[DEV] ISFL Forums
*Let's talk about playoff structure! - Printable Version

+- [DEV] ISFL Forums (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums)
+-- Forum: Community (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=5)
+--- Forum: Media (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=37)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (http://dev.sim-football.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?fid=38)
+---- Thread: *Let's talk about playoff structure! (/showthread.php?tid=27070)

Pages: 1 2


*Let's talk about playoff structure! - Swanty - 11-02-2020

These are my own personal ramblings and have nothing to do with HO

One of the Ultimus Week prompts at the end of last season asked us to share our thoughts around how the league structure could change with the addition of two expansion teams. I wrote that I believed the league should stick with 6 playoff teams, with the conference winners still getting a bye. I've since changed my mind on this, and would like to outline why.

6 teams with 2 getting a bye makes sense on paper as it mirrors exactly the NFL structure for each conference. It's not a free for all that runs the risk of regularly having losing teams in the playoffs and gives a good incentive to finishing top of the division.

However, there are two key differences between our structure and the NFL's:
  1. Home field advantage is far more powerful in the ISFL. In the NFL, the home team wins around 58% of the time. In the ISFL it's around 65%.
  2. The higher ranking team plays our championship game at home.
First, let's take a look at the real-life NFL and the chances of each seed winning based entirely on seedings and HFA alone. The first number is their chances of winning the AFC/NFC (where the final game is played at home), and the second number is their chances of winning the Super Bowl (assuming it's played on neutral ground)

#1 seed - 33.6% (16.8%)
#2 seed - 28.3% (14.1%)
#3 seed - 11.9% (5.9%)
#4 seed - 10.9% (5.5%)
#5 seed - 7.9% (4.0%)
#6 seed - 7.4% (3.7%)

Now let's compare that to the ISFL, where the chances of winning the Ultimus based entirely on your seeding (and assuming a 65-35 homefield advantage) looks like this:
#1 seed - 42.3%
#2 seed - 29.6%
#3 seed - 10.4%
#4 seed - 8.8%
#5 seed - 4.7%
#6 seed - 4.3%

The ISFL's playoff structure is a lot more top heavy and predictable (S24 Ultimus aside!), with the conference winners winning the title 72% of the time. That's before even taking into account the fact that the better team probably got the higher seed. A close race in one division might result in a team narrowly edging another to the #1 seed instead of the #3. That alone more than quadruples their chances of winning the Ultimus!

Now let's take a look at what it would look like with an 8 team playoff structure:

#1 seed - 27.5%
#2 seed - 22.1%
#3 seed - 15.5%
#4 seed - 12.9%
#5 seed - 6.9%
#6 seed - 6.2%
#7 seed - 4.7%
#8 seed - 4.3%

Personally, this seems like a more desireable split that adds a little unpredictability and brings it more in line with the expectations we have from the NFL playoffs. The #1 seed still gets a significant advantage from having the more powerful HFA all the way through to the Ultimus, and there's still a 50% chance that one of the conference winners will win the title. Again, that's before taking into account any performance differences, which we know will stretch this distribution even more.

There's definitely pros and cons to both systems, so interested to hear everyone's thoughts on playoff structures for a 14 team league like ours.


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - Bayley - 11-02-2020

8 team playoffs when?


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - Starboy - 11-02-2020

I love going to an 8 team playoff and want more teams competing than what we got. Unfortunately, all of those opposed to the more balanced playoff system will tell you "It is stupid to put over half the league in the playoffs." That's the main issue that comes with expanding the playoffs again but I feel this definitely aids in the case for getting more teams involved hopefully


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - retrospace111 - 11-02-2020

(11-02-2020, 02:25 PM)Jackets28 Wrote: I love going to an 8 team playoff and want more teams competing than what we got. Unfortunately, all of those opposed to the more balanced playoff system will tell you "It is stupid to put over half the league in the playoffs." That's the main issue that comes with expanding the playoffs again but I feel this definitely aids in the case for getting more teams involved hopefully
I was one of those that hated too many playoffs teams, but now as I realize how inflated the league is with TPE, I’m all for it. Teams are too talented and it’s way more luck based than it was before, so a really good team can get kinda unlucky and miss the playoffs like Arizona last season. I think we should expand it to 8 playoff teams once we get 16 teams in the league though.


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - sakrosankt - 11-02-2020

The main reason I want to see 8 playoff teams is the fake sim of the #1 vs #4 seeded teams. If we could choose the playoff format, I wouldn't mind. But I don't like having a fake sims.


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - AdamS - 11-03-2020

how often was Ultimus contested between the #1 seed in both conferences


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - Swanty - 11-03-2020

(11-03-2020, 05:29 AM)AdamS Wrote: how often was Ultimus contested between the #1 seed in both conferences

Looks like 12 out of the 24 seasons we've had so far. A 65% HFA would suggest a 42% chance of it happening, so 50% makes sense given that the better teams are usually the higher seeds.


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - AdamS - 11-03-2020

And how about the #1 overall seed at end of season? How often do they make it and then how often do they win?

You previously mentions best in conference so I'm curious about best overall.


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - Pat - 11-03-2020

@ShnarlyDude had a suggestion on our last podcast (shameless plug) for the playoffs that might make it a little more interesting: change to a best of three series for every round.


RE: Let's talk about playoff structure! - slate - 11-03-2020

(11-03-2020, 12:20 PM)Punter715 Wrote: @ShnarlyDude  had a suggestion on our last podcast (shameless plug) for the playoffs that might make it a little more interesting: change to a best of three series for every round.

To connect this to Swanty's post, a best-of-three series with alternating HFA (i.e. top seed hosts 1st game, low seed hosts 2nd game, top seed hosts 3rd game if necessary), using the same 65-35 win probability assumption, results in a 58.2% chance of the higher seed winning and a 41.8% chance of the lower seed winning. That's very similar to the quoted proportion for the NFL, so that should also help even out the amount of lower seeds making the Ultimus.