*SIM GODS ANALYSIS - SEASON 11

[infinitempg]

with the blessing of timeconsumer, I present to you:

[div align=\\\"center\\\"]SIM GODS SEASON 11[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]An analysis of the season results versus probability[/div]

As we all know, each game in this league is run by a simulation game, Draft Day Sports: Pro Football 16, and just like in real football, what occurs on the field isn't necessarily representative as to what should happen. Upsets occur all the time, and while good strategy can often overcome talent differences, those who are predicted to lose are at the mercy of the Sim Gods if they want a win. In this post, I will be examining Season 11's results and comparing them to what should have happened given the strategies and depth charts provided for that week's sim.

Methods
Using the sim file provided in the league Discord for that week (for example, the W4 file to do Week 4 simulations), I ran 100 exhibition games between the teams matched up. Using the proper sim file ensures that the same strategies and depth charts submitted by the GMs are used in both this and the actual games.* These simulations were run with the correct plays file (thanks speculadora!) and with "Enable Personalities" disabled to ensure accuracy. Generally, 100 sims is accurate enough to get a sense of who will win, though all win percentages should be taken with a +/- 3% for variability in the sim.

I then took the results from each set of simulations and for each matchup collected the win percentages for each team, as well as the projected line from the set of 100 simulations. This was all done in Google Sheets, which automatically generated this based on outputs from the simulation.

I can use the projected win percentages over the whole season to project the overall record of each team. This was performed using a Python script, taking advantage of statistical combinations to analyze every possibility that could have arisen.

*Week 3's file is not provided on the league Discord, but since it was a double sim I used Week 4's file.

Results and Discussion
Games
First, I present a spreadsheet overviewing each game's win probabilities and comparing it to the results.

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We can generally see that there are a few tiers of teams, but home field advantage plays a pretty significant role. For example, In Week 7, Baltimore is projected to win 69% of the time at home, but the rematch in Week 14 played in New Orleans gives them only a 19% chance of winning. Obviously some of that is due to different trades and differences in earning, but that is still a fairly large swing.

There's also some fairly large upsets we can visually see. The two biggest upsets came at the expense of the Yellowknife Wraiths (more on them later) in Week 13 and 14, losing big at home to both Colorado and Philadelphia when they should have won big. Baltimore also had a fair share of upsets to the Yeti and more notably the Liberty in Weeks 10 and 6 respectively.

Teams
I'll do a fairly quick review on each team, as well as presenting graphs of each team's record probability. This will be in order of most probable to least probable results.

NEW ORLEANS
Final Record: 11-3
Probability of 11 wins: 24.0%
Most Likely Record: 10-4 (25.6%)
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The Second Line are fundamentally a good team, and it shows here. The only game that doesn’t really go their way is at Colorado in Week 11, and they end up right around where they should at a 24% probability. Nothing terribly interesting here.

BALTIMORE
Final Record: 9-5
Probability of 9 wins: 22.6%
Most Likely Record: 10-4 (24.7%)
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Much like their fellow conference leaders, Baltimore was destined to perform at a high level this season - though how high was up for debate. With the addition of QB Ryan Applehort (now shipped off to Yellowknife), many believed that they could go undefeated on their quest for a repeat - but the Sim Gods did not, giving them a 2% chance of only dropping one game and a 0.2% chance of winning every game. (NOLA ended up having the highest probability of going undefeated at 0.6%.) Even with the surprise losses to Colorado and Philadelphia, the Hawks were treated fairly by the Sim Gods.

ORANGE COUNTY
Final Record: 10-4
Probability of 10 wins: 19.5%
Most Likely Record: 9-5 (23.7%)
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Orange County were hurt this season by their very slow start, but once things kicked into gear the Otters were a dominant team. Over the last 9 games, the Otters only lost once (to Arizona), and pulled off a big upset over the favored Hawks in Baltimore. Taking away the upset puts them at their most likely spot of 9-5, but otherwise they’re right where they should be.

ARIZONA
Final Record: 6-8
Probability of 6 wins: 18.2%
Most Likely Record: 7-7 (22.8%)
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The Outlaws find themselves a solid middle of the road team, with a peak in probability at 7-7. Ultimately, they ended up on the short end of the Sim Gods' wrath, but not enough to call themselves truly unlucky. A few more pieces to add onto growing team might sneak them into the playoffs. Once again, par for the course.

