10-06-2017, 10:49 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-06-2017, 10:51 AM by timeconsumer.)
Since our great illustrious fantasy master @ADwyer87 has begun keeping updated stats on fantasy teams I decided to break the information down and analyze some trends and facts about fantasy through week 10. Just a fair bit of warning, these are not 100% official as they do not have fumbles included yet.
The first thing to ask is what draftees are found most commonly on teams that are winning their groups? Are most of this years leaders currently being carried by the big names like Arizona Defense or Mike Boss? Or are they winning with clever middle and late-round picks like Westfield, Leclair, Weston, or even Burnsman? The answers are a mix of both.
The most common for #1 teams are Shane Weston and the Philadelphia defense, represented 7 times.
At 6 showings each are Arizona Defense and Scrub Kyubee.
At 5 showings each we have Charlie Law, Reg Mackworthy, Fox North, Robert Phelps, Stormblessed, and Trey Willie.
So some of these most common winning pieces represent value picks like Philly and Weston. While others represent known powerhouses like Arizona, Mackworthy, and Phelps. So winning isn't necessarily about the best 1st round pick or the best middle-round pick, rather you have to nail it throughout the entire draft.
What about those with the most showings on last place teams?
Well, the most common is None. That's not None Stormblessed, mind you, that's None Player. No pick at all. 38 times on last place teams there was nobody in that slot. Not a surprise really. There was only 1 None among first place teams.
At 4 showings each we also have Darlane Farlane and Omar Wright. Both are good players who have done decently this season, but were likely round 1 picks where they lost their owners value.
So what about players that weren't really drafted at all? We have:
Drafted to only 1 team among all 16 groups we have: Bubba Browning, Eric Kennedy, Connor Tanner, Wren Piper, Jaxson Tuck, and Samuel Zhang.
Drafted to 2 teams we have: Damien West, Gabriel Tenzini, and Jessie Sanderson.
Drafted to 3 teams we have: Nicholas Pierno, Sebastian Joyce, DJ Law, and Erlich Burnsman.
Interestingly enough, even though there are only 16 groups, Turk Turkleton was drafted 17 times. He is on two rosters in Group 10. Making Turkleton the most owned player in Fantasy! Congrats!
So how does this roll up? Who is the best? Who is the worst?
The best teams are:
@ErMurazor - 1080.16 points (corrupt simmer rigging games for his fantasy team stats)
@Keyg_an - 1051.16 points
@ADwyer87 - 1027.72 points (same group as Er :rofl: )
@sabills - 1017.5 points
@timeconsumer :lift: - 992.92 points
@automatic - 992.52 points
What about the worst teams? Well there are a lot of teams with zero players, 1 player, 2 players, etc. The worst team that has a player in every slot belongs to @Dangles with 655.42 points. Second worst is @luchalibre with 679.4 points.
And groups, if your Adwyer your team is awesome but your group makes it so you don't take first. Who you play against can easily determine how likely you are to win that group, even if your team sucks.
The group with the most points scored is group 16. However group 16 has 7 teams so they average only 780.6 points per team. Automatic is #1 in that group.
The most difficult group is Group 14 with an average of 877.4 points per team. @sabills is leading that group.
The second most difficult group is Group 4 with an average of 861.1 points per team. @DrunkenTeddy is leading that group currently.
Third is my fancy group, group 11, with an average of 860.3 points per team. I'm leading that group, because I'm awesome.
The easiest group was Group 8. That group averaged only 712.1 points per team as they have 2 players starting multiple empty slots.
The second easiest was group 12 with 733.8 points per team. Here they had 1 team that did not draft anybody. But if you remove him from the equation they come in at 880.5 points per active team.
The easiest group that has players starting in every slot is group 3, which averaged 820.4 points per team. @`TimPest` is leading that group, but they have @Deusolis and @jaskins bringing down the average with both teams under performing.
Next, we'll look at scoring by position. Who did you draft for your FLEX? A WR? A RB? Which is better?
The top scoring Flex players are:
Shane Weston - WR - 143.5 points
Alexandre Leclair - WR - 136.2 points
Ardie Savea - RB - 131.2 points
Bubba Nuck - RB (seriously? in the flex) - 129.7 points
Bailey Cook - WR - 114.5 points
How about the worst Flex?
Budda Browning - WR - 24.4 points
Matthew Vincent - WR - 41.9 points
Eric Kennedy - RB - 43.4 points
No real difference. RB vs WR doesn't matter, just get a good flex.
