the shaft when it came to penalties. The first table is number of penalties, while the second is number of yards. Black numbers are home games, red numbers are away games. (It's also worth mentioning that I'm very daft and couldn't figure out how to change the axis labels.)
Therefore:
1 = Baltimore
2 = YK
3 = Philly
4 = CO
5 = OC
6 = AZ
7 = LV
8 = SJ
![[Image: nYV5PhW.png]](https://i.imgur.com/nYV5PhW.png)
![[Image: SipNCn1.png]](https://i.imgur.com/SipNCn1.png)
![[Image: mJNUU5l.png]](https://i.imgur.com/mJNUU5l.png)
Much to my surprise, most teams were fairly close, but there seemed to be two tiers in the numbers. The top five teams, Colorado, San Jose, OC, Baltimore, and Philly all averaged more than 5.1 penalties a game. Whereas the bottom three, Arizona, Yellowknife, and Las Vegas, all averaged less than 4.6 a game, with Las Vegas averaging only 3.8 penalties per game (30% less than league leading Colorado). Unsurprisingly, the away team does in fact have more penalties called on them per game, with the away team averaging roughly 2 more penalties per game. I also found the difference in home vs away penalties pretty interesting. Two teams, the Liberty and the Hawks averaged nearly 4 more penalties when away, while two teams, Colorado and Yellowknife, averaged less than 1 penalty difference when looking at home vs away. Yellowknife was astonishingly even, averaging only .14 more away penalties per game than home penalties, or only 1 more away penalty over the course of the entire season.
![[Image: v86FjoY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/v86FjoY.png)
![[Image: ZJfCXvK.png]](https://i.imgur.com/ZJfCXvK.png)
When looking at yardage, unsurprisingly, there is a fairly direct correlation between number of penalties and penalty yards, with a few minor changes. When it come to penalty yards per game, the league average was 38. Three teams, OC, Colorado, and Baltimore were all significantly above that, while Yellowknife and Las Vegas were significantly below. Philadelphia, while still below the average, were only 1 yard off and is by far the closest team to the league average. Although I so badly wanted be able to show a correlation between penalty yards and wins, Orange County and Laz Vegas completely destroy that notion, as OC was the most penalized team yet won the most games, and Las Vegas was the least penalized team, and won the least games. The obvious conclusion would be that there is actually a negative correlation between penalty yards and wins, but the second most/least penalized teams destroy that was well, as Colorado (2nd least wins) was the second most penalized, and Yellowknife (2nd most wins) was the 2nd least penalized. It seems safe to say that there is little to no correlation on penalty yards and wins, at least when looking at season 5.
![[Image: 3tdPGPC.png]](https://i.imgur.com/3tdPGPC.png)
The average penalty in S5 of the NSFL was roughly 8 yards, with only 2 teams scoring above that, the Baltimore Hawks averaged 8.5 yards per penalty, while the Orange County Otters averaged 8.4. The Philadelphia Liberty were the lowest at 7.4 yards per penalty.
![[Image: InIcQyQ.png]](https://i.imgur.com/InIcQyQ.png)
Yet again, the difference between home and away yardage is significant, with the home team averaging roughly 30 yards in penalties, while the away team averages roughly 47 yards per game, making for a 17 yard difference. Two teams in the league were far above that average difference, the Baltimore Hawks had a difference of 26.6 yards (a 9.6 yard difference) and the Philadelphia Liberty at 26.0 yards (a 9.0 yard difference). On the other hand, two teams were far below the 17 yard difference, with San Jose averaging only 8 more penalty yards when away, while the Yellowknife Wraiths have the distinction of being the only team to average more penalty yards as the home team, at roughly 1 more penalty yard per game vs away.
![[Image: 9squSsP.png]](https://i.imgur.com/9squSsP.png)
Above is everything I talked about in a handy-dandy ranking table. I know it doesn't mean much without numbers, but it shows general trends like Yellowknife clearly throwing some money towards the refs, or that the league really wants Colorado to fail. If you have any questions or there’s anything that I botched, please feel free to let me know below.
*Penalties - bovovovo - 03-12-2018
Really cool work. I/we knew that penalties was one of the ways the sim accounts for home field advantage, but it's really cool to see the numbers behind it at least in just one season.
*Penalties - sapp2013 - 03-12-2018
(03-12-2018, 11:41 AM)manicmav36 Wrote:I know it doesn't mean much without numbers, but it shows general trends like Yellowknife clearly throwing some money towards the refs, or that the league really wants Colorado to fail.
Thank God I am not the only crazy one.
*Penalties - Bzerkap - 03-12-2018
Could you break down the penalties attributed to OL? We always give our bot OL 70 intelligence where I see a lot of other teams don't invest any TPE into it
*Penalties - manicmav36 - 03-12-2018
(03-12-2018, 02:21 PM)Bzerkap Wrote:Could you break down the penalties attributed to OL? We always give our bot OL 70 intelligence where I see a lot of other teams don't invest any TPE into it
Not without running through the play-by-play for each game. I don't have that kind of time right now unfortunately, it took me about 3 weeks of on and off work to finish this guy. Remond me in the summer.
*Penalties - timeconsumer - 03-12-2018
(03-12-2018, 04:01 PM)manicmav36 Wrote:Not without running through the play-by-play for each game. I don't have that kind of time right now unfortunately, it took me about 3 weeks of on and off work to finish this guy. Remond me in the summer.
I can get you an extract for it.
*Penalties - manicmav36 - 03-12-2018
(03-12-2018, 03:04 PM)timeconsumer Wrote:I can get you an extract for it.
Which is what exactly?
*Penalties - timeconsumer - 03-12-2018
(03-12-2018, 04:09 PM)manicmav36 Wrote:Which is what exactly?
Hard to explain. About 15 spreadsheets that contain anything you could possibly want to know from our league including penalties, penalty yards, and # of plays run by player, by team, by season, or by career. So you could potentially isolate Penalties/Play for OL by Team to see if Bzerkap is on to something.
*Penalties - manicmav36 - 03-12-2018
(03-12-2018, 03:12 PM)timeconsumer Wrote:Hard to explain. About 15 spreadsheets that contain anything you could possibly want to know from our league including penalties, penalty yards, and # of plays run by player, by team, by season, or by career. So you could potentially isolate Penalties/Play for OL by Team to see if Bzerkap is on to something.
That sounds like it could be incredibly helpful. You are a gentleman and a scholar.
*Penalties - Bzerkap - 03-12-2018
(03-12-2018, 01:13 PM)manicmav36 Wrote:That sounds like it could be incredibly helpful. You are a gentleman and a scholar.Please do