SAN JOSE
Final Record: 1-13
Probability of 1 win: 17.7%
Most Likely Record: 2-12 (28.1%)
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I think we all know San Jose was never going to be good this season, and the fact that they were never favored in a game this season shows that. However, one huge upset at Philadelphia kept the Sabercats from being put in the same boat as the S10 Liberty and the S6-S7 Yeti as a winless team (which they had a 4.9% chance of becoming). The Sim Gods actually put the chance of two wins as the highest probability outcome, and the best chance to get that second win was when Colorado came to town in Week 10 - but the Yeti barely squeaked out a win. That was all they were willing to give, however - the odds of the Sabercats putting together 7 or more wins this season was less than 1%.

PHILADELPHIA
Final Record: 7-7
Probability of 7 wins: 16.0%
Most Likely Record: 5-9 (23.4%)
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The Liberty were this year’s pleasant surprise, making a huge bounce back from their 0-14 season to hit 0.500. The Sim Gods were lenient to the city of Philadelphia, especially with their stunner against Baltimore. But what the Sim Gods giveth, they taketh away, as they also dropped a game at home to the Sabercats that they had a 94% chance of winning. Even if they hit the most probable outcome of 5-9 though, credit shouldn’t be taken away from the Liberty GMs - that is a huge improvement from the sorry state of the team after their Ultimus win, and the team seems to be shedding its tank sooner than expected.

COLORADO
Final Record: 8-6
Probability of 8 wins: 8.7%
Most Likely Record: 6-8 (22.9%)
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Now we start going into the real outliers of the league. The Yeti were supposed to be bad - absolutely horrible - this season. New management started a fire sale on defense, selling stars such as Andre Bly Jr. and Eli Kamaka to Philly, as well as an integral part of their defense in Rickey Ramero to Orange County. Colorado was literally picking players off the street to play on their defense, while watching team legend Dwayne Aaron and another promising player in Alexandre Thibault both decide to retire at season’s end. But the Sim Gods seemed to smile down on the Yeti, as they outperformed all expectations and came within 30 seconds and two absolutely dumb red zone interceptions by QB Micycle McCormick in the Week 14 OCO game from stealing home field for the NSFC championship. While the Yeti management deserve some credit for getting good value out of their pre-season trades, the record does not represent the team.

YELLOWKNIFE
Final Record: 4-10
Probability of 4 wins: 5.3%
Most Likely Record: 7-7 (23.4%)
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The biggest surprise to me this season was just how badly Yellowknife performed. The Wraiths have lots of talent on their squad, even if much if it isn’t active, but yet they stumbled to a 4-10 record when in reality they should have been in the playoffs. Looking at the spreadsheet above, we see game after game after game where Yellowknife should have huge margins of victory, only to see them get steamrolled by inferior opposition. It’s almost as if their stadium was built on a sacred burial ground. While management should take some of the blame for this, the Wraiths management had built a team with talent and put forth the strategies that were likely to win - only to have the Sim Gods toss them to the wind.

Conclusions

Ultimately, the Sim Gods do what they want, and every season some teams will be lifted past their expectations while others will wonder where they went wrong. This year happened to have that split between the divisions - the ASFC seemed to have fairly consistent results while the NSFC was complete chaos.

ASFC Results:
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NSFC Results:
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Looking towards next season, I can predict we should have some of the same. Colorado and Baltimore are both regressing (the Yeti perhaps the hardest), while Philadelphia is on its way up. We could possibly see the Liberty take their mantle back at the top of the division, but it’ll be a 3 way race between them, the Yeti, and Hawks. The ASFC will probably remain the same way, though San Jose and Arizona should be taking some big steps forward, especially with the NSFC getting collectively weaker.

What we ultimately need to take away from this, however, is that the people of Colorado have done something to please the Sim Gods this season, and all the teams should be looking for how to replicate it.

(If there are any errors do hit me up, I probably made some mistakes/left notes for myself that I forgot to delete/etc.)

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[iamslm22]

Man, the sim really felt like it screwed us this year. Poor YKW too

[kckolbe]

I think you are way too quick to assume ASFC won't change. There wasn't that large a gap between NOLA and ARI's expected wins, and NOLA got worse and ARI better. This is damn near a 3 way tie for S12.

[Muford]

Don't sleep on SJS, they on that up and up boyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

[nunccoepi]

This is a beautiful piece of work

[manicmav36]

I think you are way too quick to assume ASFC won't change.  There wasn't that large a gap between NOLA and ARI's expected wins, and NOLA got worse and ARI better.  This is damn near a 3 way tie for S12.

NSFC will be a giant cluster too. This should be an exciting season.

[37thchamber]

something something parity something something keikaku



(TN: keikaku means plan)