Weekly QB Update
Completions:
Showbiz: 100
Fitzptatrick: 87
After 4 games, both QBs lost exactly 7 completions from what they had over preseason. That's mildly interesting, but it means that, proportionally, Fitzpatrick is dropping off more. Showbiz, as expected, continues to be the focus of the offense.
Passing Yards:
Showbiz: 1078
Fitzptatrick: 909
Once again, not only did both decrease, and not only does Showbiz have the lead, but he improved upon it considerably, beating Fitz by over 42 yards per game in the air. At this rate, Fitz is on pace to finish below last year's mark, which is beyond disappointing, but more on that later.
Touchdowns:
Showbiz: 7
Fitzptatrick: 8
It's tempting to go back to the narrative on red zone performance, but we are talking about one completion difference in the end zone over 4 games, not a big difference. And Arizona scored a whopping 3 more points than Orange County. I am going to leave this one be for now.
Interceptions:
Showbiz: 6
Fitzptatrick: 3
Just...how? Last year, I rationalized this by mentioning the riskier plays OC called along with Showbiz lagging behind in raw passing ability, but that isn't the case any more. Showbiz is, in fact, as able a passer as Fitz, and both teams have mixed up strategies (seemingly). Obviously, with Showbiz passing more often, more interceptions make sense, but it should be closer.
Rushing Yards:
Showbiz: 30
Fitzptatrick: 64
Definitely closer than we saw in preseason. What's interesting is that Showbiz is marginally more efficient in yards per attempt, which is surprising given that Fitz has better run blocking and is just much more mobile. However, Showbiz has fumbled twice compared to zero for Fitz, so all in all it's probably best for Showbiz to rely on the arm.
Sacks:
Showbiz: 12
Fitzptatrick: 11
This one is almost a complete non-factor. In fact, Showbiz actually has the lower sack percentage, 6.1% to 6.9%, giving him the advantage here.
TANY/A:
Showbiz: 4.2
Fitzptatrick: 5.4
As predicted, Fitz has fallen off considerably from his unsustainable preseason. Showbiz has fallen off a bit as well, though, which I certainly didn't expect.
Offensive System:
Showbiz: The best WR duo in the league (Crush and Atwell) is nothing to laugh at. Add in Josh Garden, Zephyrous splitting time between FB and TE, and Adams, who has the best hands of all RBs in the league, and there is no shortage of weapons. In addition, expect the extremely explosive Jaylon Broxton, and Showbiz can throw all day long. As for the sacks, they will decline considerably with the center being upgraded from the preseason roster. It isn’t a huge upgrade, but it should be enough to buy Showbiz the time he needs. I will say that their usage of this talent is kind of surprising, but when TC is on the other team, one tends to just assume he knows something you don't.
Fitzpatrick: Viggo Squanch stepped up his game big time from S9, and looks like he’s good enough to be the top receiver on a real offense. With Browning opposite him, Wachter dropped off the map entirely. The big advantage Fitz has is Balthazar Crindy at TE. He was very quiet last year, posting only 500 yards and 1 TD, but he will be the breakout player of the year. Thus far his receiving is on pace for last year, though as I mentioned, Fitz has passed less so far, which I do think will change.
Schedule: Both QBs have had two home and two away, and both have faced pretty comparable defenses. Honestly, I don't see much of a difference here.
Prediction: I am going to walk back a bit on preseason predictions. I am still leaning toward Showbiz on paper, but it just doesn't seem to be happening yet, and now he has to catch up before he can beat Fitz, so I am going to say about even.
Also, here is a REALLY quick bit on the other QBs.
Christ
TANY/A: 2.59
I expected a lot better. For what it's worth, some of that is due to Canton vulturing like mad (he has 24 of the team's 44 points). His worst game was Week 1 @ OC, where he amassed 100 yards on 24 passes and 2 rushes, but also lost 47 in sacks...and threw an INT with no TD for a TANY/A of 0.24. His best was Week 3 @ COL (surprising it was a road game). Despite a 0 TD, 2 INT performance, he only got sacked once, and threw for 293 yards on 46 attempts for a TANY/A of 4.1. I do think Christ will see a larger share of the points down the road, but I also think his remaining schedule is tougher.
