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+---- Thread: *NSFL Playoff Picture (/showthread.php?tid=8492)
*NSFL Playoff Picture - timeconsumer - 05-01-2018
With week 9 in the books I thought I'd take some time to write my first media piece in a very long time to discuss the current playoff picture, as we have some races winding down.
For starters let's recall that 2 teams from each conference make it based upon their record. If two teams are tied the conference record is the tiebreaker. If their conference record is also tied the points scored is the third tiebreaker.
In the NSFC we currently have the Wraiths sitting at 9-0 in a comfortable lead over the 7-2 Liberty and 5-4 Hawks. In order for the Wraiths to miss the playoffs they would have to lose out and go 9-5 while the Hawks win out and go 10-4. Or they could tie records at 10-4/9-5 assuming the Wraiths lose a couple of conference games and the Hawks win enough to land that tiebreaker. Odds are that the Wraiths are in.
Next up the Liberty and Hawks are battling for that second playoff spot with the Liberty looking like the favorite here. The Hawks have 2 games against the Wraiths, and one each against Yeti, Outlaws, and Second Line. Meanwhile the Liberty have schedule with Yeti, Second Line, Sabercats, OC, and Yellowknife. A lot hinges on those two games the Hawks have against the Wraiths, which are going to be tough sledding. If they can pull off one win there they have a shot at unseating the Liberty for the second playoff slot. But the NSFC Championship game will likely be held in Yellowknife so whoever wins has arguably the roughest road to the Ultimus.
In the ASFC we seem to have fallen on hard times in what was once the powerhouse conference in prior seasons. Right now we only have Orange County sitting north of .500 and San Jose at 4-5, Arizona and New Orleans at 2-7. For OC to miss the playoffs they would have to lose out while Arizona wins out, giving them the better conference record. Even if NOLA wins out they would have the same conference record as a 7-7 OC and the points for is too strong in OC's favor.
So for the second slot we have San Jose currently the most likely but only 2 games ahead of Arizona or NOLA. With one Philly game and two Otters games left on the schedule for San Jose they have a very difficult schedule left still while Arizona's toughest game left is against the Hawks in their own stadium. I can see Arizona going 5-0 the rest of the season to close out at 7-7 assuming they play hard on the road in San Jose. In this scenario San Jose losing twice to Arizona means they would have to beat OC twice and Philly once to make the playoffs. I'm still saying it's anyone's game for that second playoff spot in the ASFC but I'm going to call it that the Sabercats make it at 7-7.
A quick word on plungers. With 5 games left in the season the Yeti are currently sitting at 0-9 and possibly staring down the grim prospect of going winless for 2 seasons in a row. That would put them at a 30 game losing streak if you go back to their last two games of S5. So can the Yeti grind out a win or two on the final stretch? Of their next 5 games the only ones I'd say they have a shot of winning are playing Arizona and the Second Line on their home turf in Colorado. The homefield advantage gives them a fighting chance. I give it a 50% chance they win one game, 25% they win 2 games, and 25% chance they go winless.
*NSFL Playoff Picture - kckolbe - 05-01-2018
Not sure how much of this is Kool-Aid, but I think the Liberty win the conference. The Wraiths will likely lose 3 of their next 5 (@OC, @BAL, @PHI), while the Liberty only lose 1 (@OC). In that case, PHI and YKW would have the same record and conference record, and the Wraiths have only an 11 point lead in points scored. Considering the difference in defenses remaining, I think Philly can easily make up those points in the coming games, taking HFA in the first round of the playoffs.
*NSFL Playoff Picture - timeconsumer - 05-01-2018
(05-01-2018, 12:27 PM)kckolbe Wrote:Not sure how much of this is Kool-Aid, but I think the Liberty win the conference. The Wraiths will likely lose 3 of their next 5 (@OC, @BAL, @PHI), while the Liberty only lose 1 (@OC). In that case, PHI and YKW would have the same record and conference record, and the Wraiths have only an 11 point lead in points scored. Considering the difference in defenses remaining, I think Philly can easily make up those points in the coming games, taking HFA in the first round of the playoffs.
It's a decent amount of Kool-Aid. I've run a good 10 close of season test sims and Liberty usually end up 10-4.
*NSFL Playoff Picture - Beaver - 05-01-2018
Plunger plunger plunger
*NSFL Playoff Picture - kckolbe - 05-01-2018
(05-01-2018, 09:40 AM)timeconsumer Wrote:It's a decent amount of Kool-Aid. I've run a good 10 close of season test sims and Liberty usually end up 10-4.
It's SJS, isn't it? I was counting the road game there as a win (since BAL and YKW won there), but I could see it as a loss.
*NSFL Playoff Picture - timeconsumer - 05-01-2018
(05-01-2018, 02:14 PM)kckolbe Wrote:It's SJS, isn't it? I was counting the road game there as a win (since BAL and YKW won there), but I could see it as a loss.
Or the Wraiths, you usually drop one of the two
*NSFL Playoff Picture - 124715 - 05-01-2018
(05-01-2018, 12:27 PM)kckolbe Wrote:Not sure how much of this is Kool-Aid, but I think the Liberty win the conference. The Wraiths will likely lose 3 of their next 5 (@OC, @BAL, @PHI), while the Liberty only lose 1 (@OC). In that case, PHI and YKW would have the same record and conference record, and the Wraiths have only an 11 point lead in points scored. Considering the difference in defenses remaining, I think Philly can easily make up those points in the coming games, taking HFA in the first round of the playoffs.
This reasoning seems hard to fault, athough I am also drinking said Kool-Aid. Wraiths got a cakewalk schedule to start.