*How likely is your team to make the playoffs after week 1?

**Ephenssta**

With week one of the ISFL in the books and week two coming up this evening, now seems like a good time to start talking about how the regular season is expected to play out. There are already some clear cut favorites to win their divisions and some teams who need to make some drastic changes quickly if they hope to have a shot at making a postseason appearance in S31.

All of this is based on repeatedly simming the remainder of the regular season, using the week 1 file that was sent out following Monday’s games. After each sim of the season, I logged each team’s position in the standings. If I had a bit more time on my hands, I’d have tracked actual records. But those are less important than the finishing position and I was pretty lazy while doing the sims.

With a handful of seasons simmed, we can start making some assumptions about our biggest winners and losers, starting with the ASFC. Please note that the teams are not in order of their average finishing position, but rather their playoff percentage. The lists go from worst to best playoff percentages.

The worst finisher in the ASFC, on average, is New Orleans. The SecondLine had a miserable average finishing position of 6.2 and their most common finish was all the way down in dead last. They managed a best finish of 3rd place, though, so there is some faint hope for our friends in New Orleans to make a surprise appearance in the playoffs. And, as we all know, once you make the playoffs it’s just three coin flip games between you and a championship. And in this sim, anything is possible. But just because anything is possible does not make it likely. New Orleans is tied for the lowest playoff percentage in the entire league.

The second worst finisher in the conference and the team that share’s NO’s incredibly low playoff percent are the once mighty Orange County Otters. The Otters have fallen from grace recently and had an average finishing position of 5.7. While slightly better than the SecondLine, being second to last probably is not too much comfort. The Otters finished most frequently in sixth place, but also managed to sneak into the three seed in the conference exactly once in the tests I ran.

The next worst average finisher are the Honolulu Hahalua with an average finishing position of 4.3. The Hahalua finished fourth most frequently. I expect them to be near the middle of the table, and they definitely have a chance at winning some coin toss games and surprising people. Sim gonna sim, so it’s entirely possible that we could see the Hahalua in the playoffs, but it certainly is not likely. They ranged from 3rd to 6th in the standings. They have some real ground to make up if they want to be seen as a legitimate contender. They managed to sneak into the playoffs in 20% of the seasons I simmed. Like I said, it’s certainly possible, but we still are not into the realm of probable yet. But keep your eyes on the Hahalua. A few wins and they might actually be in the mix as we get further into the season.

The San Jose SaberCats claim the middle position in the standings. Their average finish, though, is worse than that of the Hahalua at 4.6. Ultimately, I think we just saw more significant swings between the highs and the lows for San Jose. Their most common finish was third place, which would see them in the playoffs. BUT, even though that was the most frequent finishing position for them, they still only managed to make the playoffs about 27% of the time. A one in four chance really is not terrible, all things considered. I think San Jose is in a similar position to Honolulu. Things could go very well for them, but it’s more likely that they just finish somewhere in the middle. But if a few things go their way, they could manage to claim a playoff spot and maybe pull off some upsets.

New York did not average a playoff seed, but they did manage to have the third best average position in the seasons I simmed with an average finishing spot of 3.8. That’s closer to 4 than it is to 3, if you’re bad at math. But, like the SaberCats, New York finished in third place most frequently and just almost makes the playoffs in half my sims. Their actual percent comes in at 47%. New York really was a wild card. They finished all the way up in first, but also sunk down to seventh. They are the only team in the ASFC to finish both first and last at some point during the sims I ran. If one of San Jose or Honolulu has a strong season, New York is likely the first team that would get knocked out. But they certainly look like a much stronger squad than either of those teams, so I expect to see them in the playoffs. But likely as the three seed.

Austin is the first team in the ASFC to average a playoff spot. Their average finishing position was 1.9. Austin finished as high as first and as low as fourth, but their most common landing spot was 2nd in the conference. They only missed the playoffs in one sim, which was the one time they were the first team out. A playoff percent over 90 is certainly something to be proud of. It would take some incredible upsets for the Copperheads to fall short of the playoffs this season. I expect Austin to be a contender this season and we should definitely see them in the postseason.

Arizona looked unstoppable in most of my sims. Their average finishing position was 1.4. And while I did not bother to track records during these sims, it seemed like every other time the team was putting up 14 or 15 wins. Their most common landing spot was first, and more impressively, their worst ever finish was second place, meaning they never missed the playoffs in my sims. I think it’s safe to say that they’ll be the top team in the league when all is said and done. They’ve built a strong squad and should at a minimum make the playoffs this season. They seem like a lock for the top seed in the division.

The ASFC standings from my sims were:
1. Arizona – in playoffs 100% of the time
2. Austin – in playoffs 93% of the time
3. New York – in playoffs 47% of the time
4. San Jose – in playoffs 27% of the time
5. Honolulu – in playoffs 20% of the time
t6. Orange County – in playoffs 7% of the time
t6. New Orleans – in playoffs 7% of the time

After only week one, the top two seeds in the ASFC seem virtually set. The number three spot features a contest between New York, San Jose, and Honolulu, but New York is the clear early favorite. I am really hoping we see some more craziness here, because the playoff picture being so set during the early season seems really unfortunate. But maybe that’s just how the conference plays out this season. I look forward to checking in after a few games and seeing if/how things have changed.

Now for the NSFC
The Chicago Butchers were the bottom of the barrel for the NSFC in my sims. Their average finishing position is 4.8, they finished most frequently in fifth, and they were tied for last by only making the playoffs 13% of the time. It surprised me a bit that a team that was consistently finishing ahead of a couple teams had worse playoff odds than the teams that were frequently finishing a little bit below them. That could be a small sample size thing, or it could be that those other teams just have a higher ceiling. It is interesting to me that the “worst” team in the NSFC has double the chances of making the playoffs at this point in the season as the “worst” two teams in the ASFC. The Butchers best finish was third place and their worst was dead last. The Butchers still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but they’ll probably need some help to get there. But anything can happen in this sim.

Second from the bottom in playoff percentage are the Baltimore Hawks. The Hawks are still pretty down on their luck, but things may be beginning to look a little brighter for them over the next few seasons. Their average finishing position was 5.3 and they made the playoffs in about 13% of my sims, which puts them in a tie for Chicago for the least likely NSFC teams to be featured in the postseason. Like the Butchers, their best finishing position was third and their worst was seventh. Their most frequent landing spot was sixth. With Baltimore choosing to put a lot of responsibility on the back of their QB, their season likely depends heavily on how Frick’s player performs this season.

Yellowknife jumps in next. Their average finishing position was worse than both Baltimore and Chicago at 5.5. Yet they manage to make the playoffs at exactly double the rate of the other two teams: 26%. The Wraiths find themselves in a bit of an odd situation this season where they still have a fringe shot at the playoffs, but are definitely on the tail end of their window. But if a few coin toss type situations go their way, they have a good shot. However, in the same boat as Baltimore and Chicago, their ceiling appears to be the three seed while their floor is dead last in the division. There is a lot of variability for these three teams, which obviously has a lot of implications for draft order and potentially even the third playoff slot. It’s not often that the bottom of the division is interesting to watch, but in this situation it really might be.

The team that was consistently the first man out this season is Berlin. The Fire Salamanders averaged a finishing position within the ASFC of 4.5, a whole place better than Yellowknife’s average. Yet their most frequent finishing position was sixth place. Berlin, though, has a higher ceiling and finished as high as second place. They made the playoffs in 33% of the sims I ran. But their floor, just like the others mentioned so far, is dead last in the division. So far, ever team in the NSFC has managed to finish at the very bottom at least once.

Philadelphia really surprised me here. I know they’ve been moving in a good direction lately, but to see them in the playoffs more consistently than teams that have had a lot of recent success was a bit of a shock. The Liberty placed, on average, 4.1. Their most common finishing position was fifth in the division, but they made the playoffs in 40% of the sims. While that isn’t a huge gap to Berlin, it’s a clear early advantage. I think the Liberty are a squad that has a lot to prove this season. Negs could really take the next step at QB and, if the team can find some more wins this season, they could really make a splash. They finished as high as first. But before you get too excited, they also had sims where they finished dead last in the division. As a spoiler, they are the final team to post a dead last finish within the division, making five squads that at this point could finish dead last and compete for the 1oa draft pick. That said, I would be shocked if the Liberty managed to fall all the way to the bottom. I think we’ll most likely see them around 3-5 when the regular season wraps up.

The Colorado Yeti had the second highest playoff percentage in the conference. Their average finishing position was 2.2 and they found themselves in the postseason 80% of the time. Their most frequent finishing slot was second, but they did mange to win the conference in a substantial handful of sims. The Yeti also managed to fall to as low as fifth in the conference, which would be a real bummer for us. At an 80% chance, though, we expect to at least be in the playoffs this season. But we expected that last season and look how that ended up…

The Sarasota Sailfish made the playoffs 93% of the time, making them the best finisher in the NSFC. Their average spot in the order was 1.7 and their most common position was first. The Sailfish, like the Yeti, managed to finish as low as fifth in the sims I ran. I fully expect the Sailfish to finish the season in one of the top two spots in the division. It looks like the final order will likely come down to their games with the Yeti and whether or not there are any other significant upsets.

The NSFC order is:
1. Sarasota – in playoffs 93% of the time
2. Colorado – in playoffs 80% of the time
3. Philadelphia – in playoffs 40% of the time
4. Berlin – in playoffs 33% of the time
5. Yellowknife – in playoffs 26% of the time
t6. Baltimore – in playoffs 13% of the time
t6. Chicago – in playoffs 13% of the time

The NSFC seems to have a lot more variability early on. A lot of teams could finish last or could find themselves in the playoffs. Yellowknife had the most frequent last place finishes, but also managed to make the playoffs at double the rate of Baltimore and Chicago. It will be really interesting to see how their season unfolds. There is a good race for the 1 seed early on between Colorado and Sarasota, with the fish having an early edge there. Ultimately, I expect this to be an entertaining season with a few storylines to keep an eye on.