*PLAYOFF ODDS!

[infinitempg]

So I ran 100 test sims for each of the 5 Week 13 Games, and here are the results*:

Code:

OVER 100 SIMS:

COL @ SJS +5.86, COL = 69%
NOLA @ CHI +6.36, NOLA = 70%
OCO @ BAL -3.57, BAL = 58%
PHI @ AUS -8.75, AUS = 72%
YKW @ ARI +0.16, YKW = 53%

* I am not responsible for you doing badly on predictions

Using these results, we can determine a number of probabilities for the playoffs.

NSFC Playoffs
The first and second seeds are locked up by (11-1) and (6-6) respectively. also have HFA locked up.

The third seed is between (4-8), (4-8), and (3-9).

are the 3rd seed if:

• 69.00% - win
• 15.62% - lose (31%) + lose (70%) + lose (72%)

are the third seed if:

• 9.30% - lose (31%) + win (30%)

and go to Points For tiebreaker if:

• 6.08% - lose (31%) + lose (70%) + win (28%)

have a 12 point advantage in Points For.


Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13


Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points

Testing shows that there is a 44.0% chance that score 12 or more points compared to what score, therefore of this 6.08%:

• 3.40% - is 3rd seed
• 2.68% - is 3rd seed

Summary:

• 87.30% - is 3rd seed
• 9.30% - is 3rd seed
• 3.40% - is 3rd seed

ASFC Playoffs
The first and second seeds are locked up by (9-3) and (8-4) respectively. ( are 6-2 in conference, are 5-3) They would also have HFA locked up in respective order should the be eliminated.

The third seed is between (6-6) and (5-7). are eliminated at (4-8).

are 3rd seed if:

• 72.00% - win
• 8.40% - lose + lose

and go to Points For tiebreaker if:

• 19.60% - lose + win

have a 78 point advantage in Points For.


Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13


Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points

Testing shows that there is a 0.000000141% chance that NOLA scores 78 or more points compared to , therefore of this 19.6%:

• 19.59999724% - is 3rd seed
• 0.00000276% - is 3rd seed

Summary:

• 99.99999724% - is 3rd seed
• 0.00000276% - is 3rd seed

[Dylandeluxe]

This is top notch holy shit.

I knew our chances were bad but holy shit NOLA

[iamslm22]

So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Raven]

Numbers

[TropicaliaCC]

I'm nerding out so hard over this article

[ValorX77]

Nola is pretty much mathematically eliminated, PHI still alive, great writeup

[Bigred1580]

So I ran 100 test sims for each of the 5 Week 13 Games, and here are the results*:
[/LIST]

Nerd

[ValorX77]

Nerd

You literally run the sim 200 times for a single game.
Who’s the nerd now?

[infinitempg]

You literally run the sim 200 times for a single game.
Who’s the nerd now?

i do 250

[flyeaglesfly29]

This is awesome and very well done!