What about Defense? Arizona, duh. But how much better? Well, at 236 points the difference between Arizona and the #2 defense, San Jose @ 170 points, is 60% bigger than the difference between Mike Boss and Ethan Hunt which is 41 point difference.
Interestingly most defense not named Arizona and Colorado and are very close together. The mean points scored for Defense was 159.7 with a standard deviation of 40. Arizona is 1.9 standard deviations from the mean, Colorado is 1.4 standard deviations from the mean. Every other team is within 1 standard deviation (furthest of that group is OC at 0.63, from there it's all 0.0-0.3). So if you didn't get Arizona, I hope you waited for awhile to draft a defense. Nobody drafted Las Vegas D by the way.
On the QB side of things we have a very similar story to defense. Mike Boss is the very top @ 201.22 points scored. Nicholas Pierno is the very bottom at 20.22 points scored. Everybody else in between is pretty close together. Boss is 1.5 standard deviations (can I just start saying 1.5 sigma? whatever, I'm going to) from the mean. Pierno is 2 sigma. Everybody else is 0.6 sigma or less. Same moral, if you didn't get Boss I hope you waited for awhile.
Kickers are interesting too. Ronaldo is killing it at 145 points scored (that's better than most 1st round picks) while Kicksit is almost 3 times lower at 51 points scored. So the variance in kickers is much larger compared to QBs or defenses (I compare these positions similarly as we all have very limited choices compared to RB/WR). Ronaldo is 1.8 sigma. Kicksit is 1.2 sigma. In the middle everyone else somewhat close to average.
Okay, now onto everybody's favorite, WRs and RBs. Who do you draft first? A top tier RB? Or a top tier WR? On average a WR is scoring 103 points per player while a RB is scoring 114 points per player. It appears drafting a RB gives you better value.
The top skill position players are:
Westfield @ 170.2 points
Phelps @ 155.8 points (seriously, Otters have top 2 WRs and top QB)
Mackworthy @ 153 points
Weston @ 143.5 points
LeClair @ 136.2 points
Savea @ 131.2 points
Yes this was kind of covered in my flex section above, but some players like Mackworthy weren't drafted late enough to be a flex.
And that's about all I have for you for now. Please feel free to ask and request further analysis and I will happily write a followup piece. I'm sorry if this is full of typos, I'm in analysis mode not writing mode.
The first thing to ask is what draftees are found most commonly on teams that are winning their groups? Are most of this years leaders currently being carried by the big names like Arizona Defense or Mike Boss? Or are they winning with clever middle and late-round picks like Westfield, Leclair, Weston, or even Burnsman? The answers are a mix of both.
The most common for #1 teams are Shane Weston and the Philadelphia defense, represented 7 times.
At 6 showings each are Arizona Defense and Scrub Kyubee.
At 5 showings each we have Charlie Law, Reg Mackworthy, Fox North, Robert Phelps, Stormblessed, and Trey Willie.
So some of these most common winning pieces represent value picks like Philly and Weston. While others represent known powerhouses like Arizona, Mackworthy, and Phelps. So winning isn't necessarily about the best 1st round pick or the best middle-round pick, rather you have to nail it throughout the entire draft.
What about those with the most showings on last place teams?
Well, the most common is None. That's not None Stormblessed, mind you, that's None Player. No pick at all. 38 times on last place teams there was nobody in that slot. Not a surprise really. There was only 1 None among first place teams.
At 4 showings each we also have Darlane Farlane and Omar Wright. Both are good players who have done decently this season, but were likely round 1 picks where they lost their owners value.
So what about players that weren't really drafted at all? We have:
Drafted to only 1 team among all 16 groups we have: Bubba Browning, Eric Kennedy, Connor Tanner, Wren Piper, Jaxson Tuck, and Samuel Zhang.
Drafted to 2 teams we have: Damien West, Gabriel Tenzini, and Jessie Sanderson.
Drafted to 3 teams we have: Nicholas Pierno, Sebastian Joyce, DJ Law, and Erlich Burnsman.
Interestingly enough, even though there are only 16 groups, Turk Turkleton was drafted 17 times. He is on two rosters in Group 10. Making Turkleton the most owned player in Fantasy! Congrats!
So how does this roll up? Who is the best? Who is the worst?
The best teams are:
@ErMurazor - 1080.16 points (corrupt simmer rigging games for his fantasy team stats)
@Keyg_an - 1051.16 points
@ADwyer87 - 1027.72 points (same group as Er :rofl: )
@sabills - 1017.5 points
@timeconsumer :lift: - 992.92 points
@automatic - 992.52 points
What about the worst teams? Well there are a lot of teams with zero players, 1 player, 2 players, etc. The worst team that has a player in every slot belongs to @Dangles with 655.42 points. Second worst is @luchalibre with 679.4 points.
