[DEV] ISFL Forums
*The NSFL Depth Chart - CB Edition - Printable Version

+- [DEV] ISFL Forums (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums)
+-- Forum: Community (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Statistical Analysis (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=153)
+---- Thread: *The NSFL Depth Chart - CB Edition (/showthread.php?tid=9997)

*The NSFL Depth Chart - CB Edition - majesiu - 08-17-2018

And finally my own, beloved Cornerback position. The whole series idea kind of started as another rant about CBs and how this position and slowly but surely dying, but thankfully even I got fed up with my whining and decided to do something more useful. Thus I focused on other positions first and came back to evaluate CBs more level headed with the ready template. Similarly to Safeties, we assume each team needs two cornerbacks.

Plan of releases:
1. 8/14 - K/P
2. 8/15 - QB
3. 8/15 - RB
4. 8/16 - DE/DE
5. 8/16 - LB
6. 8/17 - S
7. 8/17 - CB
8. 8/18 - WR/TE
9. 8/18 - League-wide picture and further analysis

All values used were based on the last update of the regular season (not the playoffs one, to give all teams equal chance). Quite possible this will become a seasonal thing if there will be interest in it.

A. Current Overview

1. YKW [S2] - Dermot Lavelle 1227 TPE
2. NOLA [S3] - Benson Bayley 1070 TPE
3. COL [S5] - Andre Bly Jr. 975 TPE
4. OCO [S2] - Marc Spector 814 TPE
5. BAL [S1] - Antoine Delacour 711 TPE
6. NOLA [S7] - Vladimir Fyodorovich 640 TPE
7. OCO [S3] - Jonathan King 577 TPE
8. BAL [S5] - Gregory Fletcher 543 TPE
9. BAL [S2] - Darnell Turner 492 TPE
10. BAL [S3] - Clifford Rove 482 TPE
11. SJS [S5] - Terrell Brister 338 TPE
12. YKW [S3] - Samuel Zhang 333 TPE
13. SJS [S1] - John Canton 330 TPE
14. SJS [S1] - Alex Hayden 299 TPE
15. POR [S10] - Lucari Felix 195 TPE
16. COL [S7] - Desta Danger 183 TPE

You can quickly see that other than Top 3 being really developed CBs lack the depth of Safeties and are closer to the dreaded DT status in that aspect. Anyway, that Top 3 is really remarkable with 3 top players in S2 class Dermot Lavelle, S3 Benson Bayley, and S5 Andre Bly Jr. Rest of Top 3 - Marc Spector & Antoine Delacour just retired and S10 will be their last. Terrel Brister also ended his career.

So I hope you won't mind, but I will do a bit more detailed take with my own position why I think it might be the most needed soon:
If we go by NSFL ready measure of 250+ TPE and account players that retired this season than at the start of S11 we are going to have following cornerbacks:
~ [S5] - Andre Bly Jr. 1150 TPE
~ [S7] - Vladimir Fyodorovich 850 TPE
~ [S3] - Benson Bayley 800 TPE
~ [S2] - Dermot Lavelle 775 TPE
~ [S5] - Gregory Fletcher 543 TPE
~ [S3] - Jonathan King 400 TPE
~ [S3] - Clifford Rove 275 TPE
~ [S2] - Darnell Turner 250 TPE
Zhang, Canton, and Hayden almost auto retired

So basically 4 near maxed players and then 4 serviceable replacement level players. Enough to man 4 teams, but not even nearly enough to current 8 team league size.
This is not including S10 prospects (S8/9 are non-existing anyway), but even optimistic projections of three of them developing into NSFL ready talents leaves 5 more spots open in the S11 season to be played either by very low TPE+ or out of position players.

[Image: 6HtpexS.png]
Blue - Sum of TPE in that regression class, red - a number of players, yellow - average TPE in that class.

[Image: 7mtAg14.png]

Outside of the top tier and some decent players in S2/3/5 rest of it doesn't look so good though - in S6-S9 span there is only 1 player with over 200 TPE - myself - Vladimir Fyodorovich (which also might change soon enough). Thankfully position wasn't too reliant on S1, to begin with, so just two/three decent prospects a year from now on should help in stabilizing the position, though the process has to start now and some down years in S11/S12 are to be expected.

B. Team Needs and Prospects Breakdown
Each team will receive a current grade (1-10 scale), based on average TPE of players manning the position (1 - ~50 TPE, 2 ~100 TPE, 3 ~200 TPE). Next grade - future grade - is more subjective since I also tried to estimate regression impact and current prospects in the system - 10 would mean a team has a serviceable player that could last up to 8 more seasons in that position, whole 1 means they have to draft/sign a player asap in that position. It's obviously a bit more complicated since activity also matters here and the more base TPE player currently has the longer he can fight regression.
Since it's much harder to get all players on top earning level I adjusted grades, so required averages for each grade are lower than in case of RB/QB so far.

Current Grade / Future Grade
NOLA 10/9
YKW 9/5
OCO 9/5
COL 8/6
BAL 8/5
SJS 5/4
PHI 3/1
ARI 0/0 (They have huge and good safety corps though, so take it with grain of salt)

Prospects Watch (Interesting S9-S11 players):
1. POR [S10] - Lucari Felix 195 TPE
2. TIJ [S10] - Xandra Troyski 135 TPE
3. COL [S9] - Oskar Ludvig 130 TPE
4. KCC [S10] - Jake Verden 100 TPE
5. SJS [S9] - Daquan Richardson 77 TPE

Not gaudy numbers but as mentioned CBs doesn't even need more than two good prospects a year to fully man NSFL corners (duh) and Safeties can play this position as effectively. Felix seems like a surefire 1st round talent being a top earner and positional need (every not doot doot team should try to acquire active Cornerback), but even Troyski and Verden might be found quite high on the draft boards.
Future should a bit brighter in S11/12 and further since I heard numerous reports about high earning players (including current GMs) willing to recreate and play CB position.

And to wrap this up quick values showing how many TPE you need to break into any NSFL team roster, how many decent NSFL players are on the team rosters currently and how many good prospects are in the pipeline.
TPE to break into the NSFL Roster: 184
Current NSFL ready (250+) players: 14
Prospects (S8 200+ TPE, S9 150+, S10 100+): 3

*The NSFL Depth Chart - CB Edition - Moosecop - 08-17-2018

We have the best CBs, what do you mean?

*The NSFL Depth Chart - CB Edition - bovovovo - 08-17-2018

Yep this is a position I think we will see some serious scarcity in in the future

*The NSFL Depth Chart - CB Edition - Beaver - 08-17-2018

Oof no wonder so many GMs, league officials, and such are talking about recreating as corners.

*The NSFL Depth Chart - CB Edition - run_CMC - 08-17-2018

(08-17-2018, 08:25 PM)Moosecop Wrote:We have the best CBs, what do you mean?
Why have cornerbacks when you can let them make the catch then have your stud safeties peanut punch it out

:head tap meme: