These are my own personal ramblings and have nothing to do with HO
One of the Ultimus Week prompts at the end of last season asked us to share our thoughts around how the league structure could change with the addition of two expansion teams. I wrote that I believed the league should stick with 6 playoff teams, with the conference winners still getting a bye. I've since changed my mind on this, and would like to outline why.
6 teams with 2 getting a bye makes sense on paper as it mirrors exactly the NFL structure for each conference. It's not a free for all that runs the risk of regularly having losing teams in the playoffs and gives a good incentive to finishing top of the division.
However, there are two key differences between our structure and the NFL's:
#1 seed - 33.6% (16.8%)
#2 seed - 28.3% (14.1%)
#3 seed - 11.9% (5.9%)
#4 seed - 10.9% (5.5%)
#5 seed - 7.9% (4.0%)
#6 seed - 7.4% (3.7%)
Now let's compare that to the ISFL, where the chances of winning the Ultimus based entirely on your seeding (and assuming a 65-35 homefield advantage) looks like this:
#1 seed - 42.3%
#2 seed - 29.6%
#3 seed - 10.4%
#4 seed - 8.8%
#5 seed - 4.7%
#6 seed - 4.3%
The ISFL's playoff structure is a lot more top heavy and predictable (S24 Ultimus aside!), with the conference winners winning the title 72% of the time. That's before even taking into account the fact that the better team probably got the higher seed. A close race in one division might result in a team narrowly edging another to the #1 seed instead of the #3. That alone more than quadruples their chances of winning the Ultimus!
Now let's take a look at what it would look like with an 8 team playoff structure:
#1 seed - 27.5%
#2 seed - 22.1%
#3 seed - 15.5%
#4 seed - 12.9%
#5 seed - 6.9%
#6 seed - 6.2%
#7 seed - 4.7%
#8 seed - 4.3%
Personally, this seems like a more desireable split that adds a little unpredictability and brings it more in line with the expectations we have from the NFL playoffs. The #1 seed still gets a significant advantage from having the more powerful HFA all the way through to the Ultimus, and there's still a 50% chance that one of the conference winners will win the title. Again, that's before taking into account any performance differences, which we know will stretch this distribution even more.
There's definitely pros and cons to both systems, so interested to hear everyone's thoughts on playoff structures for a 14 team league like ours.
One of the Ultimus Week prompts at the end of last season asked us to share our thoughts around how the league structure could change with the addition of two expansion teams. I wrote that I believed the league should stick with 6 playoff teams, with the conference winners still getting a bye. I've since changed my mind on this, and would like to outline why.
6 teams with 2 getting a bye makes sense on paper as it mirrors exactly the NFL structure for each conference. It's not a free for all that runs the risk of regularly having losing teams in the playoffs and gives a good incentive to finishing top of the division.
However, there are two key differences between our structure and the NFL's:
- Home field advantage is far more powerful in the ISFL. In the NFL, the home team wins around 58% of the time. In the ISFL it's around 65%.
- The higher ranking team plays our championship game at home.
#1 seed - 33.6% (16.8%)
#2 seed - 28.3% (14.1%)
#3 seed - 11.9% (5.9%)
#4 seed - 10.9% (5.5%)
#5 seed - 7.9% (4.0%)
#6 seed - 7.4% (3.7%)
Now let's compare that to the ISFL, where the chances of winning the Ultimus based entirely on your seeding (and assuming a 65-35 homefield advantage) looks like this:
#1 seed - 42.3%
#2 seed - 29.6%
#3 seed - 10.4%
#4 seed - 8.8%
#5 seed - 4.7%
#6 seed - 4.3%
The ISFL's playoff structure is a lot more top heavy and predictable (S24 Ultimus aside!), with the conference winners winning the title 72% of the time. That's before even taking into account the fact that the better team probably got the higher seed. A close race in one division might result in a team narrowly edging another to the #1 seed instead of the #3. That alone more than quadruples their chances of winning the Ultimus!
Now let's take a look at what it would look like with an 8 team playoff structure:
#1 seed - 27.5%
#2 seed - 22.1%
#3 seed - 15.5%
#4 seed - 12.9%
#5 seed - 6.9%
#6 seed - 6.2%
#7 seed - 4.7%
#8 seed - 4.3%
Personally, this seems like a more desireable split that adds a little unpredictability and brings it more in line with the expectations we have from the NFL playoffs. The #1 seed still gets a significant advantage from having the more powerful HFA all the way through to the Ultimus, and there's still a 50% chance that one of the conference winners will win the title. Again, that's before taking into account any performance differences, which we know will stretch this distribution even more.
There's definitely pros and cons to both systems, so interested to hear everyone's thoughts on playoff structures for a 14 team league like ours.
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