Falconi
TANY/A: 4.18
Okay...real talk. Falconi led the Liberty in their Week 2 win. Despite Brown having been the entire offense in S10, he had only 19 carries the whole game. I really love watching her play, because she actually makes a lot of plays for a young QB. This offense will be very formidable in S12. Worst game was Week 1 hosting NOLA (obviously), with 146 yards on 36 attempts, but also 1:1 TD:INT and only one sack taken for a TANY/A of 3.08. Best game was Week 2 @SJS. 202 yards on 33 attempts, 1 TD, 0 INT for a TANY/A of 5.59.
Showbiz
TANY/A: 4.2
Fitzpatrick
TANY/A: 5.4
Pennington:
TANY/A: 5.55
Trust me when I say this honeymoon will end. His schedule has been fairly average, and he is a good QB, but he won't improve while defenses will. Additionally, his TANY/A is likely lower than you expected. The reason is sacks. With 15 taken, only Christ has more. Eventually some of that pressure (and poor hands on his receivers) will result in more interceptions.
Maximus
TANY/A: 5.91
The volume is certainly there. Maximus looks to be a fantasy darling, with over 1500 combined passing and rushing yards. His 9 TD:6 INT is a bit less impressive, and knocks down what would otherwise be a great season.
McCormick
TANY/A: 5.96
Not bad for a first year QB. I did see one unintentionally funny comment from @infinitempg during the stream last night (was on mobile and couldn't respond). In the 4th quarter, he made the comment that he sucked in the 4th quarter. He was playing against the best secondary in the league and ended up dropping back 62 times. His 4 receivers (because he has no depth) all had multiple catches. McCormick, you weren't the one sucking. Your receivers were tired and you were playing a tough secondary.
Applehort
TANY/A: 7.92
Applehort set a new career-high single game TANY/A of 10.72 in Week 2. If he continues this pace, which is actually possible given that his schedule doesn't appear to get harder, he will set a league record for efficiency.
Completions:
Showbiz: 100
Fitzptatrick: 87
After 4 games, both QBs lost exactly 7 completions from what they had over preseason. That's mildly interesting, but it means that, proportionally, Fitzpatrick is dropping off more. Showbiz, as expected, continues to be the focus of the offense.
Passing Yards:
Showbiz: 1078
Fitzptatrick: 909
Once again, not only did both decrease, and not only does Showbiz have the lead, but he improved upon it considerably, beating Fitz by over 42 yards per game in the air. At this rate, Fitz is on pace to finish below last year's mark, which is beyond disappointing, but more on that later.
Touchdowns:
Showbiz: 7
Fitzptatrick: 8
It's tempting to go back to the narrative on red zone performance, but we are talking about one completion difference in the end zone over 4 games, not a big difference. And Arizona scored a whopping 3 more points than Orange County. I am going to leave this one be for now.
Interceptions:
Showbiz: 6
Fitzptatrick: 3
Just...how? Last year, I rationalized this by mentioning the riskier plays OC called along with Showbiz lagging behind in raw passing ability, but that isn't the case any more. Showbiz is, in fact, as able a passer as Fitz, and both teams have mixed up strategies (seemingly). Obviously, with Showbiz passing more often, more interceptions make sense, but it should be closer.
Rushing Yards:
Showbiz: 30
Fitzptatrick: 64
Definitely closer than we saw in preseason. What's interesting is that Showbiz is marginally more efficient in yards per attempt, which is surprising given that Fitz has better run blocking and is just much more mobile. However, Showbiz has fumbled twice compared to zero for Fitz, so all in all it's probably best for Showbiz to rely on the arm.
Sacks:
Showbiz: 12
Fitzptatrick: 11
This one is almost a complete non-factor. In fact, Showbiz actually has the lower sack percentage, 6.1% to 6.9%, giving him the advantage here.
TANY/A:
Showbiz: 4.2
Fitzptatrick: 5.4
As predicted, Fitz has fallen off considerably from his unsustainable preseason. Showbiz has fallen off a bit as well, though, which I certainly didn't expect.