And groups, if your Adwyer your team is awesome but your group makes it so you don't take first. Who you play against can easily determine how likely you are to win that group, even if your team sucks.
The group with the most points scored is group 16. However group 16 has 7 teams so they average only 780.6 points per team. Automatic is #1 in that group.
The most difficult group is Group 14 with an average of 877.4 points per team. @sabills is leading that group.
The second most difficult group is Group 4 with an average of 861.1 points per team. @DrunkenTeddy is leading that group currently.
Third is my fancy group, group 11, with an average of 860.3 points per team. I'm leading that group, because I'm awesome.
The easiest group was Group 8. That group averaged only 712.1 points per team as they have 2 players starting multiple empty slots.
The second easiest was group 12 with 733.8 points per team. Here they had 1 team that did not draft anybody. But if you remove him from the equation they come in at 880.5 points per active team.
The easiest group that has players starting in every slot is group 3, which averaged 820.4 points per team. @`TimPest` is leading that group, but they have @Deusolis and @jaskins bringing down the average with both teams under performing.
Next, we'll look at scoring by position. Who did you draft for your FLEX? A WR? A RB? Which is better?
The top scoring Flex players are:
Shane Weston - WR - 143.5 points
Alexandre Leclair - WR - 136.2 points
Ardie Savea - RB - 131.2 points
Bubba Nuck - RB (seriously? in the flex) - 129.7 points
Bailey Cook - WR - 114.5 points
How about the worst Flex?
Budda Browning - WR - 24.4 points
Matthew Vincent - WR - 41.9 points
Eric Kennedy - RB - 43.4 points
No real difference. RB vs WR doesn't matter, just get a good flex.
What about Defense? Arizona, duh. But how much better? Well, at 236 points the difference between Arizona and the #2 defense, San Jose @ 170 points, is 60% bigger than the difference between Mike Boss and Ethan Hunt which is 41 point difference.
Interestingly most defense not named Arizona and Colorado and are very close together. The mean points scored for Defense was 159.7 with a standard deviation of 40. Arizona is 1.9 standard deviations from the mean, Colorado is 1.4 standard deviations from the mean. Every other team is within 1 standard deviation (furthest of that group is OC at 0.63, from there it's all 0.0-0.3). So if you didn't get Arizona, I hope you waited for awhile to draft a defense. Nobody drafted Las Vegas D by the way.
On the QB side of things we have a very similar story to defense. Mike Boss is the very top @ 201.22 points scored. Nicholas Pierno is the very bottom at 20.22 points scored. Everybody else in between is pretty close together. Boss is 1.5 standard deviations (can I just start saying 1.5 sigma? whatever, I'm going to) from the mean. Pierno is 2 sigma. Everybody else is 0.6 sigma or less. Same moral, if you didn't get Boss I hope you waited for awhile.
Kickers are interesting too. Ronaldo is killing it at 145 points scored (that's better than most 1st round picks) while Kicksit is almost 3 times lower at 51 points scored. So the variance in kickers is much larger compared to QBs or defenses (I compare these positions similarly as we all have very limited choices compared to RB/WR). Ronaldo is 1.8 sigma. Kicksit is 1.2 sigma. In the middle everyone else somewhat close to average.
Okay, now onto everybody's favorite, WRs and RBs. Who do you draft first? A top tier RB? Or a top tier WR? On average a WR is scoring 103 points per player while a RB is scoring 114 points per player. It appears drafting a RB gives you better value.
The top skill position players are:
Westfield @ 170.2 points
Phelps @ 155.8 points (seriously, Otters have top 2 WRs and top QB)
Mackworthy @ 153 points
Weston @ 143.5 points
LeClair @ 136.2 points
Savea @ 131.2 points
Yes this was kind of covered in my flex section above, but some players like Mackworthy weren't drafted late enough to be a flex.
And that's about all I have for you for now. Please feel free to ask and request further analysis and I will happily write a followup piece. I'm sorry if this is full of typos, I'm in analysis mode not writing mode.
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Hank Winchester (S25 - Current) - Scrub
Angus Winchester (S1-S12) - 4x Ultimus Champ - #2 Career Sacks - Hall of Fame
Cooter Bigsby (S14-S23) - S23 Ultimus Champ - #4 Career Yards - #4 Career TDs - 2x MVP - Hall of Fame
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