(S9) - PT 5 - Revisiting Expectations

[kckolbe]

It’s been kind of a mixed season for predictions. On one hand, Fitzpatrick has well-exceeded the marks I set for him at the beginning, when I predicted a TANY/A of 2.5. He’s currently just over 3. His record is about where I expected it, 2-11, with one possible win remaining on the road against SJS. Granted, I expected 3-4, so there is still a chance I will fall significantly below that mark. On other QBs, there have been bigger surprises. Mat Akselsen has underperformed terribly. The saddest thing about that is that, due to regression, it is extremely unlikely that he bounces back. The best he can hope for is to just play as well next season. Logan Noble did far less damage to his career numbers than expected, throwing 2 TDs against San Jose and another 2 against Arizona to avoid setting the record for fewest TDs. His interceptions have also been ridiculously low considering how many incomplete passes he’s thrown. It would seem that experience (or just luck) have been very kind to him. His TANY/A is almost double what I expected at the beginning of the year. The biggest “correct” prediction I had was with Ryan Applehort, who had a huge breakout year.