Offensive System:
Showbiz: The best WR duo in the league (Crush and Atwell) is nothing to laugh at. Add in Josh Garden, Zephyrous splitting time between FB and TE, and Adams, who has the best hands of all RBs in the league, and there is no shortage of weapons. In addition, expect the extremely explosive Jaylon Broxton, and Showbiz can throw all day long. As for the sacks, they will decline considerably with the center being upgraded from the preseason roster. It isn’t a huge upgrade, but it should be enough to buy Showbiz the time he needs. I will say that their usage of this talent is kind of surprising, but when TC is on the other team, one tends to just assume he knows something you don't.
Fitzpatrick: Viggo Squanch stepped up his game big time from S9, and looks like he’s good enough to be the top receiver on a real offense. With Browning opposite him, Wachter dropped off the map entirely. The big advantage Fitz has is Balthazar Crindy at TE. He was very quiet last year, posting only 500 yards and 1 TD, but he will be the breakout player of the year. Thus far his receiving is on pace for last year, though as I mentioned, Fitz has passed less so far, which I do think will change.
Schedule: Both QBs have had two home and two away, and both have faced pretty comparable defenses. Honestly, I don't see much of a difference here.
Prediction: I am going to walk back a bit on preseason predictions. I am still leaning toward Showbiz on paper, but it just doesn't seem to be happening yet, and now he has to catch up before he can beat Fitz, so I am going to say about even.
Also, here is a REALLY quick bit on the other QBs.
Christ
TANY/A: 2.59
I expected a lot better. For what it's worth, some of that is due to Canton vulturing like mad (he has 24 of the team's 44 points). His worst game was Week 1 @ OC, where he amassed 100 yards on 24 passes and 2 rushes, but also lost 47 in sacks...and threw an INT with no TD for a TANY/A of 0.24. His best was Week 3 @ COL (surprising it was a road game). Despite a 0 TD, 2 INT performance, he only got sacked once, and threw for 293 yards on 46 attempts for a TANY/A of 4.1. I do think Christ will see a larger share of the points down the road, but I also think his remaining schedule is tougher.
Falconi
TANY/A: 4.18
Okay...real talk. Falconi led the Liberty in their Week 2 win. Despite Brown having been the entire offense in S10, he had only 19 carries the whole game. I really love watching her play, because she actually makes a lot of plays for a young QB. This offense will be very formidable in S12. Worst game was Week 1 hosting NOLA (obviously), with 146 yards on 36 attempts, but also 1:1 TD:INT and only one sack taken for a TANY/A of 3.08. Best game was Week 2 @SJS. 202 yards on 33 attempts, 1 TD, 0 INT for a TANY/A of 5.59.
Showbiz
TANY/A: 4.2
Fitzpatrick
TANY/A: 5.4
Pennington:
TANY/A: 5.55
Trust me when I say this honeymoon will end. His schedule has been fairly average, and he is a good QB, but he won't improve while defenses will. Additionally, his TANY/A is likely lower than you expected. The reason is sacks. With 15 taken, only Christ has more. Eventually some of that pressure (and poor hands on his receivers) will result in more interceptions.
Maximus
TANY/A: 5.91
The volume is certainly there. Maximus looks to be a fantasy darling, with over 1500 combined passing and rushing yards. His 9 TD:6 INT is a bit less impressive, and knocks down what would otherwise be a great season.
McCormick
TANY/A: 5.96
Not bad for a first year QB. I did see one unintentionally funny comment from @infinitempg during the stream last night (was on mobile and couldn't respond). In the 4th quarter, he made the comment that he sucked in the 4th quarter. He was playing against the best secondary in the league and ended up dropping back 62 times. His 4 receivers (because he has no depth) all had multiple catches. McCormick, you weren't the one sucking. Your receivers were tired and you were playing a tough secondary.
Applehort
TANY/A: 7.92
Applehort set a new career-high single game TANY/A of 10.72 in Week 2. If he continues this pace, which is actually possible given that his schedule doesn't appear to get harder, he will set a league record for efficiency.
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