09-05-2017, 04:33 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2017, 04:36 AM by 37thchamber.)
Based on these numbers, you'd expect the Yeti to bounce back next season and probably make the playoffs, if not win the NSFC while the Hawks to regress a bit, and the Wraiths and Liberty to stay around the same... but of course, this is ignoring personnel changes. So Yeti and Wraiths to make the playoffs, according to this.
This also shows the disparity between the NSFC and ASFC in a way. Sabercats and Legion weren't even close by any measure, whereas the NSFC teams were projected to finish within 3 games of each other. That's not a massive swing, I mean, if the Hawks hadn't beaten the Liberty on the road, they wouldn't have made the playoffs. Similarly, if the Yeti hadn't lost to the Legion at home, they would have made the playoffs. These numbers basically confirm those two results as being the crucial ones (Hawks ~1 win better than projection, Yeti ~1 win worse than projection)
That said, I'm wary of these numbers being applied to what is essentially a glorified random number generator. I'd perhaps adjust the coefficient to be lower, tbh, to account for a little more randomness. Though you could make the opposite argument for home games. Hmm... in that case maybe I'd make two calculations, for home and away games, and then sum the expected wins.
Interesting stuff anyway.
This also shows the disparity between the NSFC and ASFC in a way. Sabercats and Legion weren't even close by any measure, whereas the NSFC teams were projected to finish within 3 games of each other. That's not a massive swing, I mean, if the Hawks hadn't beaten the Liberty on the road, they wouldn't have made the playoffs. Similarly, if the Yeti hadn't lost to the Legion at home, they would have made the playoffs. These numbers basically confirm those two results as being the crucial ones (Hawks ~1 win better than projection, Yeti ~1 win worse than projection)
That said, I'm wary of these numbers being applied to what is essentially a glorified random number generator. I'd perhaps adjust the coefficient to be lower, tbh, to account for a little more randomness. Though you could make the opposite argument for home games. Hmm... in that case maybe I'd make two calculations, for home and away games, and then sum the expected wins.
Interesting stuff anyway.
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