Regression, How would you do it?

[White Cornerback]

Alright, enough jerking around. Let's get some numbers going in here. I made this system with the intention that a player can play through their 10th season with respectable numbers. After their 10th season they start to fall off a cliff. This is NOT intended to mimic NFL careers. This is intended to have reasonable career lengths for a sim league while also not allowing someone to just play in perpetuity. A 10 season career is about one and a half years IRL, we don't need a QB position for a team being locked up for 2+ years while other people try and break into the league.

The tables below show three different scenarios. Scenario 1 is a player who has earned an average of 180 TPE per season through his entire career, and will continue to earn 180 TPE per season during his regression.

Scenario 2 is a player who has earned an average of 125 TPE per season and will continue to earn 125 TPE per season during regression.

Scenario 3 is a player who has earned an average of 75 TPE per season and will continue to earn 75 TPE per season during regression.

The table might be slightly confusing so I color coded it. The YELLOW cells are the regression amounts that are calculated based upon the total TPE for the end of that season to be subtracted before the beginning of the next season. So the 30% TPE loss listed in S7 is applied after S7 and before S8. The stuff in blue is the most useful as it tells you the range of TPE your regressing player will start with, earn, and end with during that season.



So our max earner is still basically max throughout all of s8 and s9, because most positions only have about 800-900 max "useful" TPE, and really most positions are capped on their core stats when around 600 TPE. By S10 they have begun to regress much more significantly and are down to around the same TPE they had in S3ish. By S11 they've basically regressed to S2 levels.

Our mid earner is still playing at a very high level in S8, have regressed to around his S4 level in s9, and in S10 is down to his s3ish level. S11 he is down to his s2.

Our lightweight earner begins regression at 600 TPE so he likely has most core stats capped and his first season in regression (s8) drops to the 400-500 range, about where he was during S6. During S9 he is down to the 300s where he was in S4, and S10 he is down to s3 levels.

So as you can see high level earners are still very powerful through the end of s9 and very much a valuable starter at the end of s10, by S11 they probably should have hung it up unless they're gunning for one last ring.

The mid level earner is still a solid starter through S10 as well, but in S11 they might as well be a high earning rookie.

The casual fucker is useful through the end of s8, in s9 they've probably dropped to backup levels, and S10 and S11 he sucks, maybe he should have tried harder during his prime.

Personally I believe this scale is ideal for us here.